August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Not the same having just planted trees.     And no natural lakes.   

 

We also have numerous days every winter where we are out doing yardwork in sweatshirts or even in t-shirts.     Its not cold enough to be annoying here.     The persistent rain is the biggest downside obviously.     

 

Could be a lot worse than either place.

 

Like others, the closest to my ideal would probably be northern Idaho/western MT. Though I would miss a lot of the options you have living near a big city - but even being a couple hours from Spokane wouldn't be bad.

[Deweydog]

I want to live at 46n, 130w.

 

Bombgenesis, baby!!! Very little in the way native trees, however.

[TT-SEA]

Tim's ringing the evening high bell!

 

 

There was an evening high.

 

At 5 p.m. the high was at 71 but the final number came in at 72.   

[Front Ranger]

71 at SEA today... hard to get an evening high at this point in the year.   

 

 

There was an evening high.

 

At 5 p.m. the high was at 71 but the final number came in at 72.   

 

[TT-SEA]

 

 

I did not say I expected it... just reporting that it happened.

[Deweydog]

PDX running a degree warmer tonight compared to last night. 30's might be tough.

[Jesse]

I want to live at 46n, 130w.

 

Bombgenesis, baby!!! Very little in the way native trees, however.

I hear there is a nice buoy for rent near there.

[Deweydog]

I hear there is a nice buoy for rent near there.

Tiny house nation!

[TT-SEA]

Troughing over the weekend gets a little less deep with every run.    Just doing the dual tab comparison on the 12Z and 00Z GFS.

 

The models seem to have over-estimated the strength of the GOA ridge in earlier runs.

 

This really feels like a wintertime failed arctic event in the models... one where the block ends up so weak that we are left with warm rain.   

[Bryant]

Everything has changed in a week!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why you're still allowed on this forum is something I have wondered for a long time. Grow up

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the 00Z GFS has 850mb temp at almost 15C on Sunday now.     I think there were some runs that had it as cold as 5C or even a little lower.

[Deweydog]

Troughing over the weekend gets a little less deep with every run. Just doing the dual tab comparison on the 12Z and 00Z GFS.

 

The models seem to have over-estimated the strength of the GOA ridge in earlier runs.

 

This really feels like a wintertime failed arctic event in the models... one where the block ends up so weak that we are left with warm rain.

I like how you added the last paragraph after the fact to try to get a rise out of him. Classic Tim/Jim stuff.

[TT-SEA]

Why you're still allowed on this forum is something I have wondered for a long time. Grow up

 

 

I did not make those comments about our climate.   If I did then you would have attacked me for saying negative things and complaining about our weather.    That is a fact.   

 

Then he proceeds to specifically call me out when the models show any amount of troughing.   I have never mentioned his name in any post about ridging.         

 

Come on.     

[Deweydog]

Interestingly... the 00Z GFS has 850mb temp at almost 15C on Sunday now. I think there were some runs that had it as cold as 5C or even a little lower.

There were also some runs which showed a heatwave for the weekend. Are the models still mishandling the tropics? Excessive Heat Watch for Sunday?

[TT-SEA]

I like how you added the last paragraph after the fact to try to get a rise out of him. Classic Tim/Jim stuff.

 

 

Not exactly... I don't think he really cares that much about what happens now.   Its all about the blocking being present at this time of year.

 

But it actually does not feel like a summer pattern.  I distinctly remember watching this sort of evolution in the winter on numerous occasions where a modeled arctic blast fails due to a weaker than anticipated block.    So I sort of understand what he is saying about it... don't think it means anything in 4 months though.

[TT-SEA]

There were also some runs which showed a heatwave for the weekend. Are the models still mishandling the tropics? Excessive Heat Watch for Sunday?

 

 

Yes... heat wave and then huge trough and then neither in reality.  

 

And yes... I think it is precisely caused by mishandled tropical activity in all the models.

[Deweydog]

Not exactly... I don't think he really cares that much about what happens now. Its all about the blocking be present at this time of year.

 

But it actually does not feel like a summer pattern. I distinctly remember watching this sort of evolution in the winter on numerous occasions where a modeled arctic blast fails due to a weaker than anticipated block. So I sort of understand what he is saying about it... don't think it means anything in 4 months though.

It's not unusual.

 

Troughs and ridges.

 

You're just being a punk. I suspect you'll dial it down soon as your inertia might be getting the best of you and sanctions may come into play.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS does still show a decent trough early next week.    

[Deweydog]

Yes... heat wave and then huge trough and then neither in reality.

 

And yes... I think it is precisely caused by mishandled tropical activity in all the models.

Brilliant.

[TT-SEA]

It's not unusual.

 

Troughs and ridges.

 

 

It sort of is unusual to have this level of blocking in the summer.  

[Deweydog]

You say that every year. And I am not being a punk. He has flipped from the depths of depression to child-like giddiness in the span of 7 days in August. When nothing important is happening either way. He started calling me out about troughing on Friday and I swear he was drinking at the time. It was strange. I don't dance around and mock him when its warm. Not only that... this trough has been lovely. A huge improvement over the heat and haze. Not sure why he thought I would hate it or why he would care.

He has issues. But your inability to deal with your inability to just roll with it overshadows those issues. It's ten times as inane, predictable and pointless. One thing Jim rarely does is get mean about it. That's the biggest difference and why people get so frustrated with you.

 

Learn.

[Front Ranger]

He has issues. But your inability to deal with your inability to just roll with it overshadows those issues. It's ten times as inane, predictable and pointless. One thing Jim rarely does is get mean about it. That's the biggest difference and why people get so frustrated with you.

 

Learn.

 

That and the fact that Tim tries to be sneaky and passive aggressive, while Jim just says what's on his mind and how he honestly feels.

[TT-SEA]

He has issues. But your inability to deal with your inability to just roll with it overshadows those issues. It's ten times as inane, predictable and pointless. One thing Jim rarely does is get mean about it. That's the biggest difference and why people get so frustrated with you.

 

Learn.

 

 

I have not been mean about it at all.   He has been mocking people for enjoying warm weather since he returned.    

 

Am I sitting here mocking Jim when the models show ridging and weather that I will enjoy?   Good luck finding that.   I just enjoy the warm weather.     I also love days like yesterday and today.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am fine where I live. I guess it could arctic blast a little more, but that is whatever. 

[snow_wizard]

The 0z is just a wee bit troughy.

 

The offshore blocking is NUTS for much of the run.

[Front Ranger]

I am fine where I live. I guess it could arctic blast a little more, but that is whatever. 

 

Ultimately, no matter how big a weather nut you are, happiness is not found in the climate you live in.

 

Home is where your heart is.

 

Live, laugh, love.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think of W. Maryland as a cultural wasteland. I lived in Oklahoma for 4 years. Let me tell you about a cultural wasteland...

[snow_wizard]

I am fine where I live. I guess it could arctic blast a little more, but that is whatever. 

 

I could live with the climate at 1500 feet here.  There are so many little issues that have kept that from being a choice for me at present.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z is just a wee bit trough.

 

The offshore blocking is NUTS for much of the run.

 

 

Troughing is weaker over the weekend.  

 

The point on the blocking is pretty valid.   Does not look like a summer pattern to me.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 0z is just a wee bit trough.

 

The offshore blocking is NUTS for much of the run.

 

Lets not blow it all now...But seriously. I would love a wet/cooler than average September followed by an October that is dry with normal to slightly below normal temps. That sounds perfect...

[TT-SEA]

I don't think of W. Maryland as a cultural wasteland. I lived in Oklahoma for 4 years. Let me tell you about a cultural wasteland...

 

3,000 feet in the Appalachians is a cultural wasteland.  

[Deweydog]

I have not been mean about it at all. He has been mocking people for enjoying warm weather since he returned.

 

Am I sitting here mocking Jim when the models show ridging and weather that I will enjoy? Good luck finding that. I just enjoy the warm weather. I also love days like yesterday and today.

Don't get me wrong, I find the double standard with him a little annoying, but he's always going to get a wide berth. People know that in the end he'll get his head right.

 

You on the other hand are always waiting for the moment to pounce with a disproportionate response which drags on and on. He's been an easy target because of the weather the last few years, but everyone here knows if the shoe was on the other foot you'd be way worse. We all remember summer 2010...

[TT-SEA]

I could live with the climate at 1500 feet here.  There are so many little issues that have kept that from being a choice for me at present.

 

 

Just do it.    Don't you find priorities change as you get older?  Talk about all being downhill from here... that is the way I am starting to feel in general as the years pass by.    Your health could be gone tomorrow.   Life is too short.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could live with the climate at 1500 feet here.  There are so many little issues that have kept that from being a choice for me at present.

 

I don't know what kind of properties are available up there at that elevation. I can say most affordable properties around my elevation down here are pretty run down. I got lucky to find a modest 1600' square foot home on 3 acres in a down market. Most properties up here have at least 10 acres which drives the value up, and if those properties are under 300K it is because the house is a complete dump and probably needs to be torn down. My property is surrounded on 3 sides by vacant 40 acre parcels so I have no idea why someone decided to carve out this 3 acre patch in 1974. My mortgage is slightly lower than the average price of a 1 bedroom apartment in Portland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just do it.    Don't you find priorities change as you get older.   Talk about all being downhill from here... that is the way I am starting to feel in general as the years pass by.    Your health could be gone tomorrow.   Life is too short.

 

My priorities have definitely changed. Observable weather means much less to me now...

[TT-SEA]

Don't get me wrong, I find the double standard with him a little annoying, but he's always going to get a wide berth. People know that in the end he'll get his head right.

 

You on the other hand are always waiting for the moment to pounce with a disproportionate response which drags on and on. He's been an easy target because of the weather the last few years, but everyone here knows if the shoe was on the other foot you'd be way worse. We all remember summer 2010...

 

 

Dude... there was almost nothing good about the October - April period.       It was as bad as I have seen in terms of persistent gloom and days with rain.   Virtually no offshore flow.     

 

There was also troughing for most of the period from mid-May through mid-July.    

 

The shoe is certainly not on my foot.    It is what it is.   In terms of good stretches of sunny weather... I have had parts of April and early May and the last month.    Sunny is what I care about most.  

 

I am honestly excited to see if we can score some blocking and have real snowy winter at my house this year.    It has to be better (and probably drier) than last winter.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ultimately, no matter how big a weather nut you are, happiness is not found in the climate you live in.

 

Home is where your heart is.

 

Live, laugh, love.

 

Deep

[Front Ranger]

3,000 feet in the Appalachians is a cultural wasteland.  

 

 

[Front Ranger]

594 heights into the Aleutians. That's be something.

[BLI snowman]

I used to spend hours poring over WRCC data looking for the "perfect" climate for my dream escape location. Sandpoint, Idaho came in pretty high on the list.

I think Sandpoint is pretty high on most of our lists, as is Coeur d'Alene.