Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[gosaints]

A few days ago i though the 1st half of the month held promise.  Now the pattern looks much lamer

[jaster220]

To be fair-n-balanced, every time I've gotten some cold and decent snow, that's been the signal to lookout for an incoming torch! If we've turned over a new leaf with the pattern, somehow that won't happen this go-around. The way it's been, I don't expect it to take very long to find out ..

[Tom]

Spring Training weather in the west/southwest looks prime time for baseball season.  Near record warmth is on the table for the first half of Feb....

[Tom]

GEFS continue baking the west and keeping the east colder....might be a nation divided...no pun intended (given the status of the nation as a whole)...reminds me of Feb '15...but not to that extreme....yet???

[Tom]

Euro trending towards the GFS for this weekend.  Looks like a light/mod snow event is on the table right now.  If anyone has snow maps it would be appreciated.

[bud2380]

No maps yet but .08" qpf for CEdar Rapids Saturday night. About a quarter inch for the twin cities so as usual heaviest band looks to setup further north

[bud2380]

.08" for ORD as well

[Tom]

.08" for ORD as well

How does that second storm look for Day 8/9???  Looks like a digging storm near the Lakes/Midwest.

[bud2380]

Not sure yet Tom. Accuweather is being it's typical glitchy self and is only showing 7 days of output instead of 10.

[hlcater]

 

Subtract 6-7" in that heavy band, and about an inch elsewhere.

 

[Tom]

That storm correlates with the LRC as well.  Might be a day or two quicker but has the look of the Dec 10th/11th storm which had a CO wave eject out into SW KS and tracked E/NE.  

[jaster220]

@ Euro

 

Nice map there! Skilling says things will be looking better in that time-frame as well fwiw.

[Madtown]

[Niko]

From NOAA:

 

Cloudy skies
return Sunday as two low pressure systems (one centered over
southern Ontario and a second positioned over the Ohio Valley) both
slide east throughout the day, bringing the chance for snow.

[Tom]

Subtract 6-7" in that heavy band, and about an inch elsewhere.

 

image.jpeg

Nearly identical placement to where the heavy snow band formed back in December.  Little more love in NE peeps though.

[Tom]

Nice storm forming next Tue/Wed on the 00z GFS. Right on schedule and hope this one can spread the wealth. Little warm this run but should be next storm to track that is noteworthy.

[Tom]

Man, this thing has potential to be something big...if it can phase, it will become a monster storm that can unleash the hounds of the #PV...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013100/gfs_z500_vort_namer_32.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013100/gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

[hlcater]

Phasing and deepening as the storm heads east have been hard to come by this winter. 10/10 if sheared out trash and rainers are your thing however.

[Tom]

Phasing and deepening as the storm heads east have been hard to come by this winter. 10/10 if sheared out trash and rainers are your thing however.

There have been phasers but tracked to the NW of the subforum...unfortunately...nonetheless, its a Day 7/8 storm and many more runs to go.

[hlcater]

Stop. I need to whine, let me be!

[bud2380]

Models have the low tracking over Iowa again. It's amazing how that keeps happening. I'm not remotely optimistic here. I'm actually rooting for an early spring and a warmup now. It hasn't been a long winter in Iowa but I'm over it at this point anyway.

[james1976]

Yup if Feb ends up torching then its basically onto spring. Hard to not have spring fever when its 40 and the days are getting longer.

[Tom]

00z EPS...warm cutter certainly on the table...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017013100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_9.png

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

YUK

[Tom]

Contradicting teleconnections....+NAO but a -AO...its a season where you can't have both...arggg!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[gosaints]

Contradicting teleconnections....+NAO but a -AO...its a season where you can't have both...arggg!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

You almost cant make it up how things havent lined up.  The ingredients have been there just pretty much never in the right order

[Tom]

You almost cant make it up how things havent lined up.  The ingredients have been there just pretty much never in the right order

I would say, "wait till next year"...but the Cub's won the World Series!  However, I will say, the AO will be more of a player out west as to how far south the northern branch presses, ultimately deciding where this storm will track.  Due to the NAO being in a positive state, the system will prob zip on by.

[Tony]

Miss to the north, miss to the south or it shears out has been the theme all winter and all bets say it will continue....for Chicago folks that is. No reason to think otherwise. Next weeks storm will be a rainer except for the usual winners this season.

[gosaints]

I would say, "wait till next year"...but the Cub's won the World Series!  However, I will say, the AO will be more of a player out west as to how far south the northern branch presses, ultimately deciding where this storm will track.  Due to the NAO being in a positive state, the system will prob zip on by.

On the bright side some places could score some severe weather

[Tom]

A big run on the 12z GFS for early next week...but tracking thru IA...984mb bomb...

[Tom]

GoSaints weenie run...

[Tom]

12z GFS...big snowstorm in the making...question is, who will benefit???  GFS gets it down to a 983mb storm in N IL...nice phase...hoping for the best around here but doesn't seem like the stars want to align.

[Tony]

A big run on the 12z GFS for early next week...but tracking thru IA...984mb bomb...

Can it really get any worse for this winter!!

[gosaints]

GoSaints weenie run...

ya without a doubt

[Tom]

Can it really get any worse for this winter!!

It absolutely can't...I hear ya loud and clear...

[Tony]

And the secondary that pops will go southeast of us.

[Tom]

And the secondary that pops will go south of us.

LOL...

[Tom]

What happens with that wave tracking along the U.S./Canadian border on Monday will dictate where the baro zone sets up and ultimately the main storm will track.

[Niko]

And the secondary that pops will go southeast of us.

Dont worry, still plenty of time for changes.

[Tom]

And the secondary that pops will go southeast of us.

Missing all these systems makes me really consider heading to AZ and enjoy some 70's/80's next week...