March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[East Dubzz]

45 here in Rock Island. Feels nice.

[FiNsTa]

For those who have written off winter already, you must be mistaken by the recent days of mild weather.  I don't see winter completely over just yet.  The active storm train in east Asia and the active part of the LRC will begin to cycle Week 1-2 and beyond.  CPC agrees along with the global models we still have a lot on the table for our region.  Above normal precip and much below normal temps are in the forecast in the 8-14 Day range.

Of course, those maps are ALWAYS 100% accurate...

[Tom]

FiNsTa, I find it comical that you still believe it will be warm or above normal towards the end of month when there are clear indications of the complete opposite.  If you take the time to study weather patterns and/or cycles maybe you can see what some of us have pointed out weeks ago and not just base it on one model run to the next.  I spoke out loud and made this assessment weeks ago and of course I will use supporting evidence that my prediction will start showing up in the models. 

 

So, if it snows here in Chicago towards the end of the month and even in April, I want you to remember who said the "what" before the "now".

[Geos]

EURO is snowy in the upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains.

 

If the snow pack the majority of the snow pack is lost south of the border, then the long range cold shot will be moderated and won't be able to stay long without blocking in place.

[james1976]

impressive maps, Tom. long range models look interesting. lets hope for the best.

light snow over here for the past while. just starting to stick a bit. was 40 earlier, down to 29 now.

[james1976]

moderate snow now with big flakes.

[Tom]

March roared in like a Lion, will leave like a Lion...some with a fresh layer of snow to remind you who is in control.

[Geos]

Looks like the snow returns will sink south before anything actually makes it to the ground.

 

High 37° today.

[james1976]

1" so far. wasnt expecting that.

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles...Day 8-15 look brutal for late March.  Looks like record breaking cold may be on the way, something I pointed out weeks ago.  The resurgence of the Polar Vortex is appearing in Canada.

[james1976]

GFS is starting to be more consistent about colder air to end the month.

[james1976]

Looking active too with a parade of systems. Be nice if this storm would verify.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Tom]

Ditto James, it's not a coincidence that models are trending colder.  If you know the reasoning behind it, then you can predict the future with accuracy.  Now let's see if we can break some snow records...

[james1976]

1.3" now. a report of 3" bout half hour east of me.

[james1976]

i wonder what waterloo has. they gotta be eating away at that 3.6" they need for the record.

[Geos]

So far that cold outbreak is in fantasy land. About anything could happen the last week of March.

 

Was looking at sounding for that 28th system and they would suggest a big icing event along the I-80/88 corridor.

[gosaints]

Winter not done here but will.be breaks in between. Chicago gonna have to thread the needle for a real storm. Can have our leftovers

[midwest buildit]

No ice please. Lol. So my birthday is on the 31. What are the chances ill have to work that day. Plowing wise.

[Geos]

No ice please. Lol. So my birthday is on the 31. What are the chances ill have to work that day. Plowing wise.

 

Icing events this late in the season (especially day) are rare, so I wouldn't worry too much!

[tim the weatherman]

So far that cold outbreak is in fantasy land. About anything could happen the last week of March.

 

Was looking at sounding for that 28th system and they would suggest a big icing event along the I-80/88 corridor.

my forecast does not has any colder air in the forecast and the cold outbreak is in fantasy land and i think that noaa is wrong about that too and i don't think that we will not get that ice storm too and i looked at a good article at accuweather website and they said that from now to the first part of april that we could have this same pattren because of a southward dip in the jet stream plus we could be looking at temprature swings from now to the end of the month.

[Geos]

my forecast does not has any colder air in the forecast and the cold outbreak is in fantasy land and i think that noaa is wrong about that too and i don't think that we will not get that ice storm too and i looked at a good article at accuweather website and they said that from now to the first part of april that we could have this same pattren because of a southward dip in the jet stream.

 

I don't think it's necessarily wrong about bringing down a high. The intensity and placement is in question though. This week does look pretty tame/normal for mid-March.

 

In April the coldest days will likely be in the 40s, which will likely be in the 50s and low 60s the rest of the time. (first half)

[East Dubzz]

Icing events this late in the season (especially day) are rare, so I wouldn't worry too much!

They are? I would guess they were more likely to happen then because of warmer air possibly mixing in.

[Geos]

They are? I would guess they were more likely to happen then because of warmer air possibly mixing in.

 

Edit: At this latitude. Warmer ground temps and higher sun angle really cuts down on that risk. It's even more rare to get a icing event near the lake, because easterly or southeast winds pull in the marine air. That wind direction is common with WWA in those types of setups depicted on the GFS.

 

Edit: It seems like the GFS is extra slow coming out tonight.

[Money]

I would disagree, and say icing events are def. not rare in March.

 

April/May yeah, but def. not March.

[FiNsTa]

FiNsTa, I find it comical that you still believe it will be warm or above normal towards the end of month when there are clear indications of the complete opposite.  If you take the time to study weather patterns and/or cycles maybe you can see what some of us have pointed out weeks ago and not just base it on one model run to the next.  I spoke out loud and made this assessment weeks ago and of course I will use supporting evidence that my prediction will start showing up in the models. 

 

So, if it snows here in Chicago towards the end of the month and even in April, I want you to remember who said the "what" before the "now".

Nice, glad i'm entertaining you. However, I also found it comical when you thought that achieving the 100" mark by the end of the month was a sincere possibility. 

[Money]

GGEM/UKMET are completely different from NAM/GFS.

 

Stunning for being 60-72 hours out.

[Tom]

If you read my comment correctly, I said ORD has an excellent chance at breaking the record this month.  Regarding reaching 100", I said it wouldn't "surprise" me IF everything lined up just right.  We still have 15 days remaining this month and chances are we will see some more snow with the cold coming at the end of the month.

[Money]

Not that it matters because it's still too warm, but the EURO is similar to the GGEM/UKIE as well. Takes it farther south and a completely different track than nam/gfs

[East Dubzz]

Hear the birds chirping outside... Clearly, although it snowed over an inch last night, spring is here

[Hawkeye]

4.0-5.5" of snow fell in parts of far southeast Iowa overnight.  Radar showed scattered heavy pockets moving across that area.  To get that much snow it must have come down at 2-3"/hr at times.

 

I only picked up 0.5".

[NEJeremy]

Remember everyone winter is done TODAY as it is the 16th!!!   Good thing we got in the last snow(.5") of the season here last night before the seasons switch today

[Geos]

Today's windy cold weather sucks, but it'll get better as the week goes on. Few LES flurries, but no synoptic snow last night.

 

Wind is turning more easterly, which should allow for more sun later.

[Tom]

Feels like the dead of winter our there today.  Temps in upper 10's with a howling wind off the lake.  Noticing there are scattered LES flurries in NE IL and MKE has some bands coming off the lake.

[East Dubzz]

Not an ideal day here in Rock Island, but it doesn't feel too bad out there. Little too windy for my liking.

[Tom]

Both GGEM/EURO showing major late season arctic blast heading down from Canada by early next week.  CFS agrees that the last 8-10 days of March will end up much below normal.  Trending even colder.  00z Euro has highs forecasted to be in the upper 10's/low 20's in NE/IA next Tuesday. 

 

GFS/EURO showing a dropping AO and near neutral NAO.  The pattern is cycling and winter will flex its muscles once again.

 

Ouch!

[tim the weatherman]

according to my forecast that i have lower 40's and not the artic that tom is saying.

[Money]

GFS agrees. It has temps in the 20's for opening day on the 31st, and lows below zero in Minnesota/N. WI

[Tom]

@ theweatherman, it's because most websites use the GFS model to make forecasts. 

[Tom]

Mother nature won't be playing tricks on me for April Fool's Day!  Haha

[Tom]

If anyone does any trading/day trading, I would imagine Natural Gas would be a very good play by the end of this week to get in on it before the arctic blast.  Nat Gas will surge end of month.  I could see it trading above $5 by end of month.