3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

[james1976]

Big dry slot in NE & SD right now

[Tom]

Big dry slot in NE & SD right now

Nothing was forecast to fall in that area...the system is sliding SE

[james1976]

Nothing was forecast to fall in that area...the system is sliding SE

Looks like it on radar. Some of the offices mentioned a dry slot. Stay south!

[indianajohn]

With this possible LES set up could we possibly see some area with a foot of snow??? 

[Tom]

With this possible LES set up could we possibly see some area with a foot of snow??? 

Prob not quite that high.  You would need that plume to sit over your area for 4-6hrs which is tough to do and practically never happens.

[Snoorani]

How is euro looking?

[indianajohn]

Prob not quite that high.  You would need that plume to sit over your area for 4-6hrs which is tough to do and practically never happens.

At least not this side of the lake LOL!!

[gosaints]

Wierd to see the euro as moist if noy more moist than other models

[Tom]

Wierd to see the euro as moist if noy more moist than other models

Looks like a tight compact, spun up system. How does it look overall?

[Tom]

GFS may have scored a coup on th EC storm track. Euro hugs the coast this run and tracks over the cape. It was the farthest eastward track while GFS had it more west.

[gosaints]

Looks like a tight compact, spun up system. How does it look overall?

On my phone but looks.better than the gfs synoptically at least 6+ from around herr through southern wi. Along the lake chicago does well 8 or so. More as you head north with of an 11 inch max near mke

[gosaints]

Looks like a tight compact, spun up system. How does it look overall?

Ya euro shows 27 inches ib boston only

[Money]

60-70 mph gusts for hours for NYC/BOS etc with 2 feet of snow

 

Goes from 1003 mb to 977 in 12 hours

[Money]

I mean...

 

[gosaints]

I mean...

 

Amazing hope it verifies just to radar watch

[Niko]

Friends and family there are telling me that supermarkets are all emptied out. This might be a HECS for them. An incredible storm on the way for NYC-BOS. 12z Euro is a beast for entire region. 2'+ looking likely.

 

Btw: my totals suddenly show 9"+!!! Not sure if its an echo or not.

[Tom]

One for the record books if it verifies...

[Tom]

Money, do you have a local map?

[Money]

Money, do you have a local map?

 

I'm not sure how to upload but it shows 7-8 for you 

[Money]

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017031216/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

HRRR showing 7-8 for gosaints area. 

[Money]

RAP:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017031217/021/snku_acc.conus.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Hope yby gets dbl digits buddy, you've been way more patient with this season than I have! Good Luck!

[jaster220]

I am thinking an advisory should be issued for my area this afternoon. I am forecasted for 3-6"+. Surprised they have not issued anything yet.

With so many of the major model runs showing nuisance level totals here I'm really surprised at my headlines over here. Always a head-scratcher with that office I swear!

 

SEMI on the other hand should have one! Good luck over there, bet you wish you were back in NYC

[jaster220]

Amazing hope it verifies just to radar watch

I don't get the whole thing about watching other's mega-storms :-\ ??

 

Be different if we also got them, and it was just "their turn", but come on, this is like the 3rd or 4th bliz over there. makes me wanna puke tbh

[gosaints]

I don't get the whole thing about watching other's mega-storms :-\ ??

 

Be different if we also got them, and it was just "their turn", but come on, this is like the 3rd or 4th bliz over there. makes me wanna puke tbh

I dont get someone else's weather making you want to puke. I think there storms are cool to watch unfold with all the factors that play into them...

[St Paul Storm]

The column is finally saturating here. Snow starting to fall with a little more intensity now. A few heavier bands are making their way in from the west. MPX still calling for 3-6" here. I'll go with 2".

[Snoorani]

[james1976]

Snow just to my west. Lets get this party started!

[WBadgersW]

LOT issued a lake effect watch, curious if MKX will follow suit... It sounded like they will stick with a WWA in their 11am update.

[james1976]

Snow just started

[james1976]

Picking up here. Temp dropped from 30 to 27 within a few mins. Radar back building

[St Paul Storm]

A few storm chasers have live feeds SW of the MSP metro. Crazy low visibility down there.

[WBadgersW]

4K NAM has nearly a 1" of qpf along the WI/Il boarder.

 

3K NAM also shows solid Lehs in Extreme NE Il into SE WI.

 

12k NAM is lame

[Tom]

LOT's Lake Effect Snow Watch...getting interesting here...6-10"+ may be looking pretty good over here...

 

 

 

Lake Effect Snow WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
240 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017


ILZ006-013-014-130345-
/O.NEW.KLOT.LE.A.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KLOT.WW.Y.0003.170313T0600Z-170314T0000Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Wheaton, and Chicago
240 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Watch, which is in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday afternoon.

* TIMING...Snow will overspread northeastern Illinois and around
or slightly after midnight tonight. Snow will continue at times
through Monday afternoon, then expect lake effect snow to begin
developing Monday evening and continue overnight into Tuesday.
Lake effect snow may continue at times through Tuesday.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches through late Monday afternoon.
Heavy lake effect snow could produce additional isolated
snowfall amounts in excess of 6 inches Monday night through
Tuesday.

* OTHER IMPACTS...Visibilities will be reduced during heavier
snowfall. Plan on difficult driving conditions.

[Tom]

18z NAM 4km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017031218/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

18z NAM 3km...Lake/Cook/DuPage county crushed...some parts over 1.25" liquid (that's prob not happening)...clearly indicating there could be convective banding possibly???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031218/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

[Tom]

IMG_0156.PNGIMG_0188.JPG

That is a nice convergence band setting up that hugs the lakeshore...LOT must be impressed with the higher rez modeling...6"+ of lake effect would be...#Awesomeness

[Tom]

@ Tony/FV-Mike...you guys look like your going to cash in on the lake effect...

[Tom]

Is it pixie dust or decent flake size??  NWS offices are saying the dendrite growth zone is respectable.

[james1976]

Great write up from DMX. Talking 6-10 in Warning areas! Also mentioned the dry slot....but that it should stay well south of my area.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Money]

gosaints looks to be in a prime spot again. Amazing winter for Rochester..

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017031220/021/snku_acc.conus.png