March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Money]

Tom, how the euro looking on that strong clipper?

 

Oh, but according to the24weatherman it's supposed to be over by March 16th.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[NEJeremy]

12z Euro...

 

No snow for Nebraska AGAIN!! at least it's not butt a** cold still and no snow. 69 here right now, supposed to be the same tomorrow, then a brief cool down on Tuesday w/ some rain/snow mix before it warms right back up into the 50s and maybe even 60 the rest of the week.

[Geos]

Tom, how the euro looking on that strong clipper?

 

Oh, but according to the24weatherman it's supposed to be over by March 16th.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Everyone has a different definitions of cold and winter also.

[Money]

NAM showing 7-8+ for Chicago for this upcoming storm lol

[Scott26]

NAM showing 7-8+ for Chicago for this upcoming storm lol

Definitely some serious interaction between the southern and northern stream that run. It really allows it to amplify and take on more of a negative tilt. The track of this system is still very uncertain and we really can't jump to any consensus at this point. If the models continue to paint more of an interesting solution for the Great Lakes region we should definitely make a thread.

[Tom]

Just started a thread...

[Money]

I heard the 12z euro ensembles were much farther NW than the OP btw. Not sure if that's accurate but that's what someone said on American.

[tim the weatherman]

From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH

[midwest buildit]

forecast was for 43 here today. only made it to 38 here so far.

[Tom]

The clouds today hampered any significant melting.  Tomorrow may be a different story but if we can manage to keep a lot of the snow cover tomorrow, Tuesday night is looking very interesting so the snow cover streak may still continue.

[BrianJK]

Tom, how the euro looking on that strong clipper?

 

Oh, but according to the24weatherman it's supposed to be over by March 16th.

 

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Everyone has a different definitions of cold and winter also.

 

still think by anyone's definition that winter is by no means over

[Geos]

However you look at it winter will be over by the 20th.

 

WAA still on the increase. 37° here, but is projected to rise to 45° by 1am with above freezing dewpoints by sunrise.

Lost a couple inches today.

[Money]

Supposed to be 43 today.

 

34 right now

[Tom]

There ya go Geo's, making a prediction that winter will be over by the 20th.  Now we are making things interesting.

[BrianJK]

thats only by his (and his sidekick's) definition though

[Geos]

There ya go Geo's, making a prediction that winter will be over by the 20th.  Now we are making things interesting.

 

20th in the Equinox...

Any snow beyond that, is just a taste of winter in spring imo. I've always considered the that the end of winter, no matter what happens afterwards. Edit: I don't know of anyone personally that would refute/disagree with that take.

 

Anyways...

 

The warm front is lagging a bit. Hasn't even gotten through MN yet.

 

[tim the weatherman]

20th in the Equinox...

Any snow beyond that, is just a taste of winter in spring imo. I've always considered the that the end of winter, no matter what happens afterwards.

 

Anyways...

 

The warm front is lagging a bit. Hasn't even gotten through MN yet.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namncsfcwbg.gif

geos does make a good point no matter what that you guys want winter to drag on into spring because of fanasty weather that will not happen.

[tim the weatherman]

There ya go Geo's, making a prediction that winter will be over by the 20th.  Now we are making things interesting it is ture by the hastings nws office because

it is true by the hastings neb forecastings office because the pna is going negative so that means we will have a flip in the pattren so that means west cold and wet and the east will be warm and dry.

[East Dubzz]

Highs in the 50s tomorrow with not too strong of a wind. Holy cow is that gonna feel nice.

 

Up to 42 here currently, right about forecasted..

[Tom]

18z GFS has some serious late season cold invading the Upper Midwest next Saturday...I see it is correcting the cold to be centered moreso into C Canada.

[Money]

Nice 1040 H coming down into ND/MN area.

[Tom]

I forsee a wicked weather pattern to take shape and close out the month of March.  SSW is certainly making me believe that we are not done with winter this month.  We may even have a record cold outbreak to finish off the month if everything pans out just right.

[Tom]

If the 18z GFS is any indication of what is in store, a lot of us will have extended higher heating bills this month.  Major trough showing up March 16-18th period.  Right in line with my predictions.

[Money]

Yikes at the GFS. Below zero temps showing up in MN/WI. 

[Geos]

geos does make a good point no matter what that you guys want winter to drag on into spring because of fanasty weather that will not happen.

 

It's kind of like this.. What if you had a freak snowfall in early May, but up until that time it was in the 60s and 70s?! Would you consider it winter or spring. It's just like that snowfall we had on Veterans Day.. it was a taste of winter in Autumn.

 

...Would you consider March 2012 spring or summer! lol. I rest my case.

[tim the weatherman]

It's kind of like this.. What if you had a freak snowfall in early May, but up until that time it was in the 60s and 70s?! Would you consider it winter or spring. It's just like that snowfall we had on Veterans Day.. it was a taste of winter in Autumn.

 

...Would you consider March 2012 spring or summer! lol. I rest my case.

springin early may and winter in mid nov  geos that when you get temps in the 60s or 70s that you have rain than snow.

From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES

FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA

LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND

EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW

HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS

THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS

A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

[james1976]

springin early may and winter in mid nov  geos that when you get temps in the 60s or 70s that you have rain than snow.

From Hastings NWS this morning, March 9.

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES

FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA

LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND

EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW

HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS

THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS

A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

We can only hope this comes true.

if im understanding this AFD correctly, it means more winter. so you want winter to continue??? cuz you just said "we can only hope this comes true". i dont get it. so do u want winter or spring weather?

[james1976]

It's kind of like this.. What if you had a freak snowfall in early May, but up until that time it was in the 60s and 70s?! Would you consider it winter or spring. It's just like that snowfall we had on Veterans Day.. it was a taste of winter in Autumn.

 

...Would you consider March 2012 spring or summer! lol. I rest my case.

i had a 9" snowfall on May 2nd last year. it was epic!

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles agree with a very cold pattern setting up in the 8-15 Day range.

[tim the weatherman]

if im understanding this AFD correctly, it means more winter. so you want winter to continue??? cuz you just said "we can only hope this comes true". i dont get it. so do u want winter or spring weather?

this is a misunderstanding that a negative pna means cold weather for the eastren us and the west still in warm weather while the -pna means that the west is colder and wet while the east warms and dry.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, unless I am mistaken, if they are going off a -PNA, that would mean trough in the west and ridging in the east. Which would probably be colder for Hastings, but would think it would bring milder or warmer weather to our area.

[Sciascia]

Winter is over on the 20th/21st, but winter-like conditions may continue to persist into April. I wouldn't jump on fantasy-land scenarios, but I won't ignore 100% because you never know. I remember a year where the Cubs game in April got snowed out. Considering we're still in March, I wouldn't be surprised to see one more good snow hit.

 

Extreme thermal differences tend to create moisture-filled storms. And with March being one of those roller-coaster temperature months, things can happen. Snow makers and rain makers.

[midwest buildit]

guys, have we really been dragged all the way down to arguing the definition of winter and spring. I don't really  care if you guys call it the silly clown period or the willy wonka season. Can we all just get along and get back to the weather? Like posting models and discussing them. i believe there is some good  model discrepancies out here right now that makes for better discussion than if winter is spelled with a W or an S...lol

[Geos]

i had a 9" snowfall on May 2nd last year. it was epic!

 

I've heard that a late snowfall, makes the grass green up quicker. Is that true?

 

Btw: Do you have any snow left? I see it's in the 50s out by you now.

 

Yes, we're going to get back on track.

 

I can't fathom why the EURO is showing that much of a negative anomaly...

[Geos]

This is kind of confusing. But maybe a east based -PNA cools Nebraska off. Never really paid attention to the PNA much until the last couple winters.

 

 

BEYOND: WE STILL SEE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT RESULTS IN A WRN USA
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING AROUND TUE 3/18. THE EC CONTROL RUN AND
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CO LOW
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE NOT SEE THIS ALL WINTER LONG AS
THE PATTERN HAS NOT SUPPORTED IT. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT QPF. THE SHIFT TO A -PNA PATTERN SUGGESTS
A PERIOD OF COLD WX TOWARD THE END OF THIS MONTH.

 

[East Dubzz]

This is kind of confusing. But maybe a east based -PNA cools Nebraska off. Never really paid attention to the PNA much until the last couple winters.

Yeah that's what we were just talking about. -PNA would typically bring us milder weather at least, but like you said, maybe Nebraska would be cooler. I do like our chances at getting a storm if that were to happen. At least maybe another storm that wouldn't go south..

[midwest buildit]

I've heard that a late snowfall, makes the grass green up quicker. Is that true?

 

Yes, we're going to get back on track.

snow contains nitogen, a natural fertilizer. When the ground is warm in the spring, that nitrogen and other things from a fresh snowfall get absorbed right into the ground. Vs when the ground is frozen and some of the nutrients run off and evaporate.

[tim the weatherman]

This is kind of confusing. But maybe a east based -PNA cools Nebraska off. Never really paid attention to the PNA much until the last couple winters.

i don't think it's going to be neb i am thinking that it is west of neb and the plains.

[Geos]

snow contains nitogen, a natural fertilizer. When the ground is warm in the spring, that nitrogen and other things from a fresh snowfall get absorbed right into the ground. Vs when the ground is frozen and some of the nutrients run off and evaporate.

 

Cool. Thanks for that explanation. Maybe I should wish for a wet snowfall in mid April or something. Hasn't happened in awhile. 

 

Someone told me lightning does something for the plants, but that seems a bit of a wife's tale.