Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020706/gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png

[Tom]

How quickly things are changing.  If the GEFS are right, Winter is coming back with a vengeance as the hemispheric pattern gets blocked.  CPC likely will bust bad from being "trigger" happy to issue a nation wide torch for February.  I like where this pattern is heading as it can certainly spin up some big storms.

 

Anyone still doubting the high latitude blocking to lock this month???  IMO, I think the AO is cycling in a different manner and is likely heading towards the deep -AO state it did back in October.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

Feb 20th-26th EURO Weeklies forecast indicating a very wet pattern as the PAC jet dives south into CA..

 

 

 

 

GEFS with more widespread cold Week 2 from the Rockies into the East....with the storm coming out of the Gulf around Valentines Day, current guidance is suggest it to track  up the Apps/EC.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020706/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png

[jaster220]

I have snow in my forecast for Friday. It looks interesting. Anyone aware of this system. I have no clue where it is coming from?

 

From the "Grinch with an inch"   SWMI screw-job. Hope you coat your grass buddy

[gosaints]

EURO weeklies indicating more fun for the dakotas??

[Tom]

EURO weeklies indicating more fun for the dakotas??

I doubt its right in the Dakotas, but in the SW its spot on...

[OKwx2k4]

No NAO help usually means no interest from me.

[Niko]

From the "Grinch with an inch"   SWMI screw-job. Hope you coat your grass buddy

I'll accept an inch. Need to add more snowcover on my grass. Todays rain will wash away nearly everything, except for any big snowpacks that are still around.

[Niko]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

Interesting!!

[Tom]

No NAO help usually means no interest from me.

If the AO tanks as much as the GEFS are suggesting, you may still be in the game.  A slightly -NAO still can alter the storm track deep into the south.

[jaster220]

EURO weeklies indicating more fun for the dakotas??

 

Or the EC no doubt

[Tom]

Or the EC no doubt

I can promise you this, if the amount blocking that is now almost certain to develop, suppression will take over for the Dakotas.

[gosaints]

I can promise you this, if the amount blocking that is now almost certain to develop, suppression will take over for the Dakotas.

So the GEFS has the most blocking setting up right??? Isnt it also the model that is now the driest during that time period??  

[Tom]

12z GEFS not backing down in the medium/long range.  In fact, Siberian HP to take over the pole starting around the 18th and will have eyes for N.A. to finish off Feb and open March.

 

So the GEFS has the most blocking setting up right??? Isnt it also the model that is now the driest during that time period??  

Blend the CFSv2/Weeklies/Euro Weeklies and you can get a better idea.  Drier the farther north you go.

[gosaints]

12z GEFS not backing down in the medium/long range.  In fact, Siberian HP to take over the pole starting around the 18th and will have eyes for N.A. to finish off Feb and open March.

 

Blend the CFSv2/Weeklies/Euro Weeklies and you can get a better idea.  Drier the farther north you go.

Its hard to blend them when they are all showing completely different patterns.

[Tom]

Hard to say these are dry???  I'm sure you can find the doughnut holes....some rainers mixed in earlier on before the cold pool locks in.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

[gosaints]

CFSv2= Blowtorch

GEPS= Blowtorch

GEFS= COld and dry.... zzzzzzzz

Weeklies= From what I have seen wet and mild

[Tom]

Its hard to blend them when they are all showing completely different patterns.

I guess its up to you to try and figure it out if your a forecaster.  #Winning

[gosaints]

Hard to say these are dry???  I'm sure you can find the doughnut holes....some rainers mixed in earlier on before the cold pool locks in.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

What i am saying is during the period in which blocking sets up it is dry......

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020712/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_9.png

[gosaints]

I guess its up to you to try and figure it out if your a forecaster.  #Winning

We had the same battle the end of last winter.....

 

#WON

[Tom]

We had the same battle the end of last winter.....

 

#WON

 

#El Nino

[gosaints]

#El Nino

No doubt was an easy win....

[BrianJK]

How quickly things are changing.  If the GEFS are right, Winter is coming back with a vengeance as the hemispheric pattern gets blocked.  CPC likely will bust bad from being "trigger" happy to issue a nation wide torch for February.  I like where this pattern is heading as it can certainly spin up some big storms.

 

Anyone still doubting the high latitude blocking to lock this month???  IMO, I think the AO is cycling in a different manner and is likely heading towards the deep -AO state it did back in October.

 

 

 

I am.  But then again, I have turned biased as I no longer have any desire for winter weather (around these parts).

[Tom]

No doubt was an easy win....

For March...the whole winter overall everyone agreed was predicted above normal.  Were there some cold spells???  Yes, but didn't hold and I don't think many expected it to during a Super Nino.  I did think Spring would trend colder as it did at times but not like a usual NINO pattern where early and late cold sticks around.

[Tom]

I am.  But then again, I have turned biased as I no longer have any desire for winter weather (around these parts).

Same here, but would you rather have cold/wet or cold/snow???  Pattern doesn't look favorable in my eyes for a blow torch in Feb around here.  I'd rather have a blow torch show up end of March when normal high temps are much higher than they are in Feb.

[gosaints]

For March...the whole winter overall everyone agreed was predicted above normal.  Were there some cold spells???  Yes, but didn't hold and I don't think many expected it to during a Super Nino.  I did think Spring would trend colder as it did at times but not like a usual NINO pattern where early and late cold sticks around.

I think it is probably understood by all the in terms of weather bias yours would be towards cold/long range blocks coming thru whereas mine is the opposite.  Nothing wrong with that.

 

Plus there is plenty of guidance that is against the GFS/GEFS

[indianajohn]

with all the rain I think I'm gonna get a head start and fetilize my lawn...this is crazy!!!!

[Tony]

Nothing on the table for the next 15 days which will lead us towards the end of the month. Any blocking and cold will just come too late(if it does transpire) so I hope it does not happen.Don't  want to end up getting a cold and wet Spring. Time to move on from this crap.

[gosaints]

The EPS and the GEFS are on completely different pages by day 9

[gosaints]

East coast gonna have a good run... 3 systems for them on the gfs

[gosaints]

Looks like the GEFS is back in line with the rest of the models in the extended.

[james1976]

Looks like the GEFS is back in line with the rest of the models in the extended.

Warm n dry?

[gosaints]

Warm n dry?

Not a torch in the long range but above average throughout. .5 qpf for you thru 384 hours. East coast raked.

[james1976]

Is it normal to have EC storm track with the midwest above normal?

Ridging in the central and trough out east?

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[gosaints]

Is it normal to have EC storm track with the midwest above normal?

Ridging in the central and trough out east?

Ragin PNA is the culprit for that.  

[Tom]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Blocking will hold, I'm expecting more volatility in the models as we are still in the midst of a SSW event which will wane by Friday.

 

EPO is also trending negative between the 18th-20th...

 

[gosaints]

Some sort of blocking is obviously inevitable but it locking in is not

[gosaints]

Blocking will hold, I'm expecting more volatility in the models as we are still in the midst of a SSW event which will wane by Friday.

 

EPO is also trending negative between the 18th-20th...

 

Do you think we go below normal for any extended period of time?

[james1976]

Friday thru next week im 10-20 above avg

[Snowshoe]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_62A8xKQAm0U/SnKNHjwk6NI/AAAAAAAAAaA/VpaFlv3CZCM/s320/homer_boring.gif

 

I see lots of cloudy 30ish degree days in my future.