2017 ENSO Discussion

[Niko]

Perhaps, but not overwhelmingly so.

 

Key takeaways:

 

 

Sounding more La Nida-ish every update!  Perfect if you ask me. Split the uprights ftw!! 

 

-QBO with "La Nida" ENSO:

 

20170928 Pioneer model winter 2m temp anom.jpg

Yup..I have no problem with either one of them., as long as we get a decent Winter. Ofc, I am still waiting to see a "Michigan Blizzard".

[jaster220]

Yup..I have no problem with either one of them., as long as we get a decent Winter. Ofc, I am still waiting to see a "Michigan Blizzard".

 

With the exception of 2007-08, I don't remember many Mod to Strong Nina's treating SMI very well at all. So, I'd have to lean neutral as mentioned in this post I made in their winter thd today:

 

 

Reading your response, one could get the idea, that we have a say in where it ends up, lol. But, as long as we're just talking scenarios here, I'm right with you on that. As noted by Stebo, the list of Nina analogs that produced the higher precip anom's across SMI weren't as good of snow seasons as those maps would lead one to think. Hmm. All of SMI (and especially SEMI) does best in the snow dept when cold dominates. For SEMI, the colder the better as we've recently witnessed four yrs ago. Cold first, then add moisture, then add track, then add dominant pattern = kismet

 

So, with ENSO neutral being our best scenario historically and the best shot at a snowy winter, it gets my vote over a Nina. Yeah, those full-on Nina precip maps look really great but can mean rainers and mixers just as easily, as the records seem to indicate. I think that in most winters, we see plenty of moisture around SMI, the question is always how much of it comes in the form of dendrites? I'm that kid from the 70's show, and I like to have my storms and snow cover too.

 

As posted, while the sub-surface waters are looking like an impending full-on Nina is in the cards, it's not a done deal, with the model avg pointing more weak Nina. I would love to score the Nina moisture anom's without the constant melt-offs of '07-08, so a "pump-fake" into Nina territory but overall Nada could work wonders for me. 

Last winter didn't act anything like what the ENSO state would have dictated, so ultimately, regardless of the official values, I know the results I'm hoping for in mby. It may come via other player's contributions like the -QBO for one. As said originally, and I'll add that I don't need full-on winter in Nov, but I highly doubt we repeat last Nov's crazy torch-fest conditions. To wit, certain peeps "lol'd" me.

[Niko]

With the exception of 2007-08, I don't remember many Mod to Strong Nina's treating SMI very well at all. So, I'd have to lean neutral as mentioned in this post I made in their winter thd today:

Well, that does not mean good news for SMI then. Hopefully, La Nina is not in the works this upcoming Winter.

[jaster220]

Well, that does not mean good news for SMI then. Hopefully, La Nina is not in the works this upcoming Winter.

Nina warm bias could be overcome via the stout -QBO though, which is where my hopes are pinned if indeed we see a Nina. I don't consider a Nina an automatic winter fail. It will be interesting to watch this play out tbh.

[Niko]

@ Jaster,

 

Do you think you will reach average, above or much above snowfall this season and why?! Ofc, my area as well.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster,

 

Do you think you will reach average, above or much above snowfall this season and why?! Ofc, my area as well.

Leaning towards MAN. 07-08 was the warmer Nina scenario and I still got 172% of normal. With a colder outcome, this could be higher like we saw in 13-14. The moisture is forecast to be plentiful, and all signs are indicating that the cold will be as well.

 

That guy I quoted who reads nature signs mentioned possibly worse than 2013-14. What would we need to make that happen? These come to mind:

 

- An earlier start, and later end. (Before Dec 15, and after March 8)

- More large storms (was really only 1 in that winter)

- More intense storms (i.e. winds, drifts, WC's values all make for harsher winters)

 

1917-18 featured a lot of this. 100 yrs ago!

[Niko]

Leaning towards MAN. 07-08 was the warmer Nina scenario and I still got 172% of normal. With a colder outcome, this could be higher like we saw in 13-14. The moisture is forecast to be plentiful, and all signs are indicating that the cold will be as well.

 

That guy I quoted who reads nature signs mentioned possibly worse than 2013-14. What would we need to make that happen? These come to mind:

 

- An earlier start, and later end. (Before Dec 15, and after March 8)

- More large storms (was really only 1 in that winter)

- More intense storms (i.e. winds, drifts, WC's values all make for harsher winters)

 

1917-18 featured a lot of this. 100 yrs ago!

Man, I cant imagine anything more harsher than 13-14!

[Tom]

Leaning towards MAN. 07-08 was the warmer Nina scenario and I still got 172% of normal. With a colder outcome, this could be higher like we saw in 13-14. The moisture is forecast to be plentiful, and all signs are indicating that the cold will be as well.

 

That guy I quoted who reads nature signs mentioned possibly worse than 2013-14. What would we need to make that happen? These come to mind:

 

- An earlier start, and later end. (Before Dec 15, and after March 8)

- More large storms (was really only 1 in that winter)

- More intense storms (i.e. winds, drifts, WC's values all make for harsher winters)

 

1917-18 featured a lot of this. 100 yrs ago!

Let's go for a 100 year anniversary...who's in? ORD had 64.1" for the entire season and ranked 12th coldest. I'd take that. How did MI do back then? I bet the snow belt regions did quite well.

[jaster220]

Man, I cant imagine anything more harsher than 13-14!

 

Let's go for a 100 year anniversary...who's in? ORD had 64.1" for the entire season and ranked 12th coldest. I'd take that. How did MI do back then? I bet the snow belt regions did quite well.

 

Jackson MI, 25 mi east of Marshall:

 

  

 

News story here:  http://www.mlive.com/news/jackson/index.ssf/2015/01/peek_through_time_fury_of_wind.html

 

 

Caledonia MI, a bit SE of Grand Rapids

 

 

[Tom]

Jackson MI, 25 mi east of Marshall:

 

Jan 1918 Bliz - Jackson MI trains.jpg Jan 1918 Bliz - Jackson MI train tracks.JPG

 

News story here: http://www.mlive.com/news/jackson/index.ssf/2015/01/peek_through_time_fury_of_wind.html

 

 

Caledonia MI, a bit SE of Grand Rapids

 

Caledonia MI mainstreet winter 1918.jpg

Goood Lordy! That's what I'm talking about! Ha! With the Grand Solar minimum approaching, hopefully there will be a trend towards colder winters as such. Those pictures are beautiful to look at but I'm sure it had to have been harsh living in them. Oooo, wee....I could smell the coal burning in the air.

[Niko]

Goood Lordy! That's what I'm talking about! Ha! With the Grand Solar minimum approaching, hopefully there will be a trend towards colder winters as such. Those pictures are beautiful to look at but I'm sure it had to have been harsh living in them. Oooo, wee....I could smell the coal burning in the air.

Holy crap! That is what I would really like to experience here in SEMI this upcoming Winter season.

Let's go for a 100 year anniversary...who's in? ORD had 64.1" for the entire season and ranked 12th coldest. I'd take that. How did MI do back then? I bet the snow belt regions did quite well.

I am all for it.

[Niko]

Jackson MI, 25 mi east of Marshall:

 

Jan 1918 Bliz - Jackson MI trains.jpg  Jan 1918 Bliz - Jackson MI train tracks.JPG

 

News story here:  http://www.mlive.com/news/jackson/index.ssf/2015/01/peek_through_time_fury_of_wind.html

 

 

Caledonia MI, a bit SE of Grand Rapids

 

Caledonia MI mainstreet winter 1918.jpg

I wonder how your place (SWMI) looked at that point of time. Prolly inundated as well with feet of snow.

[Niko]

FWIW:

 

Accu-Weather has a cold look to November with snow chances and a very snowy outcome to my December forecast in the extended. Ofc, I never did pay attention to them until last year when they were starting to get a lot better in their forecasting, so I am starting to trust them more now.

[jaster220]

Holy crap! That is what I would really like to experience here in SEMI this upcoming Winter season.

 

I am all for it.

Count me in! The Jan bliz that stopped trains was a surprise GOMEX Low that tracked to Lk Huron while bombing to 28.6" of Hg. Much like the '78 Superbomb it was forecast to go well east as a moderate storm, until it phased big time. Had the bitter zero degree air like '78 as well.

If you think your forecast is unreliable now? Back then looking out your window was all you could do, lol

[jaster220]

Goood Lordy! That's what I'm talking about! Ha! With the Grand Solar minimum approaching, hopefully there will be a trend towards colder winters as such. Those pictures are beautiful to look at but I'm sure it had to have been harsh living in them. Oooo, wee....I could smell the coal burning in the air.

Oh, and neither of those cities are in the LES belt, that's what makes that truly epic imho. Those aren't Keewenaw county villages, though they look like it!

 

You nailed it. Harsh isn't the word. When's the last time this happened??

 

"The others were James C. Culkins of Albion and Fred Goodwin of Napoleon who died from exposure as they walked to work."

[Niko]

Count me in! The Jan bliz that stopped trains was a surprise GOMEX Low that tracked to Lk Huron while bombing to 28.6" of Hg. Much like the '78 Superbomb it was forecast to go well east as a moderate storm, until it phased big time. Had the bitter zero degree air like '78 as well.

If you think your forecast is unreliable now? Back then looking out your window was all you could do, lol

That's what I like when a storm phases at the last second and everyone is caught by surprise towards a monster bliz.

[OKwx2k4]

I'd do a 100 year repeat. 60 days of snowcover and depths over 3ft at times would be pandemonium here in modern times. Lol

 

Incredibly similar climate period now also but nowadays people don't use data that old or trust it. I do and know it can happen again and likely will in my lifetime.

[jaster220]

I'd do a 100 year repeat. 60 days of snowcover and depths over 3ft at times would be pandemonium here in modern times. Lol

Incredibly similar climate period now also but nowadays people don't use data that old or trust it. I do and know it can happen again and likely will in my lifetime.

Yep, it's a joke that analogs have to be limited to post-1950, as if that short of a data set covers all potential outcomes in the planet's history! No offense to individual scientists doing their helpful work, but that community at large is full of themselves and their learned endeavors.

[westMJim]

Jackson MI, 25 mi east of Marshall:

 

Jan 1918 Bliz - Jackson MI trains.jpg  Jan 1918 Bliz - Jackson MI train tracks.JPG

 

News story here:  http://www.mlive.com/news/jackson/index.ssf/2015/01/peek_through_time_fury_of_wind.html

 

 

Caledonia MI, a bit SE of Grand Rapids

 

Caledonia MI mainstreet winter 1918.jpg

I did a little research on January 1917.  First off 1917 was much colder that average and the year is the coldest mean for the whole year at GRR with a mean of 44.6°  Now for January 1918 I do not know how much snow Marshall or Jackson received but according to the official records at Grand Rapids and other locations  the snows in early mid-January 1918 came is two storms one on January 6^th and 7^th and then the one on January 11^th and 12^th Here are some totals from the two storms Grand Rapids Jan 6^th 11” Jan 7^th 2” Jan 12^th 10” Jan 13^th 2” total on the ground 22” Lansing Jan 6^th 5” Jan 7^th 1.5” Jan 11^th 2” Jan 12^th 4.8” total on the ground 15” Detroit Jan 6^th 2” Jan 11^th 1.3” Jan 12^th 3.7” no report of total on the ground. Saginaw Jan 6^th 5.8” Jan 11^th 6.8” Jan 12 1.2” total on the ground 16” All Michigan locations reported lows on the 12^th of -14° or -15° Fort Wane Jan 1^st (yes the 1^st) 5.7” Jan 7^th 4.0” Jan 11^th 4.2” total on the ground 19” coldest low on the 12^th -24° Chicago Jan 6^th 14.4” Jan 7^th 0.5” Jan 11^th 5.9” Jan 12^th 4.0” total on the ground 25” coldest low -14° January 1918 was a cold and snowy month in the great lakes area. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 18.4° (-11.9°) and 45” of snow was reported. I hope this gives you a good idea as to how the winter of 1917/18 turned out but as I said the summer fall leading into it were much different than this year. 

[Niko]

I did a little research on January 1917.  First off 1917 was much colder that average and the year is the coldest mean for the whole year at GRR with a mean of 44.6°  Now for January 1918 I do not know how much snow Marshall or Jackson received but according to the official records at Grand Rapids and other locations  the snows in early mid-January 1918 came is two storms one on January 6^th and 7^th and then the one on January 11^th and 12^th Here are some totals from the two storms Grand Rapids Jan 6^th 11” Jan 7^th 2” Jan 12^th 10” Jan 13^th 2” total on the ground 22” Lansing Jan 6^th 5” Jan 7^th 1.5” Jan 11^th 2” Jan 12^th 4.8” total on the ground 15” Detroit Jan 6^th 2” Jan 11^th 1.3” Jan 12^th 3.7” no report of total on the ground. Saginaw Jan 6^th 5.8” Jan 11^th 6.8” Jan 12 1.2” total on the ground 16” All Michigan locations reported lows on the 12^th of -14° or -15° Fort Wane Jan 1^st (yes the 1^st) 5.7” Jan 7^th 4.0” Jan 11^th 4.2” total on the ground 19” coldest low on the 12^th -24° Chicago Jan 6^th 14.4” Jan 7^th 0.5” Jan 11^th 5.9” Jan 12^th 4.0” total on the ground 25” coldest low -14° January 1918 was a cold and snowy month in the great lakes area. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 18.4° (-11.9°) and 45” of snow was reported. I hope this gives you a good idea as to how the winter of 1917/18 turned out but as I said the summer fall leading into it were much different than this year. 

In what ways?!

[westMJim]

In what ways?!

The summer and fall of 1917/18 were cold, in fact the whole year of 1917 was cold that year had the coldest mean temperature in Grand Rapids

[Niko]

The summer and fall of 1917/18 were cold, in fact the whole year of 1917 was cold that year had the coldest mean temperature in Grand Rapids

Wow....So, I would imagine no Summer at all was experienced that year.

 

Do you have info on how that Winter turned out?

[OKwx2k4]

Of note, when discussing 1917-18, much of the cooler summer was explained by volcanism if I'm not mistaken.

 

@Niko, the winter of 1917-18 bore a large resemblance to 2000 or 2013 in my opinion. One of the reasons that 1917-18 gets my attention is reading the descriptions of SST and weather patterns over the Bering Sea during that era.

 

For reference Google "The 'Old-fashioned' Winter of 1917-18". Also of note, I believe the fact that they called it old-fashioned (in its own era) also leads to believe that there was an oddly long era of warm winters with maybe 3-4 brutally cold ones interspersed over a near 30 year period there. Largely different from what folks would really believe based on today's data.

[westMJim]

Wow....So, I would imagine no Summer at all was experienced that year.

 

Do you have info on how that Winter turned out?

This is the original post I made on the winter of 1917/17

I did a little research on January 1917.  First off 1917 was much colder that average and the year is the coldest mean for the whole year at GRR with a mean of 44.6°  Now for January 1918 I do not know how much snow Marshall or Jackson received but according to the official records at Grand Rapids and other locations  the snows in early mid-January 1918 came is two storms one on January 6^th and 7^th and then the one on January 11^th and 12^th Here are some totals from the two storms Grand Rapids Jan 6^th 11” Jan 7^th 2” Jan 12^th 10” Jan 13^th 2” total on the ground 22” Lansing Jan 6^th 5” Jan 7^th 1.5” Jan 11^th 2” Jan 12^th 4.8” total on the ground 15” Detroit Jan 6^th 2” Jan 11^th 1.3” Jan 12^th 3.7” no report of total on the ground. Saginaw Jan 6^th 5.8” Jan 11^th 6.8” Jan 12 1.2” total on the ground 16” All Michigan locations reported lows on the 12^th of -14° or -15° Fort Wane Jan 1^st (yes the 1^st) 5.7” Jan 7^th 4.0” Jan 11^th 4.2” total on the ground 19” coldest low on the 12^th -24° Chicago Jan 6^th 14.4” Jan 7^th 0.5” Jan 11^th 5.9” Jan 12^th 4.0” total on the ground 25” coldest low -14° January 1918 was a cold and snowy month in the great lakes area. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 18.4° (-11.9°) and 45” of snow was reported. I hope this gives you a good idea as to how the winter of 1917/18 turned out but as I said the summer fall leading into it were much different than this year. 

And later Niko had a reply

In what ways?!

And my reply to that was

The summer and fall of 1917/18 were cold, in fact the whole year of 1917 was cold that year had the coldest mean temperature in Grand Rapids

I hope this helps clear that up.

[Niko]

Of note, when discussing 1917-18, much of the cooler summer was explained by volcanism if I'm not mistaken.

 

@Niko, the winter of 1917-18 bore a large resemblance to 2000 or 2013 in my opinion. One of the reasons that 1917-18 gets my attention is reading the descriptions of SST and weather patterns over the Bering Sea during that era.

 

For reference Google "The 'Old-fashioned' Winter of 1917-18". Also of note, I believe the fact that they called it old-fashioned (in its own era) also leads to believe that there was an oddly long era of warm winters with maybe 3-4 brutally cold ones interspersed over a near 30 year period there. Largely different from what folks would really believe based on today's data.

Thanks for the info.......

[Niko]

This is the original post I made on the winter of 1917/17

I did a little research on January 1917.  First off 1917 was much colder that average and the year is the coldest mean for the whole year at GRR with a mean of 44.6°  Now for January 1918 I do not know how much snow Marshall or Jackson received but according to the official records at Grand Rapids and other locations  the snows in early mid-January 1918 came is two storms one on January 6^th and 7^th and then the one on January 11^th and 12^th Here are some totals from the two storms Grand Rapids Jan 6^th 11” Jan 7^th 2” Jan 12^th 10” Jan 13^th 2” total on the ground 22” Lansing Jan 6^th 5” Jan 7^th 1.5” Jan 11^th 2” Jan 12^th 4.8” total on the ground 15” Detroit Jan 6^th 2” Jan 11^th 1.3” Jan 12^th 3.7” no report of total on the ground. Saginaw Jan 6^th 5.8” Jan 11^th 6.8” Jan 12 1.2” total on the ground 16” All Michigan locations reported lows on the 12^th of -14° or -15° Fort Wane Jan 1^st (yes the 1^st) 5.7” Jan 7^th 4.0” Jan 11^th 4.2” total on the ground 19” coldest low on the 12^th -24° Chicago Jan 6^th 14.4” Jan 7^th 0.5” Jan 11^th 5.9” Jan 12^th 4.0” total on the ground 25” coldest low -14° January 1918 was a cold and snowy month in the great lakes area. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 18.4° (-11.9°) and 45” of snow was reported. I hope this gives you a good idea as to how the winter of 1917/18 turned out but as I said the summer fall leading into it were much different than this year. 

And later Niko had a reply

In what ways?!

And my reply to that was

The summer and fall of 1917/18 were cold, in fact the whole year of 1917 was cold that year had the coldest mean temperature in Grand Rapids

I hope this helps clear that up.

Interesting. Thanks!

[westMJim]

Of note, when discussing 1917-18, much of the cooler summer was explained by volcanism if I'm not mistaken.

 

@Niko, the winter of 1917-18 bore a large resemblance to 2000 or 2013 in my opinion. One of the reasons that 1917-18 gets my attention is reading the descriptions of SST and weather patterns over the Bering Sea during that era.

 

For reference Google "The 'Old-fashioned' Winter of 1917-18". Also of note, I believe the fact that they called it old-fashioned (in its own era) also leads to believe that there was an oddly long era of warm winters with maybe 3-4 brutally cold ones interspersed over a near 30 year period there. Largely different from what folks would really believe based on today's data.

Yes there was some volcanic activity before 1917, not sure how much of a inpact it had on the weather of 1917/18 here is some info on that,

 

 

 

“2015 marks the 100th anniversary of the May 22, 1915 explosive volcanic eruption of Lassen Peak in northern California. The eruption forever altered an already dynamic landscape and led to the creation of a national park, which serves as a place of discovery for curious visitors, and a living laboratory for many scientific disciplines. A century after the Lassen eruptions, work by U.S. Geological Survey scientists — in cooperation with the National Park Service — is shedding new light on these events.  USGS and Lassen Volcanic National Park are commemorating the centennial with several events in 2015.

The total volume of the 1915 eruptions was tiny compared to a major eruption like that of Mount St. Helens in 1980. The deposits from the Lassen Peak eruptions are rapidly becoming obscured by vegetation and erosion, and the small size and unconsolidated nature of the thin deposits make the 1915 eruptions unlikely to be preserved in the long-term geologic record. Today, Lassen Peak sleeps again, but active steam vents, hot springs, and bubbling mudpots are still found elsewhere in Lassen Volcanic National Park.”

Here is the complete article

 

https://www.usgs.gov/news/eruptions-lassen-peak-california-1914-1917-%E2%80%94-centennial-commemoration

[Niko]

Yes there was some volcanic activity before 1917, not sure how much of a inpact it had on the weather of 1917/18 here is some info on that,

 

 

 

“2015 marks the 100th anniversary of the May 22, 1915 explosive volcanic eruption of Lassen Peak in northern California. The eruption forever altered an already dynamic landscape and led to the creation of a national park, which serves as a place of discovery for curious visitors, and a living laboratory for many scientific disciplines. A century after the Lassen eruptions, work by U.S. Geological Survey scientists — in cooperation with the National Park Service — is shedding new light on these events.  USGS and Lassen Volcanic National Park are commemorating the centennial with several events in 2015.

The total volume of the 1915 eruptions was tiny compared to a major eruption like that of Mount St. Helens in 1980. The deposits from the Lassen Peak eruptions are rapidly becoming obscured by vegetation and erosion, and the small size and unconsolidated nature of the thin deposits make the 1915 eruptions unlikely to be preserved in the long-term geologic record. Today, Lassen Peak sleeps again, but active steam vents, hot springs, and bubbling mudpots are still found elsewhere in Lassen Volcanic National Park.”

Here is the complete article

 

https://www.usgs.gov/news/eruptions-lassen-peak-california-1914-1917-%E2%80%94-centennial-commemoration

For some reason, volcanoes affect the atmosphere in terms of precipitation and temps. Perhaps, the small ash particles and the aerosol clouds in the air help to cool down the temps.

 

I found this article:

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-do-volcanoes-affect-w/

[jaster220]

"Yes there was some volcanic activity before 1917, not sure how much of a inpact it had on the weather of 1917/18 here is some info on that"

 

 

Well, we often cite Mount Saint Helen as a contributor to the brutal winter of 81-82, so there may be some connection with an eruption in our part of the globe. First I've heard of this 1915 volcano tbh.

[jaster220]

Snagged this off Amwx from a nice post by one of the LOT Met's looking at Nina November's:

 

"In a prior post, Hoosier posted stats for warm La Nina Novembers and what the winters ended up doing. For the research for our local winter outlook at NWS Chicago, I did something similar. First I grouped all winters of the 1950-2017 ONI from the CPC page into warmest 22, middle 23 and coldest 22 at Chicago. Then I grouped the Niña episodes of those terciles into warm (9), near normal (6) and cold (6). Here are the November h5 composites, November climate division temperature anomalies, and subsequent DJF h5 composite anomalies.

 

From these graphics, it appears there will be utility in how the mid/upper pattern sets up in November to potentially give clues to the winter pattern. If a big northeast Pacific/AK vortex sets up, that could increase odds for warmer to well above normal winter, and perhaps within range of normal to below if sustained Aleutian (-WPO) or -EPO ridging sets up."

 

 

 

An avg Nov turns out ok as well, but we really want a cold Nov to elevate our expectations of something special going forward.

[OKwx2k4]

Snagged this off Amwx from a nice post by one of the LOT Met's looking at Nina November's:

 

"In a prior post, Hoosier posted stats for warm La Nina Novembers and what the winters ended up doing. For the research for our local winter outlook at NWS Chicago, I did something similar. First I grouped all winters of the 1950-2017 ONI from the CPC page into warmest 22, middle 23 and coldest 22 at Chicago. Then I grouped the Niña episodes of those terciles into warm (9), near normal (6) and cold (6). Here are the November h5 composites, November climate division temperature anomalies, and subsequent DJF h5 composite anomalies.

 

From these graphics, it appears there will be utility in how the mid/upper pattern sets up in November to potentially give clues to the winter pattern. If a big northeast Pacific/AK vortex sets up, that could increase odds for warmer to well above normal winter, and perhaps within range of normal to below if sustained Aleutian (-WPO) or -EPO ridging sets up."

 

imageproxy (1).jpg

 

An avg Nov turns out ok as well, but we really want a cold Nov to elevate our expectations of something special going forward.

I believe this is spot on.

[Niko]

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

23 October 2017

 

ENSO: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Predictions

 

 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch:

 

Neutral conditions are present.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near to below average across

the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña conditions are favored (~55%65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall

and winter 2017 18.*

[Tom]

CPC's subsurface depth anomalies are showing that the warmer surface waters in the eastern equatorial regions have all but eroded away...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[jaster220]

CPC's subsurface depth anomalies are showing that the warmer surface waters in the eastern equatorial regions have all but eroded away...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Nice, as long as the cold anomalies don't over-run the surface too much, we'll get a mostly neutral scenario this winter I feel. NMME shows borderline Nina/Nada, going only slightly more negative, nothing drastic. Just enough to get the jet (moisture) response we desire..

 

 

 

Actually, I see the NMME was dated the 9th, so here's CPC's from their weekly released today, the 30th. Region 3.4 riding the Nada/Nina line!

 

 

 

[Guest daniel1]

So the La Niña is east based yet we continue to see this eastern ridge from hell keep showing up.

[jaster220]

So the La Niña is east based yet we continue to see this eastern ridge from hell keep showing up.

 

SE ridge is proto-typical Nina pattern. There's a good chance it get's beat-down as we head into and thru winter, but until then it will rear it's head whenever it's able. Also, it's not an official Nina, and even if it was, there's a correlated lag period (not sure what that is tbh) between SST's and atmospheric response, similar to that seen during a SWE. Tom or anyone more knowledgeable can chime in if I'm missing the mark with any of this..

[jaster220]

SE ridge is proto-typical Nina pattern. There's a good chance it get's beat-down as we head into and thru winter, but until then it will rear it's head whenever it's able. Also, it's not an official Nina, and even if it was, there's a correlated lag period (not sure what that is tbh) between SST's and atmospheric response, similar to that seen during a SWE. Tom or anyone more knowledgeable can chime in if I'm missing the mark with any of this..

 

As a follow-up to my own post I found some information that was compiled on East-based vs Central-based Nina. The article is here: 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5

 

While not yet an official Nina by longevity, we can clearly see that whatever level it reaches (or doesn't) that it would be East-based, not central. That alone is a good thing per analogs for our upcoming winter. It's also known that the winter starts off on the warm side with Dec being chilly in the north only, not further south, as I mentioned. The cold begins to intensify after the winter solstice so it's not typically a front-loaded season at all. 

 

East-based 500 mb (JFM)

 

 

 

East-based Temp anom's (JFM)

 

 

 

And by contrast, Central-based Nina temps:

 

 

 

Certainly with this, and a -QBO plus a relatively calm solar situation, there's a LOT of signals for cold after we get thru autumn. Not that it's really hot outside right now..

[OKwx2k4]

As a follow-up to my own post I found some information that was compiled on East-based vs Central-based Nina. The article is here:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5

 

While not yet an official Nina by longevity, we can clearly see that whatever level it reaches (or doesn't) that it would be East-based, not central. That alone is a good thing per analogs for our upcoming winter. It's also known that the winter starts off on the warm side with Dec being chilly in the north only, not further south, as I mentioned. The cold begins to intensify after the winter solstice so it's not typically a front-loaded season at all.

 

East-based 500 mb (JFM)

 

20171031 East Nina JFM 500 mb pattern.jpg

 

East-based Temp anom's (JFM)

 

20171031 East Nina JFM temps.jpg

 

And by contrast, Central-based Nina temps:

 

20171031 Central Nina JFM temps.jpg

 

Certainly with this, and a -QBO plus a relatively calm solar situation, there's a LOT of signals for cold after we get thru autumn. Not that it's really hot outside right now..

Good stuff.

[Tom]

CPC suggesting a 65-75% chance that weak La Nina conditions shall continue through DFM period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

[jaster220]

CPC suggesting a 65-75% chance that weak La Nina conditions shall continue through DFM period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

Saw a blurb yesterday (BAM?) that the Nina has recently relaxed in R1.2 to where it's almost averaging out as neutral, which I'm fine with personally.