March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Money]

GB AFD

 

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE INCREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS LATE. SO EXPECT
EARLY OVERNIGHT LOWS BEFORE TEMPS RISE. THEN WARM ADVECTION KICKS
IN ON MONDAY WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. MODELS WEAKEN THE CLIPPER AS
IT MOVES INTO NE WISCONSIN...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH
THIS CLIPPER...SO EXPECT MORE CHANGES IN THE DETAILS IN THE COMING
MODEL RUNS. THEN WILL BE WATCHING FOR A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH
WARM AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA...BUT DONT EXPECT TO GET A HANDLE ON
THIS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. WILL BROAD BRUSH WITH SNOW OVER THE
NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW OVER THE SOUTH. THEN COLD ADVECTION SETS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

 

MKE AFD

 

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS WITH THE SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE EC IS GOING A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...MEANING A LITTLE COLDER. ANY INITIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. BUT
WARMER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES BY TUE AFTERNOON TURNING THINGS OVER TO
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. WE SHOULD EVEN POP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
FOR HIGHS ON TUE. THE LOW EXITS TUE NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
SPILLING IN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A TRANSITION BACK OVER
TO LIGHT SNOW WITH TIME. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR SOLUTIONS TO
CHANGE AND GIVEN THE POSSIBLE COMPLEXITIES...CONFIDENCE IS
CHALLENGED WITH THIS ONE AT THIS POINT.

 

 

LSE AFD

 

FINALLY...WHAT COULD BE A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE NEXT WEEK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME INCREASED MODEL
CONSISTENCY. 13.12Z ECMWF/GEM/GFS ALL SHOW SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. HOW
AMPLIFIED THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DICTATES THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW
THAT SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SHOW A
KANSAS CITY TO CHICAGO TRACK...THOUGH THE MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE
HIGH. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
13.12Z ECMWF MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM. FOR NOW...A MODEL
CONSENSUS PAINTS 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF THE FORECAST COULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH INTRODUCES SOME PTYPE CONCERNS WHILE THE OTHER
HALF COULD SEE DEFORMATION BAND SNOW. CERTAINLY SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SWINGS SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER WAY ARE
POSSIBLE.

 

[tim the weatherman]

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN

UPPER WAVE DIGGING FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE RESULTING TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPS WITH HIGH BUST

POTENTIAL OF AND VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST

TEMPS. SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOW

TRACK/TIMING RANGING FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA AND AS FAR

NORTH AS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS SOME CLUSTERING OF THE

GEFS/GFS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY TUESDAY

AFTERNOON...AND THE EMCWF TRACKS ACROSS THAT AREA AS WELL ALTHOUGH

A DAY LATER. AT THE MOMENT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME TREND

TOWARDS A SLOWER/WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH WARMER

TEMPS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR

TUESDAY BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM A BLENDED CONSENSUS SOLUTION

GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. AS MODELS START TO LOCK

ONTO A BETTER TRACK IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO

SEE SOME HEFTY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS.(from lot)

 

[Geos]

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO ANUPPER WAVE DIGGING FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.THE RESULTING TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPS WITH HIGH BUSTPOTENTIAL OF AND VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECASTTEMPS. SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOWTRACK/TIMING RANGING FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA AND AS FARNORTH AS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS SOME CLUSTERING OF THEGEFS/GFS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY TUESDAYAFTERNOON...AND THE EMCWF TRACKS ACROSS THAT AREA AS WELL ALTHOUGHA DAY LATER. AT THE MOMENT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME TRENDTOWARDS A SLOWER/WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH WARMERTEMPS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FORTUESDAY BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM A BLENDED CONSENSUS SOLUTIONGIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. AS MODELS START TO LOCKONTO A BETTER TRACK IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TOSEE SOME HEFTY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS.(from lot)

 

Well the AO and NAO remain +, so I can see the logic of a westerly track. PNA flips eventually coming up.

[tim the weatherman]

Well the AO and NAO remain +, so I can see the logic of a westerly track. PNA flips eventually coming up.

i have been looking at the temp probabilty from the cpc that we will remaim below temps thru 27th of this month that we will have temprature swings for the next two weeks.

[Geos]

i have been looking at the temp probabilty from the cpc that we will remaim below temps thru 27th of this month that we will have temprature swings for the next two weeks.

 

Their maps suggest a zonal flow across the country with a blend of Canadian air bleeding down. I figure will be around -5° for a departure this month, once we're at the end.

[Money]

Their maps suggest a zonal flow across the country with a blend of Canadian air bleeding down. I figure will be around -5° for a departure this month, once we're at the end.

 

What happened to your prediction of spring starting this week? 

[Geos]

Up to 42! Might get above guidance, which is 44..

 

Nice to see downtown Dubuque at 49° right now.

 

Even low 40s over the heavier snow covered areas NW of you.

[tim the weatherman]

Their maps suggest a zonal flow across the country with a blend of Canadian air bleeding down. I figure will be around -5° for a departure this month, once we're at the end.

i agree geos that we are battling air mass between cold to the north and warm to the south and looking at the snow depth in canada that they have a good snowpack.

[Geos]

What happened to your prediction of spring starting this week? 

 

Doesn't feel like spring exactly, but it's starting to look like it now with dwindling snow cover and bodies of water opening up.

 

7 day is cool, but nothing too extreme in my book. 

[East Dubzz]

Nice to see downtown Dubuque at 49° right now.

 

Even low 40s over the heavier snow covered areas NW of you.

Feels awesome out!!

[Jaycee]

70 here! Bout to go run outside again too nice so i skipped class.. lol whoops

[DominicR]

GFS not to far from EURO. Think northern camp will be case with this one.

[midwest buildit]

only 33 here so far. wind chill at 23,  a decent amount of snow still in the trees. this last snow was very wet and it got down to 10 or so last night. stuff froze solid.

[East Dubzz]

Just got a run in outside, that felt great. Honestly, kind of reminds me of football weather..

[Geos]

Around 35° right now with steady SW winds. Grid forecast has the temps rising all night - should be near 42° by sunrise.

[tim the weatherman]

there is a potential for a weak system between march 22 and 26 for the us and the pna is going back positve so that means we could be cold by that time period for the midwest and the ohio valley by the polar vortex by the weather centre.

[gosaints]

What happened to your prediction of spring starting this week?

 

They nonhuman snowhole

[Geos]

there is a potential for a weak system between march 22 and 26 for the us and the pna is going back positve so that means we could be cold by that time period for the midwest and the ohio valley by the polar vortex by the weather centre.

 

GFS has a couple good rain systems for us after the 20th. East Coast does have one snowstorm on the table. I think will be near the battle zone, but with the AO +, storm system will try to pull up mild air into the Midwest.

[tim the weatherman]

GFS has a couple good rain systems for us after the 20th. East Coast does have one snowstorm on the table. 

i think the weather centre is nothing but nonsense on this one that i think that the pna remains negative thru next week on beyond that it is impossible to have the polar vortex to make a comeback by the positve ao that  will remains

[Tom]

00z NAM...who ordered snow on St. Patty's Day weekend????  Something to watch...

[tim the weatherman]

between the 26 and 31st of this month that we will have multiple potenially sigificant snowstorms for the midwest ohio valley mid atlantic and newengland by the weather centre because the -pna and a piece of the polar vortex.

[Geos]

between the 26 and 31st of this month that we will have multiple potenially sigificant snowstorms for the midwest ohio valley mid atlantic and newengland by the weather centre because the -pna and a piece of the polar vortex.

 

With a -PNA I would expect Upper Midwest, Northern Plains and New England more so. 

 

Fwiw: Ramsey is siding with rain next Tuesday as the low cuts up the Mississippi River Valley and WI. Looked like some snow in the cold sector.

[tim the weatherman]

-pna means a trough in the west and a ridge in the east and a +pna means a ridge in the west and a trough in the east.

[Geos]

-pna means a trough in the west and a ridge in the east and a +pna means a ridge in the west and a trough in the east.

 

I think in this case, the cold air would press down somewhat in the northern tier of states, but it could give way if a low is strong enough to push it forward/north.

[Tom]

Just looking at the 00z NAM, the system on Sat/Sun is so close to becoming a bigger event in the Midwest/Lower Lakes.  Wouldn't take much to see those 2 separate pieces of energy to phase together earlier and become a much larger system.

[tim the weatherman]

Just looking at the 00z NAM, the system on Sat/Sun is so close to becoming a bigger event in the Midwest/Lower Lakes.  Wouldn't take much to see those 2 separate pieces of energy to phase together earlier and become a much larger system.

according to my forecast that there is no big snowstorms for this weekend.

[Madtown]

new nam 7" for here this weekend?????? local met going with snow sat night and sunday

[midwest buildit]

I figured out a code.

 

If you replace the word "that",  in the24weatherman's posts that doesn't fit into the sentence, with a "." - his posts are more readable and make a little more sense.

 

Example below...works with most but not all.

 

 

according to my forecast that there is no big snowstorms for this weekend.

According to my forecast(.)  There is no big snowstorms for this weekend.

 

 

[Geos]

He's probably texting the posts in MW Built it.

The periods would help though in some cases.

 

Right now I have a 20% of snow this weekend.

[Money]

GFS is a bit south/colder for next week. Takes the low to Chicago. 

[Money]

Gonna have to wait for tom on this, but it looks like the GGEM is a solid hit for N. IL

[Tom]

Just was going to say that, GFS does take it much farther south from previous runs.  Let's see if the EURO corrects south.  I'll post GGEM maps when they are up.

 

No more back to back 50's  next week like they were showing 2 days ago.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

[Money]

early every ggem ensemble has a storm btw in the midwest whether it would be a cutter through WI/IL or a clipper.

[Money]

euro looks a bit south and colder as well.

[gosaints]

Long range really isn't that cold.  Roller coaster but nothing to extreme.

[Geos]

Today is going to warm big time. Already 44° here in Racine. 

 

NAM cut snowfall in half this weekend here. Now barely 3".

[gosaints]

ya gonna be a great day.  Next week is looking a little ominous for a big dog around here, but think it could be a whiff to the north.  we have had some monsters around here during this time of the year

[Geos]

Right now the 6z GFS is mainly rain here for next week, but the heavier snow is close.

 

[james1976]

not liking the sharp cutoff on that GFS.