Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

YUK

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011900/126/snod.conus.png

Over done for the Northwoods of WI/MN...might be a snow pack killer for your area though...

[hlcater]

Hopefully this trends in the direction of GHD II. Obviously it won't be as strong, but a big E-W bowling ball across the entire sub would be nice.

[Tom]

12z EPS very similar in terms of track and 850's compared to Op run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017011912/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

vs Op...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011912/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

[BrianJK]

Over done for the Northwoods of WI/MN...might be a snow pack killer for your area though...

 

Agree - Eagle River had an 18" depth as of this morning and way more than that in the UP.  I don't see that completely vanishing.

[Tom]

Agree - Eagle River had an 18" depth as of this morning and way more than that in the UP.  I don't see that completely vanishing.

Did they have any ice up there?  I know around Green Bay area they had close to 1/2" of ice.  That must look real cool to have a sheet of ice over a deep snow pack and prob prevent more snow from melting.

[Tom]

If the GFS is right, zonal wind up at 10mb may tank to "0"...might get interesting if this trends even farther negative... 

 

[gosaints]

Agree - Eagle River had an 18" depth as of this morning and way more than that in the UP.  I don't see that completely vanishing.

There you go looking at my posts again

[jaster220]

GHD-1 had a different set up with a monster trough diving into the SW region and then the storm cut up towards S IL/IN.  However, if you remember the Super Bowl/GHD storm of 2015 we had 2 pieces of energy that needed to phase in the Plains.  I remember it quite vividly where the models completely lost the storm 3-4 days out because the main energy was coming out of the Baja/Mexico region where there isn't much data.  

 

There is a part of the LRC which is correlating a storm system with similar characteristics to the GHD '15 storm.  We'll see how this pattern evolves as the GEFS are strikingly similar with a northern branch diving down and picking up the southern branch coming out of the SW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011912/gfs-ens_uv250_namer_55.png

 

:lol:   I remember clearly the last minute trends of 2015, with so many GHD storms, you just need to be clear which you mean there buddy.   And yes, ur correct on the similarities to 2015. Now to see if it actually has a clue @ hr 300 about us finally getting a similar share the wealth CO bowler!

[jaster220]

Hopefully this trends in the direction of GHD II. Obviously it won't be as strong, but a big E-W bowling ball across the entire sub would be nice.

 

He was talking about a map for 12.5 days out, not this storm next week, This one seems intent on going over S Lake Mich. Would take radical changes to get it where I need it.

[jaster220]

IMG_0511.PNG

 

Mby's prolly fooked on this storm, but just for giggles, can you show one state east for us MI peeps? Thx

[hlcater]

He was talking about a map for 12.5 days out, not this storm next week, This one seems intent on going over S Lake Mich. Would take radical changes to get it where I need it.

I see that now, probably should've looked a bit closer

[Money]

He was talking about a map for 12.5 days out, not this storm next week, This one seems intent on going over S Lake Mich. Would take radical changes to get it where I need it.

Where do you need it?

[Money]

Leaving for Vegas on Wed.

 

This system better not delay the flight

[BrianJK]

Did they have any ice up there?  I know around Green Bay area they had close to 1/2" of ice.  That must look real cool to have a sheet of ice over a deep snow pack and prob prevent more snow from melting.

 

Yes, but only minor amounts.  Nothing like what GB saw. 

 

Horrible timing of the warm up with derby racing and parade scheduled this weekend.

[Niko]

While SEMI stands a much better chance of a "clipping", the bigger trends overnight are painting yet another NE storm. We (Lwr Lks) are in such a Nino-esque crap pattern. You just can't make this stuff up. Cohen's gonna be 0 for 2 for this winter and last.

End of next week looks like some snowshowers will be hitting us, but, I just dont see any big storms. Very stubborn pattern we are in, unfortunately.

[Niko]

Couple of rainmakers on the horizon with mild, pacific air dominating for SMI. Arctic air remains locked up in Canada for now.

 

FWIW: Im thinking that February should be a better month in terms of snow and cold temps and could last well into March. This could be a backloaded winter for some.

[Tom]

18z GFS takes the low from OMA to MKE...takes it down to 991mb in NE and pretty much maintains its strength.  Need this to track farther south to spread the wealth a bit better.

[Hoosier]

That early week system needs to slow down some to be in a position to force the follow up storm farther south. The downside with that is that it would likely cause some shearing/weakening as it comes east, but that is the way to get this on a farther south track.

[jaster220]

Where do you need it?

Over IND, not ORD, certainly not MKE

[jaster220]

CPC must be siding with the south camp. They have pretty much all of Neb and most of Iowa covered Tuesday, they took Weds snow off. Might be keeping the door open for some of us further east to get in the action?

[Niko]

At least there are signs of colder weather coming late next week. That's a start in the right direction.

[Thunder98]

CPC is likely going off of CFSv2 trends for their monthly outlook for February.  The latest 10 day trend suggesting a colder/wetter overall look for the sub forum.  The model has done fairly well for Dec/Jan trends.  This leads me to believe the storm track will be shunted farther south next month along with other important factors.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

CPC has been wrong all season with the California precip forecast. They had predicted a very dry January for California.

[Tom]

CPC has been wrong all season with the California precip forecast. They had predicted a very dry January for California.

I saw that and your right about it. Didn't CFSv2 get it somewhat right? I don't have a map handy as I'm on my phone.

[bud2380]

gfs stays north

[bud2380]

GGEM hits NE hard; can't see what happens beyond that yet.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[bud2380]

ratios on the GFS are extremely low due to warm surface temps.  Well under 10:1 per pivotal. 

[gosaints]

ratios on the GFS are extremely low due to warm surface temps. Well under 10:1 per pivotal.

Ya its so warm at spots at the surface like 35-36 where decent snow is falling

[bud2380]

Probably time to make a thread for this storm. Looks very likely to happen at this point, just a matter of where. I haven't had measurable snow for a month. If we have it's only been a couple tenths.

[clintbeed1993]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1495-january-24th25-possible-winter-storm-probable-nebraska-screwjob/

 

Started the thread.  Title is satirical.  We need a sense of humor on this forum after what has transpired lately.

[gosaints]

Like clockwork when the GFS flips cooler it flips boring

[Tony]

I'm ready to move onto February as this month just plain out sucked. If February fails then bring on an early spring so I can stop looking at the model runs that never pan out. Just tired of cloudy and rain.

[Niko]

I'm ready to move onto February as this month just plain out sucked. If February fails then bring on an early spring so I can stop looking at the model runs that never pan out. Just tired of cloudy and rain.

I totally agree 100%.

[Niko]

The extended still looks colder, but dry and the snow chances have vanished away from my 7 day extended forecast. Looks like models are not seeing anything meaningful in terms of storminess. 

[jaster220]

Pretty sure I saw Judah Cohen riding the Brazilian; they looked to be in a nose-dive with flames shooting out the tail..

[gosaints]

Judah has had a poor couple years

[Andrew NE]

That is one odd looking clipper that has shown up on the GFS from time to time in the long range, thing goes straight north to south.

[Niko]

Nothing too extraordinary in terms of BIG storms look to pop up down the road.

[Tom]

@ IndianaJohn, GEFS looking interesting for your chances of a snow event on Superbowl Sunday...after a period of a NW Flow pattern to end January, opening week of February looks to turn active as pacific storms target the west.

[Niko]

From TWC:

 

 

La Niña has played a significant role in temperatures over the last few months but is expected to end and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by this spring. How the atmosphere responds to this transition will be an important factor in temperatures across the contiguous U.S.

(MAPS: Average High and Low Temperatures)

"The pressing question is how long the La Niña background state will last; if it persists into spring, the general warmth will likely continue, but a quick reversal may mean cooler risks," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

When factoring in the temperatures experienced so far this winter and climate model forecasts, the most likely outcome for spring appears to be cool conditions in the North, while the southern tier experiences warmer-than-average temperatures.

 

I am guessing equal chances for SMI...

[jaster220]

From TWC:

 

 

La Niña has played a significant role in temperatures over the last few months but is expected to end and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by this spring. How the atmosphere responds to this transition will be an important factor in temperatures across the contiguous U.S.

(MAPS: Average High and Low Temperatures)

"The pressing question is how long the La Niña background state will last; if it persists into spring, the general warmth will likely continue, but a quick reversal may mean cooler risks," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

When factoring in the temperatures experienced so far this winter and climate model forecasts, the most likely outcome for spring appears to be cool conditions in the North, while the southern tier experiences warmer-than-average temperatures.

 

I am guessing equal chances for SMI...

I think full on torch. Winter was the 2 wks before Christmas really.