August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

[Deweydog]

I'm telling you guys, I still like my call of cooling after it gets hot.

[Front Ranger]

Like I said, it's a sick world.

 

I prefer mad world.

 

[Jesse]

12z MOS guidance only gives us three 90+ days. And we will be up in the mountains camping for 2.5 of those. I like.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Looks nice...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Phil]

So a 1967 redux looking unlikely?

About as likely as the super niño rising from the dead.

[Phil]

Not really. A surprising number of homes here don't have AC (I think like 30-40%), and we get 90s all the time. Unless you have high humidity too, an excessive heat warning is just the NWS being drama queens.

Yeah, this.

[ShawniganLake]

GEM hasn't bought into the big cool down idea for next week yet. Although, the Euro and gfs look to be pretty much on the same page. GEM also throws up a huge ridge again the middle of next week.

[Jesse]

GEM hasn't bought into the big cool down idea for next week yet. Although, the Euro and gfs look to be pretty much on the same page. GEM also throws up a huge ridge again the middle of next week.

Cross your fingers!!!

[Jesse]

About as likely as the super niño rising from the dead.

So likely?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is robust with the cool down on Monday... then gradually turns warmer again next week.    Looks like another warm to hot spell later next week.

[Jesse]

12z Euro is pretty nice.

 

I would wager the stuff days 8-10 trends cooler based upon the ensembles.

[ShawniganLake]

Cross your fingers!!!

Don't really care much either way. Looks like august ends up warmer than anyone predicted, and I think I was the warmest. 75 is nice for work. 90 is nice for the lake/beach.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian is very different for Sunday and Monday just like its 00Z run.   This would be a major win for the Canadian if it verifies.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg

[BLI snowman]

PDX should see a record high on the 19th for the 2nd straight year!

[Phil]

So likely?

Lol. I'm not worried about it.

[Phil]

The pattern should transition into a more typical Niña/-PNA state towards the end of August and beginning of September. Will initially start with a GOA trough centered just offshore, followed by a general eastward systematic progression.

[Jesse]

Don't really care much either way. Looks like august ends up warmer than anyone predicted, and I think I was the warmest. 75 is nice for work. 90 is nice for the lake/beach.

Just giving you a hard time. I notice you mostly report warm model trends, but that is likely an effort to balance out the perceived cold bias here.

[TT-SEA]

This signal appears to have been wrong for the PNW when all is said and done for August.

 

Analogs for August, using ENSO/QBO with some PDO factored in. Despite the QBO problem, we can isolate some of the representative progressions in the timeframe of interest.

This is the aggregated signal for August:

 

 

[Deweydog]

Just giving you a hard time. I notice you mostly report warm model trends, but that is likely an effort to balance out the perceived cold bias here.

Caricatures!!!

[Jesse]

Charactitures!!!

Not really...

[Phil]

This signal appears to have been wrong for the PNW when all is said and done for August.

Here's August so far:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8E5F47F5-1760-40E9-A1B3-CFC8194E29D0_zpssrmch5zi.png

[TT-SEA]

Here's August so far:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8E5F47F5-1760-40E9-A1B3-CFC8194E29D0_zpssrmch5zi.png

 

 

Yeah... probably will not stay that way.    Certainly not going to be a cold month up here in western WA and OR like the analogs suggested.

[Front Ranger]

This signal appears to have been wrong for the PNW when all is said and done for August.

Yup, those using both macro and micro (local weather) tools failed to see a significantly warm August coming. Ending up near June's anomalies is most likely at this point.

 

Long range forecasting is hard.

[Jesse]

Here's August so far:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8E5F47F5-1760-40E9-A1B3-CFC8194E29D0_zpssrmch5zi.png

That is actually cooler for the NW overall than I was expecting.

 

Obviously the next 4-5 days will continue warming things up, though.

[TT-SEA]

Yup, those using both macro and micro (local weather) tools failed to see a significantly warm August coming. Ending up near June's anomalies is most likely at this point.

 

Long range forecasting is hard.

 

 

It is hard.   Lots of surprises along the way.  

[Phil]

Yeah... probably will not stay that way. Certainly not going to be a cold month up here in western WA and OR like the analogs suggested.

It'll be generally cool in the west, warm in the east as expected. The underlying signal is correct.

 

Fluke-ish intraseasonal forcing just threw a temporary wrench in things for a few weeks, leading to the entire circulation being shifted slightly east of the background state for a period of time. It'll revert back, though.

 

Unfortunately, intraseasonal forcing isn't predictable at range.

[Phil]

That is actually cooler for the NW overall than I was expecting.

 

Obviously the next 4-5 days will continue warming things up, though.

I think a lot of people misunderstand the purpose and limitations of analogs.

 

Analogs can only reflect the large scale, underlying background state & its associated tendencies..at least in the manner we're using them. Blips, orientations, shapes, peripheries, localized anomalies, and so forth cannot be seasonally analoged for in any way, shape, or form. It's physically impossible to even attempt something like that, given the physical realities involved.

[Phil]

For example, you can predict a seasonally dominant pattern on the large scale (for example, NPAC ridge, western US trough, tendency for polar blocking, etc). However, the exact orientation/location of the features within this background state, through time, cannot be predicted, for a multitude of reasons.

[TT-SEA]

I think a lot of people misunderstand the purpose and limitations of analogs.

 

Analogs can only reflect the large scale, underlying background state & its associated tendencies..at least in the manner we're using them. Blips, orientations, shapes, peripheries, localized anomalies, and so forth cannot be seasonally analoged for in any way, shape, or form. It's physically impossible to even attempt something like that, given the physical realities involved.

 

 

Of course... and we have seen that all summer up here.   Looks like all 3 of the meteorological summer months will be above normal in the Seattle area and northward... in a year when summer was supposed to peak in April and be completely over by July 10th.   I tease.  

 

Actually... Seattle has not had a below normal month since last November.  

[Phil]

Of course... and we have seen that all summer up here. Looks like each of the meteorological summer months will be above normal in the Seattle area and northward... in a year when summer was supposed to peak in April and be completely over by July 10th. I tease.

 

Actually... Seattle has not had a below normal month since last November.

I don't think anyone forecasted that.

 

The consensus was for a generally warm/ridgy spring (overall) and a cool/troughy summer (overall), with a particular emphasis on J/A/S in regards to the latter.

 

This has verified for the most part, localized/microscale anomalies aside. The mean 500mb height anomalies and full-column temperatures will reflect a trough in the PNW for J/A/S.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think anyone forecasted that.

 

The consensus was for a generally warm/ridgy spring (overall) and a cool/troughy summer (overall), with a particular emphasis on J/A/S in regards to the latter.

 

This has verified for the most part, localized/microscale anomalies aside. The mean 500mb height anomalies and full-column temperatures will reflect a trough in the PNW for J/A/S.

 

 

Then glad we scored a solidly above normal meteorological summer from Seattle northward this year.  One that did not even tail off... but rather appears to have rebounded in the final month.   

[Phil]

Then glad we scored a solidly above normal meteorological summer from Seattle northward this year. One that did not even tail off... but rather appears to have rebounded in the final month.

Isn't September typically more of a summer month than June in your area?

[TT-SEA]

Isn't September typically more of a summer month than June in your area?

 

Not sure.

 

June feels much more summery when its nice because of the high sun angle and long days.

 

Meteorological summer... and personal definition of summer (when kids are out of school)... is June - August.  

[BLI snowman]

Isn't September typically more of a summer month than June in your area?

 

Our summer follows the astronomical calendar fairly well. I'd say mid June to mid September is a good approximation for us. 

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles continue to be troughier than the operational from early next week onward.

[TT-SEA]

Euro ensembles continue to be troughier than the operational from early next week onward.

 

 

Way different later next week:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zXuhOv.png

[GobBluth]

Way different later next week:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zXuhOv.png

Ensembles support my preferred weather so it must be correct.

[TT-SEA]

Ensembles support my preferred weather so it must be correct.

 

 

I was backing up what Jesse reported... the ECMWF ensemble mean is much more troughy for later next week than the operational run.