March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[East Dubzz]

Wow. Pretty amazing with snow on the ground.

This source says the DBQ has 4". Is that about right for the area in general?

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?units=0&region=us&station=KDBQ&ey=2014&em=3&ed=14&eh=0

 

I planted some sod in October and it was exposed today and I couldn't believe it when I got home - it was still mostly green!

That seems about right on in general. A little more at my house because I get a lot of shade, but 4" seems about right.

[Geos]

Dewpoints creeping higher as the night goes on. Will be interesting to see the scene come morning.

[Tom]

I can't wait to see what people will be saying when there will be major snowstorms showing up in late March into early April from the Plains into the Lakes.  This is when the LRC begins its 4-6 week period of very active weather and IMO "All systems a Go" for some major late season cold during this period.  Spring is a very volatile month and winter will not go away very easily this year.

[Geos]

On the verge of 50% snow cover in the yard and neighborhood now. Near 42° all night melted another 10% or so. 

[gosaints]

GFS not nearly as cold in the long run

[East Dubzz]

Hmmm... High of 44 here today, didn't know it was supposed to do that.

[FiNsTa]

I can't wait to see what people will be saying when there will be major snowstorms showing up in late March into early April from the Plains into the Lakes.  This is when the LRC begins its 4-6 week period of very active weather and IMO "All systems a Go" for some major late season cold during this period.  Spring is a very volatile month and winter will not go away very easily this year.

Tom hyping up the cold and snow as usual.

[Geos]

Hmmm... High of 44 here today, didn't know it was supposed to do that.

 

Over performing here as well. Been as high as 47°. The sun even made an appearance.

[Tom]

We'll see FiNs Ta...this year has been the year of the cold.  I'm not hyping, I've done my research.  Take notes.  This will probably be the last true punch Ol' Man Winter gives this year.

[Tom]

The Big 3 are my reasoning to my predictions:

 

1) LRC

 

2) East Asian Correlation

 

3) Strat Warming

[tim the weatherman]

finsta is right you don't get major snowstorms heading into april and this is all nothing but hype and we do not get artic blasts heading into april too and i just heard from accuweather's henry margusity that late march heading into april will be warm.

[Tom]

@ the24weatherman, I do recall you making a friendly bet with me that by the 16-18th we would be basking in Spring time weather, right???  12z Euro/GGEM painting a cold and snowy picture early next week.  Complete opposite of what you were predicting and I was very confident models would trend colder and look what is happening now.  Late season arctic air takes control early next week if you like it or not.

 

BTW, would you like to place another friendly bet that by late March into early April winter returns with a Vengeance???  This will most likely be the last wintry push we see this winter.  

[james1976]

finsta is right you don't get major snowstorms heading into april and this is all nothing but hype and we do not get artic blasts heading into april too and i just heard from accuweather's henry margusity that late march heading into april will be warm.

BS brother....last year i had 9" of snow MAY 2nd. You never know what will happen. I don't think we're done with snow yet this winter.

and btw...accuweather sucks so that's a bit laughable

[Geos]

I have to say this latitude does not get Arctic air blasts and major snowstorms the first week of April (if it would it would be like a once in 50 year event). Sun angle and warmer ground goes against big totals. Biggest snowfall I've seeen or heard of in the area is about 6" within the first 5 days of the month and it was gone within 36 hours.

 

Sure early next week looks chilly, but expect that to be it for highs in the any lower than the upper 20s.

[Tom]

I respect that Geo's, and I will also mention that late season arctic blasts will not necessarily mean single digit/teen high temps.  It's obvious that will most likely not happen, however, low 20's at the end of March is still very cold and much below normal.  This is certainly on the table this year.  The winter of 2013-14 is anything BUT ordinary.  So expect the unexpected as winter continues to roll on.  Sometime in April we will see things bounce back but not until one last shot of winter late month.

[Tom]

FYI, 2 of the biggest snow storms that hit in March were:

 

March 25-26, 1930 19.2"

 

March 25-26, 1970 14.3"

[Geos]

Like Midwest build it was saying about the late wet snow helping the grass. I could go for one in April. Usually those plaster the trees nicely. A scene I have kind of missed since last February.

 

April snows have been hard to come by here in the last decade.

[midwest buildit]

how im starting to feel.

 

)

[Geos]

Lol^ very fitting MW Built it!

 

Today marks the end of snow cover. A lot more snow melted off today. 

 

It ran 93 days or 13.2 weeks!

 

Some pictures within 5 miles of here.

 

One of the barest fields I passed by.

 

 

Little more typical view of most agricultural lands.

 

__ 

 

View of the west side of my yard that has the biggest bare area.

 

 

Snowiest corner of my yard is actually in the open. Go figure...

 

[Money]

Nice snowstorm on the GGEM at HR 144-156.

 

Tom, any maps by any chance?

[Tom]

Not yet Money, Wx Bell is slow loading...

[Money]

Thanks. Looking at precip maps, it looks like a chicago-mke big hit. Strong, slow system, and temps plenty cold enough by the looks of the map

[Tom]

00z GGEM goes nuclear on snow totals...probably as over done as last night's 00z NAM model...ha!

[Money]

How did the 12z euro look?

[Tom]

12z Euro had about the same track but much weaker...a general 3-6" snowfall.  You just never know with these Clippers that round the base of the trough.  If you can get them to slow and dig they can produce significant snowfall.

 

 

BTW, GFS and GGEM/EURO are worlds apart for temps next week.  00z GGEM keeps it very cold for March standards through next week similar to what the 12z Euro showed today.

[Money]

0z euro hr 144

 

991.6 in SD. Very similar to the GGEM through HR 144 track wise.

[Tom]

I find it very amusing how bad the GFS can be sometimes in the mid/long range.  Both GGEM/EURO have temps in N IL in the upper 20's next Tuesday with snow and GFS has a ridge building with temps in upper 40's.

 

00z Euro on the same track for next weeks Clipper and brings our region widespread snowfall.  One of the more interesting runs I've seen from a hybrid Clipper that develops into a lower lakes cutter.  Huge hit southern 1/2 of WI...E IA also gets in on some good snow.  Euro really explodes this system as hit heads NE out of S MO into N IN.

 

This will probably be our next system to track.  Don't pack your snow blowers/shovels just yet....winter keeps on Marching on....

 

 

[Money]

18 inch storm 192 hrs out.

 

lock it in.

[Tom]

GGEM/EURO vs GFS on this next storm...but I think the GFS showed this system a few days back dumping 2 Feet in N IL...hahaha.  I can see another week of model watching with this one.

[Money]

GGEM/EURO vs GFS on this next storm...but I think the GFS showed this system a few days back dumping 2 Feet in N IL...hahaha.  I can see another week of model watching with this one.

 

Yeah, GFS had it a couple days ago then it lost it and now has a more northern stream type system (strong low up towards the UP) 

 

Could be it's usually losing a storm in the medium range type of bias, but we'll see.

[Money]

Actually, instant weather maps has all the recent runs from the last 7 days or so. 

 

3/9 0z had 20-24 in N. IL 

[Tom]

Looking out towards Day 9-10 Global models are changing the picture in the NE Pacific and the persistent High Pressure all winter long will take up residence and start driving the colder air into the lower 48 right around March 21-22nd (just after the Spring equinox).  GFS long range not impressive NOW with the cold BUT that will change in time and dig the trough deeper into the lower 48.  It's going to be a wild finish to the month and winter's last hurrah unleashes its fury.  We may be saying hello to the late season version of the Polar Vortex towards the end of the month.

[Tony]

+1 Tom...just finished listening to JB at WxBell and he agrees that its going to be a wild finish to this winter and also mentions the upcoming snowstorms shown on the Euro and GGEM. He says that the GFS is out to lunch as it holds energy back as it did for this current storm but will finally come back into line with the rest of the models and don't be surprised to see the Euro lose this storm as it has had this problem all winter long. Bottom line is we still have the opportunity to break the record here within the next week or so with what is showing up on the models. This winter just does not want to go away but when it finally does it will probably be with a Monster Storm!

[East Dubzz]

Looking out towards Day 9-10 Global models are changing the picture in the NE Pacific and the persistent High Pressure all winter long will take up residence and start driving the colder air into the lower 48 right around March 21-22nd (just after the Spring equinox). GFS long range not impressive NOW with the cold BUT that will change in time and dig the trough deeper into the lower 48. It's going to be a wild finish to the month and winter's last hurrah unleashes its fury. We may be saying hello to the late season version of the Polar Vortex towards the end of the month.

Just what we want, more blocking!

[East Dubzz]

DVN leaning more towards the Euro/GGEM with a deepening trough digging into the area and a possibly "significant" storm..

[NEJeremy]

and all of it is east of Nebraska....AGAIN!! I'll tell you what, I've never been as big of a believer in the LRC as I have been this year. We haven't been hit by anything this year and that's what keeps on repeating. People here have said, you guys will get your big storm in February when the jet gets more active, nothing happened. Then I heard March and so far nothing either. The LRC says nothing for us continuing so why would anything change?! Earlier this week, today was supposed to only be 40 and now its up to 50. The high for Thursday was in the 50s but now we're supposed to be in the mid 60s. The next week is really supposed to be pretty warm with highs over 50 pretty much everyday. At least over here our winter may be done, but it never really started(at least snow wise) as of course we have had a lot of cold

[Money]

12z gfs still not playing ball with the tue storm.

[james1976]

nice to see DVN talking about it.

[james1976]

from DMX:

ANOTHER WARM UP IS THEN  EXPECTED FOR NEXT MONDAY...BUT THEREAFTER THE 500 MB FLOW GOES  CLOSER TO ZONAL AND THINGS MAY GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN BEYOND THE  END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.  

[Money]

ggem slow to come out.