January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017010912/gem_asnow_nwus_8.png

 

I'll take that!

[Kayla]

12z GEM looks nice.

 

Yeah, shows widespread 5-8". Models are really starting to converge this morning, great to see.

[Perturbed Member]

Just an FYI, seems that GEM map includes some snow that it thinks will fall this morning.

[Goducks09]

Pretty excited for a couple clear, cold days to follow the snow too!  A decent non-transition event! 

[Perturbed Member]

Looks pretty similar to GFS.  All systems go?

As long as the 12z euro is on board. Still don't like seeing the NAM consistently giving us the finger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It should snow a bit after 12z Wednesday at least south of PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tonight and tomorrow morning look like a go for sw wa too

[Kayla]

Just an FYI, seems that GEM map includes some snow that it thinks will fall this morning.

 

Yeah the 5-8" I mentioned is just for the Tuesday night - Wednesday period. 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah the 5-8" I mentioned is just for the Tuesday night - Wednesday period. 

Yeah a widespread 3-5 inches looks pretty doable with this system, I'm assuming the GEM is a bit too generous on the precip amounts as it often tends to be. 5-8 would be fantastic though.

[Blizzard777]

Good morning all

Federal way 35.7 and still green with a chance of green later today

[BLI snowman]

Even the NAM has been trending north the last few runs, and as always it seems to be overdoing the cold air suppressing the storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even the NAM has been trending north the last few runs, and as always it seems to be overdoing the cold air suppressing the storm.

I would expect to see winter storm watches Salem north with the afternoon package, maybe south valley too as at least Albany probably gets hit.

[Goducks09]

I would expect to see winter storm watches Salem north with the afternoon package, maybe south valley too as at least Albany probably gets hit.

 

 

I'm thinking Salem outperforms Portland with this...again.

[Deweydog]

Andy Carson says a little snow for the higher elevations Tuesday night. Good sign.

[Goducks09]

Andy Carson says a little snow for the higher elevations Tuesday night. Good sign.

 

 

I saw that this morning too...a bit perplexing.  They might be saving the "Winter Storm" announcement/coverage for Mark and the prime-time crew tonight.  No point in having the morning folks take the glory.

[BLI snowman]

I would expect to see winter storm watches Salem north with the afternoon package, maybe south valley too as at least Albany probably gets hit.

 

Hoping they hold off until 6pm on Tuesday.

[stuffradio]

The Northern Hemisphere temps have tanked.

 

[BLI snowman]

Andy Carson says a little snow for the higher elevations Tuesday night. Good sign.

 

Will be tough to get much below 1500', maybe a mix at best. 

[Perturbed Member]

Hoping they hold off until 6pm on Tuesday.

 

Agree, this is crucial. If the WSWs go up this afternoon, the entire 00z suite tonight will send the low to Eureka, CA.

[Deweydog]

Will be tough to get much below 1500', maybe a mix at best.

The Clark County snowhole shrunk 15 square miles with his words. He's a powerful man, mainly due to his soul patch.

[Goducks09]

Hoping they hold off until 6pm on Tuesday.

 

 

I'm hoping they hold off indefinitely...

[Heavy Snow]

12z UKMET onboard. Excellent track with the low and lots of moisture behind it.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Perturbed Member]

Some fairly organized precip coming onshore to the SW. Should add some decent snow for some.  I'm too warm near HIO, 36F with some SW winds. The east winds finally gave in this morning over here. Don't think there is enough cold air advection going on to cause anything more than snow in the air here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z UKMET onboard. Excellent track with the low and lots of moisture behind it.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

Looks pretty similar to the Canadian. That lows going to come in anywhere from North Bend to Newport...I'm gonna split the difference and say Florence/Waldport.

[BLI snowman]

The Clark County snowhole shrunk 15 square miles with his words. He's a powerful man, mainly due to his soul patch.

 

Mark has been ripping off his info from Andy for years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF says 2-4" Eugene to south Metro... About 1" at PDX. 

[Goducks09]

WRF says 2-4" Eugene to south Metro... About 1" at PDX. 

 

 

Yikes!  Don't like that.

[MossMan]

How does Olympia do tomorrow? 1-2"?

[Deweydog]

WRF says 2-4" Eugene to south Metro... About 1" at PDX.

It's been recklessly under-estimating PDX's snow amounts all winter, judging by the 15" they've picked up so far.

[Kayla]

Yeah a widespread 3-5 inches looks pretty doable with this system, I'm assuming the GEM is a bit too generous on the precip amounts as it often tends to be. 5-8 would be fantastic though.

 

Yeah if I had to make a forecast right now I'd go with 2-5" but we'll see where we stand after the 00z runs tonight.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah if I had to make a forecast right now I'd go with 2-5" but we'll see where we stand after the 00z runs tonight.

 

Yeah I still just have a bad feeling that SLE - EUG will again win and PDX gets screwed since it seems to be the theme of the winter. Liking most of the models so far though. 

[Deweydog]

Pretty crazy pattern in the long range on the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

How does Olympia do tomorrow? 1-2"?

 

1-3" for the Olympia to Seattle corridor looks like a decent call. Seattle looks to be on the very northern edge of it.

[Guest happ]

What a wonderful winter; hope it last for at least 3 more months!

[Kayla]

I saw that this morning too...a bit perplexing.  They might be saving the "Winter Storm" announcement/coverage for Mark and the prime-time crew tonight.  No point in having the morning folks take the glory.

 

No mets on the morning show so you'll usually just see the evening show forecast regurgitated.

[luvssnow_spokane]

1-3" for the Olympia to Seattle corridor looks like a decent call. Seattle looks to be on the very northern edge of it.

I think that is about right... Most of the news up here is limiting accumulation due to warmish temps. They are stating for a high close to 40 the greater puget sound the next few days.   ... I expect a max of two inches but more likely an inch at my place. If I get two I will be surprised and thrilled. Looks to have some pretty heavy day time melting but it will be pretty for a bit. 

[Tyler Mode]

The snow from this morning...all 1/4" by the time it was done...

 

Some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen though.  You can clearly see where they landed in the photos.

 

Temp dropped to 33 during the shower, now 37.  Typical  cold onshore flow stuff, something we haven't seen the last two winters.

 

Heavier snow and more accumulation than at any time on Saturday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I still just have a bad feeling that SLE - EUG will again win and PDX gets screwed since it seems to be the theme of the winter. Liking most of the models so far though. 

 

I am pretty confident in 2-4" with local lower or higher amounts from about Albany to the south metro area. I think Eugene and PDX/Vancouver are looking at needing a slight shift either way to score. PDX needs a track in about Newport or so, EUG North Bend. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Did Heavy Snow/Acrtic Blast join Jim in the forum boycott? Or is he out making ice angels?

The very sad thing is, it will be very unlikely for Jim to see much snow, if any over the this weeks event. Heck, I am even on the edge. I feel bad for him!!      I don't blame him for being a little down. I do not expect him back for awhile, maybe for a pattern reset (if it even happens as this could be it)... Fingers crossed!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty crazy pattern in the long range on the GFS.

 

About time we saw a suppressed jet...