March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Sciascia]

Everyone here is excited about a monster snow storm possibly developing.

Not everyone. Really only seems to be myself, Money, and Tom.

[tim the weatherman]

did some figuring that our winter will come to a close by the 16th of this month.

[Tom]

I'd like to see one more big storm to put the icing on the cake for this winter.  This storm has a lot of potential and ORD is about 16" away from the all-time record.  It would be a far fetch to get that much from 1 storm, however, if this storm phases into a monster and cuts up the lower lakes then we have a good shot.

[Niko]

Tom..the only thing that scares me is the PV up north in Hudson Bay, Canada. Hopefully, the PV wont keep it too far south, but, let it come north enough to provide us with some substantial snowfall.

[Geos]

Once I break my snowfall record for this winter, then, Spring can come anytime, but until I break it, I will be rooting for the big storm and cold weather. Folks, I am only 9inches away from having an all-time record snowiest season ever. This winter better break the record. We did not come this close for nothing.

 

i think you'll make it. 

 

No way will I make 2007-2008's total.

[Geos]

did some figuring that our winter will come to a close by the 16th of this month.

 

Would be nice to see the grass for St. Patrick's Day! Even though it won't be green! 

 

Wow, up to 46° at home. 43° here near downtown Racine.

[Sleather]

Not everyone. Really only seems to be myself, Money, and Tom.

 

I'm always game for a nice storm. One of my earliest memories of a blizzard was in an Iowa farmhouse in the late '50's. March. Warm weather one day. Blinding blizzard that night. Warm next day.... Kerosene lanterns, cookstove, whole nine yards.... March is a fun month!

[tim the weatherman]

Would be nice to see the grass for St. Patrick's Day! Even though it won't be green! 

 

Wow, up to 46° at home. 43° here near downtown Racine.

i won't be sure that i heard that we have a storm by next week.

[Sciascia]

I'm always game for a nice storm. One of my earliest memories of a blizzard was in an Iowa farmhouse in the late '50's. March. Warm weather one day. Blinding blizzard that night. Warm next day.... Kerosene lanterns, cookstove, whole nine yards.... March is a fun month!

I agree! It just feels like "winter" has become a dirty word the last few days. We all know warmth is coming, it's common knowledge. I just want to openly celebrate winter as long as we've still got it.

[The Snowman]

did some figuring that our winter will come to a close by the 16th of this month.

Doubt it, mid-April looks good.

[james1976]

Not everyone. Really only seems to be myself, Money, and Tom.

No way...i want more.

[Sciascia]

No way...i want more.

Glad to have you aboard!

[jaster220]

No way...i want more.

 

Glad to have you aboard!

 

Yep, count me in too!

[East Dubzz]

Even I have said I'm down for another big storm, just not the brutal cold!!

 

38 degrees here currently, has steadied off since the clouds rolled in.

[Jaycee]

Yeah me too guys, still waiting on my first snowfall of the year that's not a dusting.

[BrianJK]

For me, once winter starts, i want to hang on to it as long as possible.  Then you have these other Nancies who get all hyped up for snow when fall starts only to b!tch and moan when we finally get a historic winter.  It's rediculous.  For those of you sick of winter, take some time away from here until severe weather is on the horizon...Or you can be condensending like Geos and give us an update at how much the snow is melting  ; )

[NEJeremy]

did some figuring that our winter will come to a close by the 16th of this month.

 

What does that even mean? You sat down and crunched all the numbers and figures and based on your calculations the numbers showed the 16th exactly? What does that mean, "winter will come to a close by the 16th"? Do you mean all snow will end on that day? There will be no more below normal temps? There will be no more sub freezing temps? Last I heard snow can fall in the fall and the spring and temps get below freezing in the fall and the spring. So exactly what are you saying is going to happen exactly on the 16th? You've made such a broad statment that doesn't really even say anything....

[Tom]

18z GFS taking on the look what the 12z Euro was showing from what it looks like and developing a SLP in the Plains...

[Tom]

18z GFS...

[Geos]

Weather is weather, it will do what it wants to do. 

 

Update from LOT regarding temps on Monday and Tuesday. Calling for at least 50s now, maybe even 60°!

 

 

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST WILL
TRANSLATE EAST AND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR IN THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL PUSH H85
TEMPS INTO THE 11C TO 13C RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR COMPARISON...
H85 TEMPS TODAY ARE ONLY AROUND 5C WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
40S. LOCAL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY STUDY SHOWS MEDIAN TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S FOR CHICAGO WHEN H85 TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE AROUND 9C.
DESPITE ANY LINGERING SNOWPACK...EXPECT TO EAT AWAY AND PERHAPS
MELT A GOOD PORTION OF IT AS DEWPOINTS PUSH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT
THE SNOWFALL WILL HAVE...BUT WITH TEMPS EASILY PUSHING MID 40S
TODAY..SUSPECT WE MAY BE LOW IF ANYTHING FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
BLENDED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECBC WHICH OFTEN VERIFIES WELL UNDER A
THERMAL RIDGE...AND DISMISSED THE GFS AND NAM WHICH ARE TOO HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
50S ACROSS THE CWA...EVEN A FEW 60S SOUTH OF I-80.

 

 

That would be the end of the snow cover streak if true.

High of 47° back home today.

[tim the weatherman]

 

Weather is weather, it will do what it wants to do. 

 

Update from LOT regarding temps on Monday and Tuesday. Calling for at least 50s now, maybe even 60°!

 

 

That would be the end of the snow cover streak if true.

High of 47° back home today.

 

that is good news geos that maybe we will get warmer weather after this without any more snow.

[tim the weatherman]

 

Weather is weather, it will do what it wants to do. 

 

Update from LOT regarding temps on Monday and Tuesday. Calling for at least 50s now, maybe even 60°!

 

 

That would be the end of the snow cover streak if true.

High of 47° back home today.

 

just looked at my forecast that the high on monday will be in the upper 50's and looked at friday's high tha is at 51.

[FiNsTa]

 

 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST

SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF

THIS LOW THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY

SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR

BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUNGING WELL

BELOW NORMAL. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH THE THE COLD AIR WOULD BE

TEMPORARY...MODERATING BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

[BrianJK]

think i may open my pool next week

[DominicR]

Wed is looking a bit interesting. Skilling mentioned this at noon. GFS hinting weak OV low and brings light precip here. I noticed CMC Money posted this morning and EURO pretty big. Something keep an eye out over next 24-48hrs.

[East Dubzz]

DVN not so confident about a consistent NW Flow again by late next week and said the cool down may be short lived before going back to around normal/slightly above normal..

 

Also mention about keeping an eye on the system early next week... But it appears if it does turn into something, it'll be more the southern half of Iowa..

[tim the weatherman]

i was looking at the epo and the wpo and by the 16th that both will go negative.

[Geos]

Lost most of the new snow that fell this week. Powdery snow doesn't have any staying power. You'd think it was a summer night by the amount of people out!

 

Another satellite image showing the lake ice breakup.

 

[tim the weatherman]

Lost most of the new snow that fell this week. Powdery snow doesn't have any staying power. You'd think it was a summer night by the amount of people out!

 

Another satellite image showing the lake ice breakup.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-7389-0-21112200-1394238848.png

good news geos.

[midwest buildit]

I might be a little biased when I talk about snowpack. Its snowing when I'm out plowing and I'm usually just hanging around the house/garage between snows. I went out and measured the snow in the back yard today and I have anywhere between 8" and 19". And the areas with 8 are only next to the house and garage. The main part of the yard is mostly between 12" and 19". And when I was walking it today I only sank about 4". So its pretty solid.

 

So I may be a little biased when I talk about snowcover. And I feel a little spoiled with it after I drove around some today. I would post pics but the limit is still to small.

[East Dubzz]

I might be a little biased when I talk about snowpack. Its snowing when I'm out plowing and I'm usually just hanging around the house/garage between snows. I went out and measured the snow in the back yard today and I have anywhere between 8" and 19". And the areas with 8 are only next to the house and garage. The main part of the yard is mostly between 12" and 19". And when I was walking it today I only sank about 4". So its pretty solid.

 

So I may be a little biased when I talk about snowcover. And I feel a little spoiled with it after I drove around some today. I would post pics but the limit is still to small.

Snow pack is very solid around my house too because it gets limited sunshine, I probably have over a foot in a lot of areas as well. Did take a pretty big hit today, but still solid.

[BrianJK]

good news geos.

 

Dont be modest... thats fantastic news!

[tim the weatherman]

this is our current snow depth.http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Midwest/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014030705_Midwest.jpg

[Geos]

Yeah the snow pack is shallower up to the north actually. The snow is quite wet and mushy now. I'd say anywhere between 6-12" on my yard with grass showing up around the evergreen trees. Shallower yet in Kenosha and Racine.

[East Dubzz]

A little bit of fog here right now..

[Geos]

A little bit of fog here right now..

 

I can feel the air getting heavier here as well. Dewpoints are creeping up towards freezing. Something we haven't experienced in awhile.

 

There is radar returns overhead, but so far virga.

[tim the weatherman]

I can feel the air getting heavier here as well. Dewpoints are creeping up towards freezing. Something we haven't experienced in awhile.

just looked at my current conditions and i have a dewpoint at 32.

[Geos]

Starting to rain here at 39°. Just put my rain gauge back out.

[East Dubzz]

I can feel the air getting heavier here as well. Dewpoints are creeping up towards freezing. Something we haven't experienced in awhile.

 

There is radar returns overhead, but so far virga.

Radar showed some rain here as well, but I haven't been outside for a little while now and forgot to put out my rain guage... Shucks

[tim the weatherman]

the blocking over alaska and siberia will be completey gone by the 22 of this month.