2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Guest happ]

0.10 seems to be the norm but tomorrow's storm could be much wetter. Every time a ridge begins to build there is anxiety that the rain season is coming to an end. March can be a very rainy month.

 

0.10

month: 4.47

year [jul-jun]: 19.70

[Jesse]

Pathetic storm here with most areas less than 0.10". I did see a very dim rainbow this morning, but it probably would not even show up in a picture.

 

I really like how you always look for the positive in things!

[Guest happ]

Hope it verifies

[Dan the Weatherman]

There has been off and on mostly light rain today here in Orange until about 3-3:30 pm, which started very early this morning.

[Guest happ]

Yes, California's drought is all but over, and the dramatically revived Cachuma Lake proves it

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-cachuma-rain-20170225-story.html

[Anti Marine Layer]

San Diego is getting hit hard. This should get them past their annual average like the rest of Southern California.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Thread is dead. Rain was coming down pretty hard here in Irvine for a while, but looks like the heavy stuff is ditching northern Orange County and LA County.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The rain here in Orange was mostly light with some moderate rain mixed in. Once the main band sagged south this afternoon, it then stopped raining here. The brunt of the storm has been in San Diego County and the Tijuana area.

[Guest happ]

Some impressive rain totals in San Diego county [some over 2"] but nothing this far north but clouds; another very cool day 

 

59/ 49

[Bonk]

0.63" here in Modjeska.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2.40" for Lindbergh Field and over an inch for Palm Springs. In Lake Forest, it rained pretty heavily a few times throughout the evening, but none of that rain made it to Fullerton Airport or Northern Orange County.

[Guest happ]

I'm looking forward to the next NOAA drought monitor map for California, considering yesterday's heavy rainfall primarily in San Diego/ Riverside counties though Orange, Imperial and parts of San Bernardino counties also reported healthy rain totals.  Severe drought [D2] could be eliminated entirely except maybe isolated in parts of Ventura/ Santa Barbara.

 

Last March produced a fair amount of rain [2.04] despite drought and first March since 2012 to exceed 1.00. A review of data going back to 2000 produced some noteworthy March rain totals:

2000: 2.96

2003: 4.42

2005: 3.18

2006: 5.97

2011: 5.81

 

It would be great to replicate 2011 

[Guest happ]

February continued the winter trend of wetter than normal/ cooler than normal conditions

 

Feb 2017

 

AveMax: 66.4/ Norm: 69° 

AveMin: 52.2/ Norm: 51°

Mean: 59.3

 

MaxHi/Lo: 81/57

MinHi/Lo 60/ 43

 

Rain: 4.47

Year: [jul-jun]: 19.70

Days: 10

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nice day, but the warm weather will be over by Saturday.

 

And now, a la richard mann - cross reference: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/672-winter-picture-thread/page-4?do=findComment&comment=225864

[Guest happ]

Mostly light steady offshore winds kept the minimum above 50° after a week of 40's.

 

L: 55°

 

Wednesday: 75/ 49

[Guest happ]

Drought improvement in San Diego/ Riverside counties

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1525-late-winter-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=226141

[Guest happ]

Looking forward to the next storm Sunday though it appears that it will be a quick cold system w/o benefit from subtropical tap/moisture.

 

Thursday: 79/ 55

[Guest happ]

happ, on 02 Mar 2017 - 1:57 PM, said:

Drought improvement in San Diego/ Riverside counties

 

Here's what I don't understand. Less than 2 weeks ago, Santa Barbara was inundated yet they are still in Severe Drought

 

NWS_LA 2-18-17

"Overall, Santa Barbara rainfall totals so far have varied from 

  3.5" up to just under 9 inches in the Santa Ynez Mtn Range. 

  Ventura County received just over 8" in the mountains and coast 

  and valleys varied from 2.5 to 5 inches with Ojai receiving up to

  6.5". As for Los Angeles County. The rain did not pick up until 

  this afternoon, but it certainly left a mark. As of 7 pm...The LA 

  County Mtns have received over 5" while valleys were up to around 

  2.5 to 3". Coastal areas in LA county were around 1.5 to 2 inches 

  for the most part. So far Downtown Los Angeles have received less 

  than 2 inches, but it will continue to rain across LA County for 

  several more hours. The record for rain at Downtown Los Angeles 

  for today was 2.18" set in 1884. So a bit surprised based on rain 

  totals that Downtown LA will likely come up short of the record."

[Anti Marine Layer]

Warm day today, but unfortunately cool and cloudy by Sunday. Rain is welcome during the nights or during the workweek, but not on the weekend. To couch potatoes, which I am not, it does not make much of a difference if it rains workweek or weekend, because they never go outside anyway. These are probably the same people who hate Spring Forward.

Lots of great things about March:
1. Daylight Saving Time begins.
2. Start of spring
3. March Madness
4. Survivor begins
5. Dancing with the Stars begins
6. You can laugh at people who complain about Daylight Saving Time or incorrectly call it Daylight Savings Time.

[Guest happ]

More rain info for Santa Barbara:

 

Year [Oct-Sept]: 22.74   Normal: 13.13  

 

Where's the drought?  It is still there in reservoir deficits but huge jumps in capacity, nonetheless

 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

More rain info for Santa Barbara:

 

Year [Oct-Sept]: 22.74   Normal: 13.13  

 

Where's the drought?  It is still there in reservoir deficits but huge jumps in capacity, nonetheless

 

They must factor in how full the reservoirs are compared to average when figuring the drought status for the area. Lake Cachuma was extremely low going in to the season this year, and, while it has gained quite a bit of water, it is still only about half full. This area was one of the hardest hit by the current drought, so it will probably take somewhat longer to fully recover.

[Guest happ]

Dan the Weatherman, on 04 Mar 2017 - 11:13 AM, said:

They must factor in how full the reservoirs are compared to average when figuring the drought status for the area. Lake Cachuma was extremely low going in to the season this year, and, while it has gained quite a bit of water, it is still only about half full. This area was one of the hardest hit by the current drought, so it will probably take somewhat longer to fully recover.

 

Tomorrow's front looks anemic. It was in the 80's yesterday and may get just as warm next week. Not a favorable pattern 

[Bonk]

Where's the drought? 

 

 

This story, from The Mercury News, explains that Santa Barbara is still labeled in severe drought because their groundwater levels and reservoir have yet to recover.  

 

A U.S. Geological Survey well in the area that dropped 110 feet in the last decade only rose a foot last month.

[Guest happ]

Spectacular ‘Super Bloom’ Is Just Days Away In This California Desert: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/california-desert-wildflowers-bloom_us_58bb0fc6e4b0b9989417ffcb?r47pjlp4dzkja714i

[Guest happ]

Light rain is being reported as far south as Santa Barbara/ Bakersfield but amounts haven't been too impressive in NorCal; low snow levels. Could be a repeat next weekend if European model verifies:

 

"NWS_SF

The longer range models indicate that a cold upper trough off the
  coast of British Columbia will begin to sag south late in the 
  week and may then combine with a plume of moisture originating 
  from near Hawaii by next weekend. If this scenario unfolds as 
  depicted by the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS, there could be significant
  precipitation across at least portions of northern California 
  next weekend." 

 

Saturday: 70/ 52
 

[Guest happ]

Nice little spring showers today

 

0.11

 

55°

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nice little spring showers today

 

0.11

 

55°

Spring does not start until March 20.

 

It just started to rain here after some sunshine earlier this morning. Most of the day has been annoyingly breezy.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Some light rain fell here in Orange this afternoon, but this storm has been very weak down here compared to previous storms this season.

 

I am liking the looks of the longer range of possible storms coming into central and northern CA. Here is a quote from BA of Open Snow regarding the possible pattern change next weekend:

 

"Next weekend is when the trough may really start to dig down the West Coast opening the storm door.  The ridge looks to remain near the Aleutian islands and the jet stream may be pushed right into Central CA." 

 

If this verifies, Socal could very well get in on the action once again. Aleutian ridging is often favorable for a trough setting up off the coast and bringing rain to the area. I don't think our rainy season is over just yet!

[Guest happ]

Front has passed well to the ESE w/ cold air filling in; should be a chilly night. First rainfall of March; hope more to come next weekend.

 

60/52

 

0.13

 

Year: 19.83

[Anti Marine Layer]

Front has passed well to the ESE w/ cold air filling in; should be a chilly night. First rainfall of March; hope more to come next weekend.

 

60/52

 

0.13

 

Year: 19.83

 

Why not the Monday after next weekend, or Tuesday. Rain is good when you're stuck in the office all day. When I want to take my dog somewhere and enjoy the sunshine, it's not.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Why not the Monday after next weekend, or Tuesday. Rain is good when you're stuck in the office all day. When I want to take my dog somewhere and enjoy the sunshine, it's not.

 

I think it may arrive after next weekend. NWS San Diego hasn't mentioned anything about rain just yet, as they just referred to a trough approaching the Pacific NW helping to increase the onshore flow down here. It is too early to say for sure just yet, but the potential for rain cannot be ruled out, especially in light of what I quoted in my previous post above.

[Guest happ]

Mr Marine Layer, on 05 Mar 2017 - 5:36 PM, said:

Why not the Monday after next weekend, or Tuesday. Rain is good when you're stuck in the office all day. When I want to take my dog somewhere and enjoy the sunshine, it's not.

 

When it comes to rainfall no day is a bad day because how often does it rain each month?  The wet season will be over sooner than we may want.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I have been getting some mixed signals regarding the long range. NWS San Diego states the following in tonight's AFD:

 

Models show a subtropical ridge now in control of the weather over the far eastern North Pacific south of 40N. It
is likely this will keep the weather across the far SW part of the country dry through mid-month.

A bit farther to the north though, both of the latest GFS/ECMWF runs do show a gradual deepening of the NEastPac trough, with ridging holding near 180W. Flow around the trough over the NE Pacific keeps wet weather into far northern CA and the PacNW. Given this pattern over the central and eastern North Pacific, any weakening of the subtropical ridge could easily allow the storm track to shift south during the latter half of the month. Until then, count on dry weather and above average temps.

 

I am really hoping this dry forecast doesn't hold through mid month, because I am really getting tired of March being a dry month especially after enduring March, 2015 and the current drought. Last March was only wet during the first part of the month and then the rest of the season going into summer was bone-dry. I would like to see at least one more series of storms of moderate strength or greater before the rainy season ends. Rainy seasons that end in late February or early March often result in ridiculously hot spells of weather in Socal during April and May, a time of year that is usually pleasant and mild. Prime examples of this include, but are not limited to, 1997, 2004, and 2008, and very likely 2014.

[Guest happ]

Some quite interesting weather has been occurring in far northern California w/ very low snow levels. When SilverFallsAndrew reported accumulating snow at sea level in Brookings Oregon yesterday I reviewed nearby California coastal stations in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Frozen precipitation [mostly rain/snow mix] was observed at low as 60' elevation within a few miles of the ocean in Klamath [about 35 miles south of Brookings]. It was still snowing down to 400' earlier this morning.

 

That cold air mass even reached SoCal following the weak frontal passage/ light rain yesterday. Even with overnight wind the temperature dropped in the low 40's here; 30's were reported further inland.

 

MrMarineLayer notes that winter isn't over until the March 20 equinox. March can produce some cold temps. The 2006 monthly mean was: 55.6 [norm: 62.7] and produced 5.97" rainfall.

 

L: 43  

[Guest happ]

Dan the Weatherman, on 05 Mar 2017 - 10:50 PM, said:Dan the Weatherman, on 05 Mar 2017 - 10:50 PM, said:

I have been getting some mixed signals regarding the long range. NWS San Diego states the following in tonight's AFD:

 

Models show a subtropical ridge now in control of the weather over the far eastern North Pacific south of 40N. It

is likely this will keep the weather across the far SW part of the country dry through mid-month.

 

A bit farther to the north though, both of the latest GFS/ECMWF runs do show a gradual deepening of the NEastPac trough, with ridging holding near 180W. Flow around the trough over the NE Pacific keeps wet weather into far northern CA and the PacNW. Given this pattern over the central and eastern North Pacific, any weakening of the subtropical ridge could easily allow the storm track to shift south during the latter half of the month. Until then, count on dry weather and above average temps.

 

I am really hoping this dry forecast doesn't hold through mid month, because I am really getting tired of March being a dry month especially after enduring March, 2015 and the current drought. Last March was only wet during the first part of the month and then the rest of the season going into summer was bone-dry. I would like to see at least one more series of storms of moderate strength or greater before the rainy season ends. Rainy seasons that end in late February or early March often result in ridiculously hot spells of weather in Socal during April and May, a time of year that is usually pleasant and mild. Prime examples of this include, but are not limited to, 1997, 2004, and 2008, and very likely 2014.

 

I'm afraid the lush green hillsides will turn brown, as usual next month. Maybe ENSO unrealistic, but I like to compare this year to 2011 when heavy rainfall continued into March [5.81] and even tornadic activity into May.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqBzEPbbHVo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6OHG_4duHw

[Guest happ]

Dan the Weatherman, on 05 Mar 2017 - 10:50 PM, said:

 Rainy seasons that end in late February or early March often result in ridiculously hot spells of weather in Socal during April and May, a time of year that is usually pleasant and mild. Prime examples of this include, but are not limited to, 1997, 2004, and 2008, and very likely 2014.

 

Spring 1997 was particularly warm, excessively so in May [ave max: 85.1] 

Means

Mar: 67.8

Apr: 67.7

May 74.8 * record

 

1997 also very hot Aug/ Sept.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Considering how cold the air mass was with this last storm, I really don't think the rainy season is over yet. This simply may be our typical multi-week dry spell that often occurs during the winter, including wet winters, and that a wet pattern may emerge again later this month.

 

It got down to 38.8 here on the north side of my house this morning, which is the coldest temperature for this late in the season in quite a while, and may be the coldest this late since I have been keeping track of it.

[Guest happ]

Model guidance has backed off on significant rainfall pretty much anywhere in California this weekend/ early next week.  Weak troughs instead of and without AR-type flows.  In the meantime ridging and increasingly warmer temps.  It was cold again this morning but wind kicked in well before sunrise and raised temp.

 

L: 48

 

Monday: 65/43

[Guest happ]

...COASTAL DEL NORTE CA...
    Crescent City
    RAIN     RAIN     RAIN     MOCLDY   RAIN     RAIN     RAIN    
      /51    48/54    50/55    49/55    48/54    48/53    45/56   
       /100  100/80   100/90    80/30    20/50    70/50    30/70  

    Klamath
    RAIN     RAIN     RAIN     MOCLDY   RAIN     RAIN     RAIN    
      /50    47/55    49/56    49/56    47/55    48/54    45/55   
       /100  100/80    90/80    80/30    20/60    70/50    30/70