March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Trinomial]

There were several storms this year where the nam did quite well. Overall, it has a terrible track record days out, but it did sneak in a couple wins this season.

[Geos]

NAM at 84hr lol. This model needs to go in garbage.

 

+1

 

Even the 4km is kind of bad.

[Money]

0z GFS trended big time towards the other models. Not as strong or hefty with the QPF, but it drops 3-4 across WI. 

[The Snowman]

As many as 5 storms expected to traverse the US in the next 2 to 3 weeks. I'm posting about them on my blog today and tomorrow, a LOT of activity around Japan indicating we'll be tracking storms for days to come.

[Money]

GGEM is awful. Blows up the east coast storm around HR 96-108. 

[Tom]

I wonder how deep we can build the snow pack back up this month if all these systems line up just right.  Would be stoked if we can get 12"+ snow depths by mid March into late March.  If the cold reloads as expected, we shouldn't melt a lot of it away. 

[Money]

GFS in the long range. Cold and snowy.

 

12-14 across most of WI with 3-4 dif. systems. One big system around the HR 216 range, followed by temps not even reaching 20 for high on the 29th at the end of its run.

[Sciascia]

GFS in the long range. Cold and snowy.

 

12-14 across most of WI with 3-4 dif. systems. One big system around the HR 216 range, followed by temps not even reaching 20 for high on the 29th at the end of its run.

Yep. GFS also has 4-5" for Chicago, which would make us #2 on the all-time list. Nevertheless, I'm fairly certain ORD will get #2 since it's only 3.2" away. I'm not as certain about achieving #1 (10.6" away), but there is at least a realistic chance at reaching it.

[Tom]

ORD has an excellent chance at breaking the record by the end of the month.  Heck, it wouldn't surprise me to hit 100" if a lot of the storms that are predicted to come out of the SW towards the end of the month according to the LRC.

[Money]

Euro looking good at HR 120 yet.

 

988 L in SD

 

Nearly identical placement as 0z from last night

 

 

Edit: Rain storm. 

[FiNsTa]

ORD has an excellent chance at breaking the record by the end of the month.  Heck, it wouldn't surprise me to hit 100" if a lot of the storms that are predicted to come out of the SW towards the end of the month according to the LRC.

So you think between now and March 31, we will see 20" more of snow? lol...

[Geos]

Hit 11° this morning, but already approaching 20° here in Racine.

 

By tomorrow night there is going to be bare ground in my area. Current 7 day forecast has only one day below 30° (Sunday).

[Tony]

0z Euro looks to lose next weeks storm but how many times has this happened where the Euro will lose it only to have it come back and I don't see this being any different.

 

As far as this late weekend storm where most models keep it south(GFS has it in MX) and of course the NAM has it alot farther north. Probably nothing will come of it but it still needs to be watched just in the sense that models have been off this winter and we are in midst of the change of seasons where storms can really blow up and we still have plenty of cold air hanging around.

 

I think most of us are ready for spring but I still feel we probably will have a couple more winter storms come through our area before winter calls it quits and you can see it on the modeling although it is one day on and the next day gone.

[Geos]

Lake Michigan ice as it stood yesterday afternoon.

Some big chunks along the MI shoreline, but nothing much to the western shoreline.

 

[East Dubzz]

Clearing taking place and the sun about to start making an impact. Still in the mid 20s, but expected to get into the mid 40s as a high today, gonna be a nice day today and tomorrow.

[Sciascia]

OT, but it sucks we gotta wait until November 2nd for models to run at their old times. Still not used to a 10:30 GFS run yet.

[East Dubzz]

OT, but it sucks we gotta wait until November 2nd for models to run at their old times. Still not used to a 10:30 GFS run yet.

This is very true. I don't mind most of them because I'm up anyway, just sucks about the Euro personally, though, because that's too late for me now.

[Geos]

The 0z EURO has been late for me since I started working in Racine. Always have to catch that in the morning. Now the GGEM is a bit late for me!

 

Cloudy now, but temp is continuing to inch upwards.

[Tom]

12z GFS showing some snow in IA this weekend...siding with the NAM.  Then big snows for early next week showing up in MN/WI. 

[jaster220]

Wow Nebraska missed again. It is to the point of desperation around here for anything. We had a 90% of rain yesterday and got a trace. I have asked farmers in this area what they think and they are very worried. We have been below average precipitation wise for several years. The ground has cracks in my backyard. I realize it is great to set snowfall records in chicago but this dry spell could cost not just Nebraska but the nation for food costs.

 

To every Chicagoan:

 

 

If I ever hear you complain about a 3-6" snow again, I will personally drive out there and pimp slap every one of you! Haha only kidding, but nothing grinds my gears more than hearing complaints about snowfall from you folks over there, not saying anyone really did, but there have been instances recently where it's like.. bros, do you even drought? Because we do. And none of you know how bad it sucks because you haven't had it near as bad as we have. Who would've thought that after a 2012 where we literally fried from winter until the spring of 2013 where we somehow recovered from most of it, Nebraska would become a wasteland AGAIN. To hear you guys in Chicago having a record-breaking year, and even parts of Iowa, to have a year here in the Plains where we've received no snow, no sleet, no freezing rain, no rain, but dry conditions and the bone chilling cold that you guys have received, it just hurts man! 

 

Sorry for the rant, it's not like you guys can do anything about the weather, it just really really sucks out here. It's been hard for us in the Plains forum to get any topic started because of this, so that's why you see all of us in here a lot of the time. Speaking on behalf of my Nebraskan bros, we'd all REALLY appreciate it if you guys could update us on if there is any incoming weather for our area. I mean anything, like the LRC changing, La Nina/El Nino, you name it, if it's mentioned we'd all be stoked, because we're starving for precip, and anything to potentially keep our hopes up that change is coming would be awesome. You guys are the ones that got me into weather, and I've been looking up to most of you on the Great Lakes forum since westernusawx way back when. I'm still a rookie, and love hearing your guys' input especially when you mention us out here in the Plains. Just wanted to throw that out there!

 

That's how it was over here in SMI during summer 2012. It's "the pits" and I totally sympathize. Yours is prolly worse though with the length being more than just one season. Hoping you get something soon (spring flip?) and I know yours is coming eventually as Ma Nature has to keep things balanced out. Now, I'm in the midst of an historically cold and snowy winter, so hang in there, you guys will get yours too!

 

 

I wonder how deep we can build the snow pack back up this month if all these systems line up just right.  Would be stoked if we can get 12"+ snow depths by mid March into late March.  If the cold reloads as expected, we shouldn't melt a lot of it away. 

 

I wish I could truck some of mine over to ya!   After yesterday's 8+, back to at least 17" OTG, had -12*F this morning, and up to a rockin 16*F under full sun after 12pm. Spring? whatever..     

[james1976]

GFS shows 2 different storms for me over the next 5 days. Not counting on that. Models are a mess right now. How can a meteorologist make a forecast?

[CentralNebWeather]

I really look forward to checking this site out daily.  I am a social studies teacher and we talk weather and climate in class.  I have learned more from this site in one year than time in college.  We are just jealous of the amount of storminess you have had this year and our missing out on almost every storm this winter.  I sometimes refer to a bubble over our county and Nebraska at different times of the year.  If we are truly going into an el nino pattern next winter things could get real interesting.  The last time that our area really benefited from that pattern was in 2006-2007.  Our area of Central Nebraska had 2 massive ice storms that devasted our community with downed power lines, tree loss, trees falling on houses, buildings, cars.   The 2nd one on Dec. 29-30, 2006 saw us lose power for over week and many were without power for several weeks.  We had other wet snow storms that winter that really benefited our agricultural area.  Not hoping for ice storms but I believe an el nino pattern might be what Nebraska needs (though no 2 el nino's are alike).

[james1976]

Although the GFS is encouraging considering the other models were showing these systems before. Maybe 12z Euro will bring some back.

[Geos]

Except for a couple light snow chances, the GFS looks fairly tranquil for next week. 

 

Showing a big rain system for the 22nd and 23rd.

 

I hope Nebraska's luck turns pretty soon. I wish I could wish some of the precipitation that falls here, out to the west!

[DominicR]

I really look forward to checking this site out daily.  I am a social studies teacher and we talk weather and climate in class.  I have learned more from this site in one year than time in college.  We are just jealous of the amount of storminess you have had this year and our missing out on almost every storm this winter.  I sometimes refer to a bubble over our county and Nebraska at different times of the year.  If we are truly going into an el nino pattern next winter things could get real interesting.  The last time that our area really benefited from that pattern was in 2006-2007.  Our area of Central Nebraska had 2 massive ice storms that devasted our community with downed power lines, tree loss, trees falling on houses, buildings, cars.   The 2nd one on Dec. 29-30, 2006 saw us lose power for over week and many were without power for several weeks.  We had other wet snow storms that winter that really benefited our agricultural area.  Not hoping for ice storms but I believe an el nino pattern might be what Nebraska needs (though no 2 el nino's are alike).

 

Awesome. It was one of my favorite subjects in school. Loved hearing about the battles during american revolutionary war, roaring 20's, Great Depression and World War 2.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...showing a lower lakes cutter...

[Money]

ukie looks like a cutter

[Tony]

What the heck happend to our warmup today...it is cold outside!!

[Geos]

What the heck happend to our warmup today...it is cold outside!!

 

Wait for the clouds to clear!

 

 

30s to near 40° west of these clouds.

[Tony]

Euro so far looks alot farther north with the weekend precip.

[Tom]

@ Tony, the Sunday system is looking interesting.  Still to far south for us in N IL, but EURO/GFS/NAM all showing snow for IA.  The HP to the north is keeping it from coming to far north for us over here.  Sunday is shaping up to be a cold day with winds off the icy waters of Lake Michigan.

[Tony]

^Baby stepping its way but you are probably right Tom about that hp keeping the northward movement in check. You would figure this time of the year it would not be a problem but these HP's this year have been brutal for us but perfect for those down south near I70.

[East Dubzz]

Wait for the clouds to clear!

 

 

30s to near 40° west of these clouds.

Yup, all about tensor clouds breaking. Temps really starting increasing once clearing took place here... Up into the upper 30s now.

[Tom]

12z Euro still taking next week's system north into Upper Midwest...

[East Dubzz]

Up to 42! Might get above guidance, which is 44..

[Geos]

Up to 32° here, clearing line quickly approaching.

 

And here comes the sun! Euro showing 52° here tomorrow.

[Money]

Hey Tom, do you have the euro snow maps?

 

Thanks.

[Geos]

EURO snowfall through 108 hours.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro...as of now it is EURO/GFS vs UKIE/GGEM/JMA for next week's system.  Find it hard to believe a system cuts up into Upper Midwest where there is a sprawling HP in Canada.

[Money]

GFS/EURO with 8+ for GB CWA and GGEM/UKIE are too far south for here

 

lol