Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017020112/162/prateptype.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017020112/168/prateptype.us_mw.png

[Money]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017020112/180/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Tony]

How does the Bering sea rule correlate with this storm ?

The storm has phased over the deep south and has rapid intensification. Don't know where the actual path of the storm will track but it does show a strong storm. The models have gone away from a monster storm but may come back in future runs with 1 major storm instead of 2 waves currently being shown.

[buzzman289]

Seen it on another place , just wanted to know , thx Tony.

[Money]

A lot more blocking showing up on the euro through 120:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017020112/120/sfcmslp.conus.png

[gosaints]

A lot more blocking showing up on the euro through 120:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017020112/120/sfcmslp.conus.png

better chance at a bowler...  

[gosaints]

ensembles are literally all over the map

[Money]

gosaints crush job this run..

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017020112/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

[Money]

12+ from eastern MN through most of WI and MI 

[bud2380]

Much further south with 850s this run compared to yesterday. Even has snow as far south as i80 in iowa

[Snoorani]

how about Chicago?

[bud2380]

SLP went from UP of MI yesterday to S MI today. So significant improvement for us snow starved in Iowa and Illinois

[bud2380]

how about Chicago?

Accuweather text output seemed to show some snow for Chicago as well. It's a little hard to tell for sure but regardless it was an improvement

[Snoorani]

when you get a chance can you post the map. thanks

[bud2380]

If accuweather ever updates it I will. That site sucks. I like the text output when it works but next year I'll just pay the extra and subscribe to wxbell

[hlcater]

Surface low goes thru S MO and N AR. Far cry from the GFS.

 

MI kill run...

[Money]

Surface low goes thru S MO and N AR. Far cry from the GFS.

 

MI kill run...

 

you have maps at all for the snow?

[Tom]

Come on -AO...work your magic!!! What a turn of events if this storm pans out to something big for most of the sub forum.

[Tom]

The Alaskan Ridge is getting strong which is knifing down the arctic HP in SW Canada and bleeds into the Dakotas by Day 5....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020112/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_6.png

[Tom]

By Day 6, the upper level ridge near Greenland is getting a tad stronger when comparing to its previous (2) 12z runs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020112/ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

[Snoorani]

JMA also looks good

[Tom]

The storm has phased over the deep south and has rapid intensification. Don't know where the actual path of the storm will track but it does show a strong storm. The models have gone away from a monster storm but may come back in future runs with 1 major storm instead of 2 waves currently being shown.

12z Euro certainly trended this way today. Lots of time to figure out the fine details.

[Money]

JMA:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017020112/jma_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017020112/jma_z500_mslp_us_8.png

[hlcater]

Map. Pretty good for many on sub. Heck I'd take it.

 

[jaster220]

Come on -AO...work your magic!!!    What a turn of events if this storm pans out to something big for most of the sub forum.

 

..and the plot thickens!!    Correct me if I'm wrong, but the clipper and the NE/IA storm both trended a bit south from initial model projections didn't they? The Plains system was looking like another ND special and some even had it north of the border. The clipper on the GFS had like ZERO SNOW for SMI and yet mby was ground zero - just sayin' 

[Tony]

Map. Pretty good for many on sub. Heck I'd take it.

 

image.jpeg

I would like to see more double digits but it's a start in the right direction.

[jaster220]

I would like to see more double digits but it's a start in the right direction.

 

Here ya go, neighbor

 

 

[Tony]

Here ya go, neighbor

 

20170201 Euro 12z 204hr snowfall.JPG

Nice...you guys do well on the other side of the lake. Need it to come in further south and more frozen precip.

[Tony]

Can't tell on the Euro run but need this to go negative tilt which would help slow it down some and draw in colder air.

[jaster220]

Can't tell on the Euro run but need this to go negative tilt which would help slow it down some and draw in colder air.

 

There's time for more improvements, and yes that'd be one right there. Not sure how much more we could take over here from what it's showing now though

[gosaints]

There's time for more improvements, and yes that'd be one right there. Not sure how much more we could take over here from what it's showing now though

The big takeaway from the EURo is a more organized ejection of energy is still on the table

[BrianJK]

From earlier today....  Curious to see how this evolves.  Hopefully, northern woods get crushed but with my luck, wouldn't be at all surprised if this managed to miss both my places and nail central and southern WI.

 

All eyes will be on the impending storm Monday night into Tuesday
as low pressure develops somewhere over the central High Plains
and tracks east-northeast toward the Great Lakes. The problem is
that the models have serious timing issues with the GFS racing the
surface low to Lake Ontario by 00z Wednesday, the CMC follows the
GFS track but only has the surface low over northwest Indiana,
while the ECMWF has a more northern track into central WI. Plenty
of gulf moisture will have been tapped by Tuesday, so somewhere
over the Upper Midwest will be the potential of a good snowstorm.
Just too much uncertainty yet to even hazard an educated guess on
this system, other than to stay tuned in the coming days,
especially if you have travel plans early next week.
 

[jaster220]

CPC says there's gonna be something big and wet but what exactly, not sure yet

 

 

 

(7th seems a day early??)

[Money]

The storm starts on the 7th

[Snowshoe]

CPC says there's gonna be something big and wet but what exactly, not sure yet

 

There's a joke in there somewhere! 

 

Liking the south trends so far. Just want to stay on the cold side.

[Tom]

12z EPS came in colder and farther SE overall. On my phone so can't post maps. 850's 0C line is roughly west/east along the IL/WI border and SLP track more due east from CO/KC to Buffalo, NY.

[gosaints]

Here they are

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020112/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

[Tom]

GFS/EURO continue to be night and day...

[gimmesnow]

Wunderground is saying rain then torch around Chicago. Are they just making stuff up because no one really knows at this point? They were calling for snow but they've been changing their minds. There's some hope for us, right?