March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[tim the weatherman]

See-saw pattern. Everything will be transient for awhile.

tom skilling said too that longer range has cold air to april thanks for the snowcover and he said that by the snowcover the sun rays bounce back into space.

[Geos]

tom skilling said too that longer range has cold air to april thanks for the snowcover and he said that by the snowcover the sun rays bounce back into space.

 

I think our snow cover will be gone in the next 2 weeks, but if it is even 500 miles away, the cold air shots have the ability to be below normal still. 

 

Will be interesting to track changes on this map.

The newer snow up to I-80 that fell after the February thaw should go pretty quickly.

 

[tim the weatherman]

I think our snow cover will be gone in the next 2 weeks, but if it is even 500 miles away, the cold air shots have the ability to be below normal still. 

 

Will be interesting to track changes on this map.

The newer snow up to I-80 that fell after the February thaw should go pretty quickly.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014030605_National.jpg

the gfs outlooks point that there isgoing to be a -pna and +ao so that means that the longer range models sometimes over due themselves and sometimes they are wrong.

[Money]

A lot of the GFS ensembles look nice for mid next week with several showing .75-1.00 QPF. 

 

6z OP GFS is the weakest member of the bunch.

[tim the weatherman]

As the PNA turns negative, the airflow becomes more directly west-to- east.A negative PNA carries diminishing amounts of moisture eastward from California, resulting in cold and snowy weather in the West; rain and snow in the plains; and warm and relatively dry weather in the East.

[abhidupage]

thanks geos that i was watching tom skilling 7 day forecast and he said that the warm spells will increase in frequency and the blocking is not present and winter will be done by the 16th of this month by+ao and -pna.

Im 100% sure he didn't say the winter will be done by the 16th if the long range gfs runs are right temps would be way below normal and would be lucky to get above freezing for the time period your referring to.

[james1976]

thats some cold air on long range GFS

[tim the weatherman]

another reason that we get these cold is by the cold fronts from canada that brings artic air down from there.

[tim the weatherman]

from here until april that we will get mild spells and cold shots is not going to last that long.

[BrianJK]

from here until april that we will get mild spells and cold shots.

 

And some days will be cloudy and some days will be sunny

[Snowshoe]

Cool little nugget in the NWS GRB AFD. A ridiculous 23 below normal for the 1st week of March. 

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THROUGH MARCH 5TH...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT GREEN BAY FOR THE
MONTH OF MARCH WAS 2.6 OR AN INCREDIBLE 23 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[Snowshoe]

Looking at the various GFS runs and it looks pretty boring for the northern midwest. Minus the warm up next Monday it looks like more of the same with no storms. The only bright spot is in GFS fantasy land. I can only wish!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[East Dubzz]

Looking at the various GFS runs and it looks pretty boring for the northern midwest. Minus the warm up next Monday it looks like more of the same with no storms. The only bright spot is in GFS fantasy land. I can only wish!

 

LOCK. IT. IN!!!!

[tim the weatherman]

also i was looking at models in april that we could get cool shots in april and after that it is going to really warm up.

[Tom]

12z GFS took a step in the right direction and kicks the energy out quicker and trying to phase the system in the Midwest.  Previous runs it was leaving the energy back in the SW while the trough kicked out in front of the wave.  Both Euro/GFS ensembles have better phasing.

[tim the weatherman]

just found out that we will looking at an elnino towards next winterso that means we will not have a harsh winter that we saw last winter.

[Money]

Hey Tom, any chance we could get the GGEM snowmaps? Looks like a very good hit from b/w maps

[East Dubzz]

just found out that we will looking at an elnino towards next winterso that means we will not have a harsh winter that we saw last winter.

There is talk of change to an El Niño pattern, but that isn't known for sure at this point. Would mean a winter much different from this year, though, if that were to transpire.

[Tom]

12z GGEM not as cold...and went north.

[stratosjeff]

also i was looking at models in april that we could get cool shots in april and after that it is going to really warm up.

[Money]

Would be a solid storm here. 5+

[East Dubzz]

12z GGEM not as cold...and went north.

Yup, not a bad looking system, but no cold air gets wrapped in..

[tim the weatherman]

There is talk of change to an El Niño pattern, but that isn't known for sure at this point. Would mean a winter much different from this year, though, if that were to transpire.

the're going to have an elnino watch by summer and by the models.

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f138.html

 

12z gfs ensembles look nice.

[tim the weatherman]

tom skilling said on facebook that mild air will be frequent visitors But, with days lengthening and sun angles increasing, incursions of milder air are likely to become more frequent visitors here in coming weeks/months. this month to april.

[Money]

We get it...

[Sciascia]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f138.html

 

12z gfs ensembles look nice.

Indeed they do. Happy to have things to keep an eye on.

[gosaints]

Getting close to the time of the year for big dogs in the upper midwest

[Tom]

12z Euro blowing up a monster cutting up the OV...

[gosaints]

By sunday it will be hammering Chicago

[Tom]

Euro showing good phasing near OK/AR area as it heads ENE up near Kentucky with a 985mb SLP.  Very possible for a NW trend.

[gosaints]

Anyone east of the Mississippi is in the game

[tim the weatherman]

was just outside and it feels so mild that the snow is starting to melt.

[Sciascia]

was just outside and it feels so mild that the snow is starting to melt.

Man, you've really jumped on the warmth train, huh? Lol.

 

I'm gonna be over here with the people that believe winter isn't over yet. And yes, I've read your posts about March 16th/18th, the PNA/AO/EPO/etc., but I'll take my chances in thinking we haven't seen our last flakes (or accumulating snow for that matter) of the season just yet.

[Tom]

The later half of March is going to be very interesting with a possible major late season arctic surge and plenty of storminess.  This could even lead into April.  Baseball season may have some implications of snow from what I'm seeing.  Warm weather fans will be flying the White Flag when we are done with this winter.  If you really think a pattern like we have experienced this winter will turn warm in a sea of cold, you must be seeing something different.  I'm also noticing a buldge in strat warming in N.A. and now forming over east Asia/Alaska region which can set the table for a mid/late March outbreak of cold.

[james1976]

the Euro hates Iowa.

[East Dubzz]

Really does feel nice out today! And it's only 20 out...

[tim the weatherman]

Really does feel nice out today!

i was just outside and cleard snow off the driveway and it is so nice that the snow is starting to melt and i am thinking that we will get at lease two more shots of artic air before we start to warm up.

[BrianJK]

i was just outside and cleard snow off the driveway and it is so nice that the snow is starting to melt and i am thinking that we will get at lease two more shots of artic air before we start to warm up.

 

So you think we get AT LEAST 2 more shots of arctic air... And also think that we will not have any more snow this winter

 

Interesting 

[Niko]

ALERT, ALERT...............Latest 12Z Euro throws 30-42" to NE Ohio, NW and extreme north PA thru about its center point and then much of western NY. Wow, Euro really wants to phase this storm.