Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Niko]

50s are gone...now 40s are expected. Couple of rain chances in between. The cold air coming next week still has me above normal to maybe near normal. I cant even get below normal for highs.

[gosaints]

Another spring time cutoff in january on the gfs

[Jaycee]

It's January, but i'm so ready for Spring. This weather is a bummer, has been since November honestly.

 

Storm chasing is always awesome, and we usually do really well out here with getting some severe weather. Bring it. I don't think I can withstand another 33/rain.

[St Paul Storm]

GFS and GEM locked and loaded for several runs now. Only 186 hours to go....

[gosaints]

GFS and GEM locked and loaded for several runs now. Only 186 hours to go....

Lol. Ill go to bismarck for this one

[Snowshoe]

Only 186 eh? 

[St Paul Storm]

Glad you caught the sarcasm!

[WBadgersW]

Look on the bright side, we aren't in a drought...

[Tom]

Looks like the GEFS members are picking up on the Split Flow & #PV part of the LRC which occurred back on Oct 8th-14th.

 

There should be a storm targeting So Cal region late January.  According to the LRC and East Asian Theory, best guess right now would be sometime around the 28th-30th of January.

 

Strong storm targeting Japan in 2-3 days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fe_13.png

 

 

GEFS already showing lower heights in the SW during this period...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011712/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_54.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011712/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

[Tony]

I like your optimism Tom because I have lost all faith in this winter. It would have to be a BIG turnaround in the weather to save this winter. Each model run just seems to get worse as we move forward towards February.

[Tom]

I like your optimism Tom because I have lost all faith in this winter. It would have to be a BIG turnaround in the weather to save this winter. Each model run just seems to get worse as we move forward towards February.

I'm just trying to point out some things I'm looking for in the future.  Your right, this winter has turned out to be quite warm in respect to overall duration of cold and the fact that we have not had a favorable storm track. I knew it would be a volatile winter and my gut feeling was that places near GoSaints/Snowshoe stood a better chance at seeing consistent snow cover.  We've only had about 20 days of real wintry weather in December that was fun.  Except for that, it has been non existent, unless of course your in Michigan or travel roughly 200 miles N/NW of here where they have had snow OTG since early December.

[bud2380]

At hour 168 euro with a Colorado low developing and moving into NW Kansas. Looks like it's more east/west than the GFS we'll see on the next frame. 850s bisect Iowa.

[bud2380]

Welp not good for Iowans. Low tracks right through northeast Iowa.

[Tony]

Only if we had some cold air to work with.

[St Paul Storm]

Hmmm.....

[NEJeremy]

Can we just lock in the 12Z GFS for Nebraska?!

[gabel23]

Hmmm.....

Anybody have a snow map?? Thanks! I love getting my hopes up, we have a lot of snow at this range and I like looking at what could have been! LOL. 

[hlcater]

With no high pressure in Canada, I see no reason it shouldn't cut north. Someone was saying it would likely be an E-W track. If someone could tell me why, that'd be great.

[jaster220]

Can we just lock in the 12Z GFS for Nebraska?!

 

Good luck locking anything anywhere with these models. Yesterday's Euro optimism that we'd maybe finally hopefully could get just a token amount of blocking to keep that storm heading east lasted a whopping 1 freaking day! 24 hrs later, we're right back to Nino trackers. I thought 2011-12 was a stupid winter, this may trump that in futility dept.

[Tom]

With no high pressure in Canada, I see no reason it shouldn't cut north. Someone was saying it would likely be an E-W track. If someone could tell me why, that'd be great.

Sure, today's run has no HP in southern Canada compared to yesterday's run. Need to see what happens with the cut off storm first.

 

Ensembles not looking promising at the moment.

[jaster220]

Sure, today's run has no HP in southern Canada compared to yesterday's run. Need to see what happens with the cut off storm first.

 

Ensembles not looking promising at the moment.

 

..and unfortunately, this hasn't been the winter of "come-backs", if you get my drift.

[Niko]

Watch us all get blasted with record breaking snow and frigid weather from February til April. Then, we all be saying, "Where was this great pattern when it was January".....

[gosaints]

Blocking generally survives 12 to 24..... Hours

[gabel23]

The kiss of death, ha!!

[Snowlover76]

I want what they are smoking.

[Tom]

00z GFS still trying to paint a snow storm for NE on the 24th/25th...leaves some energy behind for it to wrap up into a stronger storm though...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011800/gfs_z500_vort_us_30.png

 

 

[Andrew NE]

Good snows for central and western NE.

[Money]

GEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011800/204/snku_acc.conus.png

[jcwxguy]

how is the euro

[Grizzcoat]

how is the euro

 

[Tom]

GEFS is predicting a series of perturbations on the PV over the next 2 weeks.  The strongest of the series is forecast by very late January which should displace the PV off the pole...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011806/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_26.png

 

 

 

The Arctic should block up to open February with a very warm Strat...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011806/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

[St Paul Storm]

40 hr snowstorm on the 12z GFS for the Dakotas and parts of MN.

 

Candy.

[Tony]

40 hr snowstorm on the 12z GFS for the Dakotas and parts of MN.

 

Candy.

That's where winter has been so does not surprise me.

[Niko]

No change in this stubborn pattern, at least for my area that is. Rain chances followed by cloudy skies and fog with temps in the 40s and a few 50s from time to time. Very little sunshine and absolutely "No Snow" in the forecast at all. It does turn colder late next week, but, only to bring temps back to near normal or even slightly above normal still. Well, for those people who don't like winter out there, they seemed to be getting their wish so far.

[Niko]

I am hoping we get a good size snowstorm or 2 before this winter is ova. If we do not, then, it will be a very disappointed winter overall. At least now, we can still say that there is still hope. Afterall, we do have all of February and March to go through. By Mid March, I am into Spring mode anyways.

[jaster220]

The kiss of death, ha!!

 

Has been this winter, that's for sure, other than a few days early last month. They were on a roll around the first week of Dec over my way.

[East Dubzz]

The worst part is how promising this winter started off. I pretty much expect every storm to cut west of here now.

[Tom]

GEFS have been south of the GFS Op...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011812/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_29.png

 

 

At this stage, still looks like parts of NE/IA/MN/WI are in the game...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011812/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_26.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011812/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_28.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011812/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_31.png

[gosaints]

Pretty typical for ensembles to be south of the operationals at this range

[bud2380]

What are teleconnections favoring? Northerly track or further south?