Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tony]

Wunderground is saying rain then torch around Chicago. Are they just making stuff up because no one really knows at this point? They were calling for snow but they've been changing their minds. There's some hope for us, right?

GFS gives us a little snow but like Tom said, Euro/GEM has a better organized storm compared to GFS.

[Tom]

Wunderground is saying rain then torch around Chicago. Are they just making stuff up because no one really knows at this point? They were calling for snow but they've been changing their minds. There's some hope for us, right?

I don't really follow Wunderground.  At this stage in the game, it's hard to say what will happen around here.

[Niko]

12z EPS came in colder and farther SE overall. On my phone so can't post maps. 850's 0C line is roughly west/east along the IL/WI border and SLP track more due east from CO/KC to Buffalo, NY.

That is an excellento track for SMI. If it holds, we can be in for some real heavy duty weather here and also a lot on this forum.

[St Paul Storm]

3 pieces of energy phasing this weekend (hopefully). For those of you following every single model run....best of luck. We're going to see every possible scenario displayed on the models before Sunday. I'd say everyone from Montana to Kentucky is in the game. Fun times.

[jaster220]

3 pieces of energy phasing this weekend (hopefully). For those of you following every single model run....best of luck. We're going to see every possible scenario displayed on the models before Sunday. I'd say everyone from Montana to Kentucky is in the game. Fun times.

Yeppers, suddenly, just when everybody was ready to pull the plug on this winter it gets interesting again. Sure beats the boredom of mid-January.

 

Buckle-up Snowflakes

[jaster220]

I don't really follow Wunderground.  At this stage in the game, it's hard to say what will happen around here.

It's not too long before it's within 120 hrs of kick-off out in the plains though. Next couple days should be telling. Euro and GFS been liKE POLAR opposites all winter so no surprise there. GFS has been tardy to the south party the last two storms so hoping that's the case here as well.

[jaster220]

Stunned - GRR floats the "b-word" in their pm update

 

"The ECMWF ensembles from last night and the operational ECMWF from the

12z run favor a much farther south track that would result in a near

blizzard here Wed of next week. Meanwhile the GFS is farther north

so we would get snow to rain back to snow. At this point we will

continue to watch this as either way this could be one our more

impactful storms of the winter."

[gosaints]

Stunned - GRR floats the "b-word" in their pm update

 

"The ECMWF ensembles from last night and the operational ECMWF from the

12z run favor a much farther south track that would result in a near

blizzard here Wed of next week. Meanwhile the GFS is farther north

so we would get snow to rain back to snow. At this point we will

continue to watch this as either way this could be one our more

impactful storms of the winter."

Dont say the b word around niko

[Niko]

Stunned - GRR floats the "b-word" in their pm update

 

"The ECMWF ensembles from last night and the operational ECMWF from the

12z run favor a much farther south track that would result in a near

blizzard here Wed of next week. Meanwhile the GFS is farther north

so we would get snow to rain back to snow. At this point we will

continue to watch this as either way this could be one our more

impactful storms of the winter."

I think by the weekend, models should have a better handling of the track.

[jaster220]

Dont say the b word around niko

LOL was he the guy last winter who was using it for every storm?? I thought that guy's name was Tim and he was in the Chicago area???

[buzzman289]

it was  "Tim the weatherman" lol

[Madtown]

NOT THE B WORD!!!

[bud2380]

Perhaps we should put the real kiss of death on this storm and start a thread for it...

[jaster220]

Perhaps we should put the real kiss of death on this storm and start a thread for it...

Are you now INSANE!?!

[Tom]

00z GFS continues on the north trend...

[Tom]

Looking likely that there will be a storm system next Tue/Wed so I may start a thread later tonight or tomorrow morning. Would like to see tonight's full suite.

[bud2380]

GFS is way north of the euro. Doesn't bring in any precip at all to Iowa. Not exactly sure on the timing but it's seems to be coming in much faster than the euro as well

[Money]

GGEM has a strong clipper through IA/WI around the HR 120-126 frame with a strong low developing out in CO 

[Money]

NE gets hit decent on GGEM. 

[Snowlover76]

NE gets hit decent on GGEM.

Pics?

[Tom]

GFS is way north of the euro. Doesn't bring in any precip at all to Iowa. Not exactly sure on the timing but it's seems to be coming in much faster than the euro as well

I sure hope the Euro doesn't trend towards the GFS tonight.

[Tom]

00z GEFS not backing down on a warm/north storm system.

 

The LRC's long term long wave ridge in the central plains has been so dominant this season.

[bud2380]

More significant changes on the euro. Weaker and further south with SLP but less qpf and much less snow. Energy looks split and doesn't seem to phase until it gets well to the east of Chicago

[St Paul Storm]

Last nights model runs should prevent a thread for this non-event.

[jaster220]

Last nights model runs should prevent a thread for this non-event.

 

Thank you!

 

01.12z Euro painted some total weenie eye-candy of what COULD happen if all the pieces of energy floating in the NPAC should interact just right, whilst the GFS was never on that page with this complex scenario. It's handling the energies keeping them more as separate waves and amplifying the lead wave more-so and stubbornly remains north stream dominant. As we know, the phasing hasn't been happening for our region this winter (Chicago and S. Lakes) and we may well continue the theme. Or, things could fall into place as it becomes clearer and better sampled. Not surprising we'd see a ton of bouncing on this scenario. Nothing's really on or off the table at this distance and any thread would be premature imho. Meanwhile, CPC has begun to split that massive area of heavy precip into rain vs snow and for now show a decent compromise.

 

 

[gosaints]

Well at least the if its gonna be lame we stil have the blowtorch signal for the end of the month on the table

[Snowshoe]

I found this banter from NWS Green Bay comical

 

 

 

The forecast for Monday night and beyond remains quite the
challenge as models continue to have great difficulty trying to
resolve any phasing between the northern and southern streams,
location of surface cyclogenesis and eventual track/strength of
low pressure, potential of mixed precipitation if a northern track
is correct and the overall timing of this system. Will not get
into individual models since they are continuing to change with
each successive run. For example, the new CMC looks like
yesterday`s ECMWF. The old ECMWF looked like yesterday`s GFS. At
the moment, none of them agree on pretty much everything, thus
have followed the consensus solution which provide hi-end chance
or low-end likely pops for Monday night and Tuesday. It does
appear that most (if not all) of the precipitation would be snow,
although a mix is not totally out of the question over central or
east-central WI. Signs are that this system would be pulling away
from the western Great Lakes by next Wednesday, but have little
(if any) confidence on how all of this will play out. Anyone with
travel plans early next week will want to closely monitor later
forecasts and statements concerning this winter storm.

[Tony]

A few days ago I wrote that the next 10 days show nothing of interest and today I am writing the same. Next week it will continue to be the same as the pattern is not going to change. We can all continue to look at long range and hope but folks I believe the hope is just about over. I'm sure the lake areas will get their snow but don't think much of anything else will happen. Just not in the cards this winter.

[Tom]

On Gary Lezaks blog today, he is beginning to think that the mid February Arctic blast is off the table according to LRC Cycle 2 and blending it more with LRC Cycle 1.  It's beginning to look very meager in the foreseeable future.  As soon as we get the AO to play ball, of course, the pattern shifts into a warmer one...sheesh, you can't make this stuff up!

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Niko]

Like I said...models will need days to pinpoint this storm. I'd say, by Saturday or Sunday at the latest, they will tend to have some sort of an idea on what track it will take.

[Tony]

Like I said...models will need days to pinpoint this storm. I'd say, by Saturday or Sunday at the latest, they will tend to have some sort of an idea on what track it will take.

i think by the end of the 12z runs today you will have a pretty good idea of whats going to happen.

[Tom]

Overnight EPS runs trended towards the GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020200/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020200/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

 

06z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020206/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png

[gosaints]

best guess is the low flies right over the top of my head. moving rapidly of course

[Niko]

i think by the end of the 12z runs today you will have a pretty good idea of whats going to happen.

Tbh, If I were to take a guess, I would not hug the models at all and waste my valuable time on something that will turn out to be most likely snow to rain back to snow. I could be wrong because nothing is set in stone yet. This could turn out to be an all out snowstorm for some, who knows. Its the theme of this winter and I am sure you are aware of that by now. My guess right now is that this will eventually turn out ta be a warm cutter. This weekend is when I believe pieces will start falling in place, hopefully.

 

Btw: I am surprise I am at 28.3" so far for the season. Not bad considering the bad pattern.

[Tom]

For those interested, I started a 2017 Spring/Summer Outlook thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1509-2017-springsummer-outlook/

[Tom]

A little better pressing of the northern branch out in the northern Rockies on the 12z GFS so far...stronger HP in SW Canada...let's see how it unfolds...

[Tony]

A little better pressing of the northern branch out in the northern Rockies on the 12z GFS so far...stronger HP in SW Canada...let's see how it unfolds...

Northern piece much farther south then a 0z. Will see what happens

[Tom]

Northern piece much farther south then a 0z. Will see what happens

Ya, took a step towards yesterday's 12z Euro run in terms of track...SLP tracks from CO/KC/N IL/C MI and deepens considerably...

[Tom]

StormGeek special...

[Tony]

Ya, took a step towards yesterday's 12z Euro run in terms of track...SLP tracks from CO/KC/N IL/C MI and deepens considerably...

Just when I was ready to give up it sucks me right back in again. I hate this merry-go-round model runs.