2017 California/Southwest Weather Thread

[Thunder98]

Here is my rainfall totals for every month starting September. Its amazing that every month has seen above average rainfall except for September. I'm already above my monthly average rainfall by 2 inches!

Actual | Avg | % of average

Sept: 0.00" | 0.16" | 0%
Oct: 1.39" | 0.58" | 240%
Nov: 1.40" | 1.36" | 103%
Dec: 2.84" | 2.15" | 132%
Jan: 7.00" | 2.64" | 265%
Feb (So far): 2.92" | 2.75" | 106%

[Guest happ]

February may end up w/ higher rainfall than Jan [8.67] 

 

NWS_LA

"Then a potentially dangerous change occurs. The upper low to the
  West of Eureka will set up a westerly then southwesterly flow
  pattern over the state. This flow pattern is forecast to entrain a
  large very moist plume of moisture. Right now both the EC and GFS
  forecast an 18 to 24 hour period of heavy rain for the entire 
  area from Friday morning to Saturday morning. The preliminary 
  rainfall forecast (which could easily change between now and
  Friday) calls for 2 to 6 inches of rain for the coastal slopes and
  1 to 3 inches across the coasts and vlys. This If this forecast
  comes try there will be quite a bit of flooding across the area. Snow
  levels will start out over 7000 feet but could fall to near 6000 
  feet by Saturday morning. Again the forecast could change between
  now and Friday but all Southern Californians need to monitor the
  weather this week".
 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Guest happ]

SilverFallsAndrew, on 13 Feb 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:SilverFallsAndrew, on 13 Feb 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:

 

And what kind of ENSO is this year?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

An what kind of ENSO is this year?

 

Some are saying weak Nina, I think it may have technically reached that criteria, but at this point it is a fairly neutral ENSO state. 

[TT-SEA]

An what kind of ENSO is this year?

 

Cool neutral.  

[Guest happ]

Who can argue over a wonderful gift after years of drought? The science seems to be that California is in the right place at the right time.

[Thunder98]

Very weak La Nina

[Jesse]

Cool neutral.

Alternative facts?

[TT-SEA]

Alternative facts?

 

No description then... just a graph.   

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[Guest happ]

Now we await another series of storms that could produce really heavy rainfall in SoCal especially in the area that needs it the most: Santa Barbara/ Ventura counties. It's great to feel excited by winter weather for a change. 

 

Monday: 78/ 58

[Bonk]

Now we await another series of storms that could produce really heavy rainfall in SoCal especially in the area that needs it the most: Santa Barbara/ Ventura counties. It's great to feel excited by winter weather for a change. 

 

 

Happ,

I'm in Modjeska Canyon and the person who relays emergency alerts (fire, rain/mudslides, etc) to area residents sent this out this morning:

 

We are expecting an extremely significant storm system this weekend. The National Weather Service is predicting rainfall totals equal to or greater than the rains we just had January 19th-23rd. They captured the top 50 precipitation locations, and we made the list:

 

#3  - Harding Canyon (in Modjeska Canyon)  @11.18” of rain

#6 -  Silverado Canyon @ 10.08” of rain

#22 -  Modjeska Canyon @ 5.91” of rain

 

 

Holy Smokes!  Those numbers are double what we received during the 'atmospheric river' event we had the third week in Jan.

 

Does this jibe what you're seeing on the forecasts you follow?

 

Weather Underground is forecasting 3.5" for Modjeska this weekend.

[Guest happ]

Bonk, on 14 Feb 2017 - 5:48 PM, said:

 

Happ,

I'm in Modjeska Canyon and the person who relays emergency alerts (fire, rain/mudslides, etc) to area residents sent this out this morning:

 

We are expecting an extremely significant storm system this weekend. The National Weather Service is predicting rainfall totals equal to or greater than the rains we just had January 19th-23rd. They captured the top 50 precipitation locations, and we made the list:

 

#3  - Harding Canyon (in Modjeska Canyon)  @11.18” of rain

#6 -  Silverado Canyon @ 10.08” of rain

#22 -  Modjeska Canyon @ 5.91” of rain

 

 

Holy Smokes!  Those numbers are double what we received during the 'atmospheric river' event we had the third week in Jan.

 

Does this jibe what you're seeing on the forecasts you follow?

 

Weather Underground is forecasting 3.5" for Modjeska this weekend.

 

 

Bonk, those are scary predictions. Are you considering sand bags? I never thought I'd need flood insurance but the road can't handle extremely heavy showers.  So far no erosion here but several years ago my neighbors nearly lost their deck.

 

What's your rain total?

[Bonk]

Bonk, those are scary predictions. Are you considering sand bags? I never thought I'd need flood insurance but the road can't handle extremely heavy showers.  So far no erosion here but several years ago my neighbors nearly lost their deck.

 

We use rice bales here.  The County has a barn sized pile at the foot of the canyon for resident's use.

 

Santiago Creek is 75' from my back door.  It got pretty high last month when we had 3.5" here and 5 - 7" on Santiago and Modjeska Peak above us.

 

Luckily, we've got a 6' berm on our side of the creek which affords us pretty good protection.  There are other areas where the water will crest way before it affects our property.

 

But if we get twice as much rain this weekend than the last large storm, it's going to get interesting.

 

 

What's your rain total?

 

18.56" for the last 4 months: October 15 - February 14

[Guest happ]

Doesn't Modjeska canyon road get washed out in very heavy showers? Seems like that occurred a few years ago during summer monsoon. 

 

I hope the upcoming rainfall is cold enough for lots of snow in San Bernardino mts.

 

75/ 55

[Guest happ]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
143 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Heavy rain expected across much of southwest California Friday
through early Saturday...

.A strong storm system tapping into deep subtropical moisture will
generate periods of moderate to heavy rain late this week into the
weekend. The first wave of rain will begin along the Central
Coast Thursday, then move south into Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties Thursday night. The second wave arriving Friday morning
will focus it`s energy on the south facing slopes from southern
Santa Barbara County east through Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties. Strong southerly winds combined with ample moisture will
lead to periods of very heavy rain with rain rates at times around
1 inch per hour. Rainfall will begin to taper off Saturday morning
with the flash flood threat ending around noon, though scattered
showers are possible through the evening.

CAZ039>041-044>046-052>054-059-087-088-547>550-161000-
/O.NEW.KLOX.FF.A.0007.170217T1500Z-170218T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Barbara County South Coast-Ventura County Coast-
Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los Angeles-
Ventura County Interior Valleys-Ventura County Coastal Valleys-
Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area-
Santa Barbara County Mountains-Ventura County Mountains-
Los Angeles County Mountains excluding the Santa Monica Range-
Antelope Valley-Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands-
Santa Clarita Valley-Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley-
San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands-Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands-
Including the cities of Santa Barbara, Montecito, Carpinteria,
Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Malibu, Santa Monica, Beverly Hills,
Hollywood, Long Beach, Santa Paula, Fillmore, Ojai, Piru,
Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Newbury Park,
San Marcos Pass, San Rafael Wilderness Area,
**** Smith Wilderness Area, Lockwood Valley, Mount Pinos, Acton,
Mount Wilson, Sandberg, Lancaster, Palmdale, Avalon,
Santa Clarita, Newhall, Valencia, Woodland Hills, Northridge,
Burbank, Universal City, Pasadena, San Gabriel, and Pomona
143 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa
  Barbara Counties

* From Friday morning through Saturday morning

* Periods of moderate to heavy rain with rainfall rates at times
  around 1 inch per hour. Overall 2 to 4 inches of rain are
  expected across the coast and valleys while 4 to 8 inches are
  expected in the foothills and mountains. Heaviest along the
  south facing slopes from the Santa Ynez Range east through the
  San Gabriels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Flash flooding and debris flows will be a particular threat in
and below the recently burned areas.

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

Southern California residents, in or below the recently burned
areas are urged to take the steps necessary to protect their
property. Persons in the watch area should remain alert and
follow directions of emergency preparedness officials.

 

[bainbridgekid]

I don't think I've ever seen this much rain modeled for LA. 

 

The 18z GFS output literally gives LAX over 5" of rain between 10 AM to 10 PM Friday.

 

 

Hard to imagine there not being some pretty major flash flooding with this.

[Guest happ]

bainbridgekid, on 15 Feb 2017 - 7:15 PM, said:

I don't think I've ever seen this much rain modeled for LA. 

 

The 18z GFS output literally gives LAX over 5" of rain between 10 AM to 10 PM Friday.

 

LA rainstorm.png

 

Hard to imagine there not being some pretty major flash flooding with this.

 

Bulls eye is Los Angeles. I did record a few days with 5" totals in 2005.

[ShawniganLake]

Alternative facts?

NOAA says weak Nina, so I'll go with that. 5 consecutive trimonthlies below -0.5C.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[Guest happ]

A flash flood watch extends from the Sierra starting at Yosemite out to Las Vegas and into Baja California.

 

81/ 53

[bainbridgekid]

Bulls eye is Los Angeles. I did record a few days with 5" totals in 2005.

I was in Hermosa Beach for that.

 

I've experienced many thunderstorms in the Midwest, but the rain there on 12/28/04 is still the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life. The rain drops were practically ping pong ball sized and it turned the hill at my sister's house into a raging river.

 

LAX recorded 3.85" that day.

[Guest happ]

bainbridgekid, on 15 Feb 2017 - 11:02 PM, said:

I was in Hermosa Beach for that.

 

I've experienced many thunderstorms in the Midwest, but the rain there on 12/28/04 is still the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life. The rain drops were practically ping pong ball sized and it turned the hill at my sister's house into a raging river.

 

LAX recorded 3.85" that day.

 

I recorded over 50"; nothing has ever come close since that rainyear [2004/05]

[Dan the Weatherman]

I believe 2004-05 is downtown Los Angeles' second wettest season on record with around 36" since records began back in 1877.

[Dan the Weatherman]

My season rainfall total here in Orange so far beginning July 1 is 17.56".

 

Downtown Los Angeles has received 16.25" from July 1 to the present, which is above the seasonal average. I don't use the new October 1 to September 30 water year, but this year L.A. only recorded a trace from July to September, so both figures are the same. Last year, of course, was a different story with all the summer rainfall we had.

[Guest happ]

The outflow from the Sacramento river can be seen as brown water passing under the Golden Gate out into the Pacific. Oroville dam will be hit by massive rainfall again early next week; hope it holds up ok.  

[Guest happ]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Diego CA
903 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017

...A WIND STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY...

.A strong storm will approach the area from the Pacific on Friday,
then move across Southern California Friday evening through Saturday.
Winds will increase and become unusually strong out ahead of this
storm. This will bring a period of damaging winds to the area,
with the highest impact time being from 2 PM to Midnight on Friday.

CAZ043-048-050-057-058-060>062-065-552-554-170600-
/O.UPG.KSGX.HW.A.0003.170217T1500Z-170218T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KSGX.HW.W.0004.170217T1500Z-170218T1000Z/
San Diego County Coastal Areas-
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills-
San Diego County Mountains-Apple and Lucerne Valleys-
Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-
San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Orange County Coastal Areas-
Orange County Inland Areas-
Including the cities of...Vista...Carlsbad...Encinitas...
Chula Vista...National City...San Diego...Riverside...
San Bernardino...Ontario...Moreno Valley...Fontana...
Rancho Cucamonga...Corona...Escondido...El Cajon...San Marcos...
La Mesa...Santee...Poway...Julian...Pine Valley...Victorville...
Hesperia...Apple Valley...Indio...Palm Springs...Cathedral City...
Palm Desert...Palm Desert Country...La Quinta...Coachella...
Borrego Springs...Banning...Desert Hot Springs...
Huntington Beach...Costa Mesa...Santa Ana...Anaheim...
Garden Grove...Irvine...Orange...Fullerton...Mission Viejo
903 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM PST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a High Wind
Warning...which is in effect from 7 AM Friday to 2 AM PST
Saturday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Damaging southerly winds are expected Friday through
  Friday night. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph is expected from the
  coast to the valleys and across portions of the lower deserts.
  Wind gusts in the mountains and portions of the high deserts
  will exceed 70 mph. Even a period of high sustained winds of 30
  to 40 mph is expected along the coast Friday afternoon into the
  evening. This will be a high impact wind event.

* TIMING...The strongest winds will occur between 2 PM and
  midnight on Friday.

* Impacts...Winds of this magnitude will produce significant
  impacts. Numerous trees will fall posing a life and property
  risk. Downed powerlines, power outages, and some structural
  damage is also expected. Driving will be hazardous due to
  debris, including downed trees on roadways. High-profile
  vehicles, such as semi trucks, will be prone to blow over due to
  strong cross-winds, especially on east-west oriented freeways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring.  Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$
GREGORIA

[Guest Sounder]

The outflow from the Sacramento river can be seen as brown water passing under the Golden Gate out into the Pacific. Oroville dam will be hit by massive rainfall again early next week; hope it holds up ok.  

12z GFS has 7" of rain over Oroville the next week. Could get ugly.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like an interesting storm coming up. Hopefully the atmospheric river will not miss San Diego again. Also, very high winds could actually reduce rainfall totals,

[Guest happ]

There is model variability but even if rainfall amounts are not as high as originally predicted it is great, once again, to get winter storms one after another. The pattern looks to remain well into next week and perhaps beyond February.

 

72/ 55

[Guest happ]

BIG BEAR AIRP LGT SNOW  34  30  86 SW6G28    29.79F WCI  29         
 

[Guest happ]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service OXNARD CA
747 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2017

CAC079-171845-
/O.NEW.KLOX.FA.Y.0054.170217T1547Z-170217T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Luis Obispo CA-
747 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2017

The National Weather Service in OXNARD has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
  San Luis Obispo County in southwestern California...

* Until 1045 AM PST

* At 740 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to locally heavy
  rain developing across much of San Luis Obispo county. Hourly
  rainfall rates were around one quarter inch. The rainfall is
  expected to intensify this morning with hourly rainfall rates
  possibly exceeding one half inch. Rainfall rates this high will
  cause urban and small stream flooding in the advisory area. Rivers
  and streams are expected to rise quickly this morning. Stay away
  from washes, streams, culverts and rivers. Avoid driving through
  canyons as rocks and debris flows are a good possibility.

  Minor mud and debris flows are possible in and around the
  Chimney burn area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  San Luis Obispo...Paso Robles...Morro Bay...Pismo Beach...
  Atascadero...Arroyo Grande...Nipomo...Cambria...Cuyama...
  Grover Beach...Guadalupe...Santa Margarita...Shandon...
  Diablo Canyon...Cayucos...Baywood-Los Osos...San Miguel...
  Hearst Castle...and Templeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&
 

[Guest happ]

A wind gust of 71 MPH was observed at the
  Salinas Airport earlier this morning, with numerous gusts in the
  45-55 mph range at other observing sites. Numerous reports of
  downed trees and power poles across areas in Monterey and San
  Benito counties, with many people experiencing power outages in
  Monterey County.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=lox&afos=AFDMTR

[Anti Marine Layer]

Storm has been greatly underperforming so far, but still hoping the best is yet to come.

[Thunder98]

2.11" since 8pm last night

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's been raining heavily for a few hours now, but I have seen much stronger winds than this before.

[Thunder98]

I had wind gust up to 56 MPH earlier today.

[Thunder98]

 

Here is my rainfall totals for every month starting September. Its amazing that every month has seen above average rainfall except for September. I'm already above my monthly average rainfall by 2 inches!

Actual | Avg | % of average

Sept: 0.00" | 0.16" | 0%

Oct: 1.39" | 0.58" | 240%

Nov: 1.40" | 1.36" | 103%

Dec: 2.84" | 2.15" | 132%

Jan: 7.00" | 2.64" | 265%

Feb (So far): 2.92" | 2.75" | 106%

 

 

 Update: 

 

Actual | Avg | % of average

Sept: 0.00" | 0.16" | 0%

Oct: 1.39" | 0.58" | 240%

Nov: 1.40" | 1.36" | 103%

Dec: 2.84" | 2.15" | 132%

Jan: 7.00" | 2.64" | 265%

Feb (So far): 5.61" | 2.75" | 204%

Season to date: 18.24"

[Dylan]

5+ inches and still raining.  I had to empty the rain gauge mid day so that it would not fill up.

[Guest happ]

Very windy this afternoon [local gusts: 48mph] and rain, heavy at times and still raining. 

 

59/ 53

Rain: 2.27

[Anti Marine Layer]

So far, the January 22 storm had much higher rainfall totals for Orange County.