March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Sciascia]

just found out that next winter will have above temps and below normal snowfall and precip.

Bold statement this far out. Let's wait & see. I remember hearing this winter was going to be an average winter a month before it came, and it has been anything but average. Next winter will be easier than this winter, but let's take a breath on how things shape up. Could be right, could be wrong, could be anything.

[Geos]

just found out that next winter will have above temps and below normal snowfall and precip.

 

I am hearing El Niño, I will say that much.

 

Up to 46° and it's only 10:20am.

[NEJeremy]

just found out that next winter will have above temps and below normal snowfall and precip.

Lol! Who did you find this out from? Can I have the prediction on who's winning the world series too this year?!

 

Unbelievable....

[Sciascia]

Also, just want to put my two cents out here:

 

It feels like the board has become a bit...aggravated the past week or so. And I know why and understand it, but all of us are weather enthusiasts around here. And as enthusiasts, we should know that weather is going to do whatever weather wants to do. I think the biggest problems stem from people saying what *will* happen rather than what *could* happen.

 

It *could* be the end of wintry conditions next week.

Winter-esque conditions *could* continue into April.

 

Weather has almost no definites, just millions of possibilities.

[tim the weatherman]

I am hearing El Niño, I will say that much.

 

Up to 46° and it's only 10:20am.

right now geos that noaa has an elnino watch up for development into an el nino.

[East Dubzz]

I have been hearing about a potential El Niño and I really hope that doesn't develop. While this winter pushed my limits because of the cold, I love me a good winter and some good snowfalls.

[Geos]

I have been hearing about a potential El Niño and I really hope that doesn't develop. While this winter pushed my limits because of the cold, I love me a good winter and some good snowfalls.

 

You still can, as long as it isn't like 97-98. You can get good juiced up storms during moderate El Niño's.

 

Just hit 50° here where I work in Racine.

[Tom]

If we continue to have the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific then I'd say we would see more brutal cold next winter.  However, it may be hampered a bit due to the possible El Nino forming.  With an active southern jet, this will fuel bigger storms all together.  Another culprit will be if we see a -NAO unlike this year were it has been non existent.

[Money]

GFS same ole story in the long run. Cold, then a big cutter at the end of the run (cuts to Minny) yet temps only get to about 35-40 in MKE/ORD

[tim the weatherman]

If we continue to have the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific then I'd say we would see more brutal cold next winter.  However, it may be hampered a bit due to the possible El Nino forming.  With an active southern jet, this will fuel bigger storms all together.  Another culprit will be if we see a -NAO unlike this year were it has been non existent.

you are right tom

[Money]

Temps from the 16th on ending at 0z.

 

3-16:

 

MKE: 20-25

ORD: 25-30

 

 

3-17:

 

MKE: 15-20

ORD: 20

 

3-18: 

 

MKE: 30

ORD: 30-35

 

3-19:

 

MKE: 15-20

ORD: 20-25

 

3-20:

 

MKE: 20-25

ORD: 25-30

 

3-21: 

 

MKE: 20-25

ORD: 25-30

 

3-22:

 

MKE: 25-30

ORD: 25-30

 

3-23: 

 

MKE: 30-35

ORD: 30-35

 

Certainly doesn't look like spring to me.

[Geos]

The GFS and other models are not handling the temperatures well at all over the snow pack areas today. Probably safe to assume the 12z GFS will host temps 5-10° higher than what it is showing, especially on days when the sun is out or mostly out.

[tim the weatherman]

Temps from the 16th on ending at 0z.

 

3-16:

 

MKE: 20-25

ORD: 25-30

 

 

3-17:

 

MKE: 15-20

ORD: 20

 

3-18: 

 

MKE: 30

ORD: 30-35

 

3-19:

 

MKE: 15-20

ORD: 20-25

 

3-20:

 

MKE: 20-25

ORD: 25-30

 

3-21: 

 

MKE: 20-25

ORD: 25-30

 

3-22:

 

MKE: 25-30

ORD: 25-30

 

3-23: 

 

MKE: 30-35

ORD: 30-35

 

Certainly doesn't look like spring to me.

not the what i am looking at

[Jaycee]

The GFS and other models are not handling the temperatures well at all over the snow pack areas today. Probably safe to assume the 12z GFS will host temps 5-10° higher than what it is showing, especially on days when the sun is out or mostly out.

Hey Geos, I figured you'd be the best person to ask this. What analog year would you compare this winter to? I'm still kind of a rookie when it comes to reading El Nino/La Nina, but from what I've heard going into Spring this year is most comparable to 2007-2008. That's just what I've read from other sources, not sure about the credibility though lol. If that's true though, 2008 was the biggest severe weather year in Nebraska I can remember, so that'd be sick!

[Geos]

Hey Geos, I figured you'd be the best person to ask this. What analog year would you compare this winter to? I'm still kind of a rookie when it comes to reading El Nino/La Nina, but from what I've heard going into Spring this year is most comparable to 2007-2008. That's just what I've read from other sources, not sure about the credibility though lol. If that's true though, 2008 was the biggest severe weather year in Nebraska I can remember, so that'd be sick!

 

I'll have to dig through that when I get home later tonight. I've heard 78-79 and 93-94 thrown around though.

[Money]

The GFS and other models are not handling the temperatures well at all over the snow pack areas today. Probably safe to assume the 12z GFS will host temps 5-10° higher than what it is showing, especially on days when the sun is out or mostly out.

 

Average high towards the end of March is nearly 50 degrees. Even if the GFS is 5-10 degrees too cold, it's going to below normal for that time period. GGEM is the same way and even brings in colder temps during that period. Parts of Chicago still has 10+ inches of snowpack and they could be seeing at least a couple more inches of snow by Wed. 

[Jaycee]

75 here today  time to go for a run outside!

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014031005_National.jpg

[tim the weatherman]

just steppd outside and it it so nice that the current snowpack is being eaten into.

[IowaHawkeyes]

LOL

[Geos]

75 here today  time to go for a run outside!

 

I feel like doing that after work, especially seeing people out there right now jogging! 52° currently.

[Tom]

I think today will be a good day to finally take down the Christmas lights.  The latest I have ever done that since I have been putting them up as a kid.  Thinking of heading to AZ next week sometime and by then it will most likely be cold and snowy again.

[Tom]

Euro trying to do some interesting things with the Clipper next Sun/Mon as it rounds the southern edge of the trough.  Could be another big system in the region early next week.  Next week looks much colder as well.  Some subzero lows showing up Sunday night in N WI.

[Jaycee]

I think today will be a good day to finally take down the Christmas lights.  The latest I have ever done that since I have been putting them up as a kid.  Thinking of heading to AZ next week sometime and by then it will most likely be cold and snowy again.

Take me with you! haha arizona is the best. Last time I was in Arizona there was a heavy downpour for about 30 minutes, and omg, talk about the most beatiful place ever! It's amazing seeing the desert after a rain, especially looking at all the rock formations with all the dust off of them.

[Tom]

+1 Nebraska, AZ is a fun and beautiful place to visit, especially Scottsdale.  The weather right now is in the upper 70's/low 80's.  I'm probably going to stay there thru mid/late April.

[East Dubzz]

Contrary to the Dubuque Regional airport, it's in the low 50s in downtown dubuque and 51 in East Dubuque. Just feels great!!

[Geos]

Haven't been to AZ yet, but it's definitely on my list of travel to destinations. I know several people out there, yet I haven't seen it yet.

 

Hanging around 53-54° right now back home. About the same in Racine. The snow has completely melted away outside the window and has exposed a thin layer of pure ice underneath.

[tim the weatherman]

the long range gfs model is indicating that bitter cold is expected for the rest of march.

[Geos]

the long range gfs model is indicating that bitter cold is expected for the rest of march.

 

Looks like a bunch of 30s in the extended to me. Of course in late March that is bitter. haha

 

Edit: 54° now.

[tim the weatherman]

Looks like a bunch of 30s in the extended to me. Of course in late March that is bitter haha.

models always change overnight and that was from henry margustiy from accuweather said that 3 days ago.

[midwest buildit]

So you posted three day old info? Why bother and then say things change overnight.

 

models always change overnight and that was from henry margustiy from accuweather said that 3 days ago.

[tim the weatherman]

DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE WAY FOR BRIEF UPPER LEVEL

RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BACKING

WINDS/WAA WILL SPREAD WARMER TEMPS ALOFT OVER THE REGION AS

SOUTHERLY WINDS...OUT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT

SURFACE LOW...USHER IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE RATHER BRIEF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP EAST/SOUTHEAST AND SWING

A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME

SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE INITIAL EXTENT OF THIS COLDER AIR...BUT

OVERALL A COLDER TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY

NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BACK IN PLACE.
 

PRECIP CHANCES TO START THE PERIOD ARE MARGINAL WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT

LIKELY TO REMAIN MINOR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLDER AIR...MODEL

VARIABILITY SHOWS ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE AT

PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD LOW. NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR

AS IF THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY

NIGHT...OF WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW.

 

[FiNsTa]

the long range gfs model is indicating that bitter cold is expected for the rest of march.

So first you say that winter will end by the 16th. Now you're saying that it will be cold for the rest of the month..??? Make up your mind?

[Geos]

So first you say that winter will end by the 16th. Now you're saying that it will be cold for the rest of the month..??? Make up your mind?

 

I think he's saying it will be colder than normal, but not necessarily feel like winter. 

 

To anyone on the board, if you do take information from someone else, apart from your opinion - quote it. That always helps clear up any confusion about who heard what and when and so forth.

[tim the weatherman]

I think he's saying it will be colder than normal, but not necessarily feel like winter. 

 

To anyone on the board, if you do take information from someone else, apart from your opinion - quote it. That always helps clear up any confusion about who heard what and when and so forth.

the gfs is indicating bitter cold for march i heard this by henry margusity from accuweather from today by a video he made about this week's storm a few day's ago but this is one model that is saying this.

[The Snowman]

after next week is when spring will arrived because looked at the pna and nao and the pna next tuesday will be negative and the nao will be slightly negative for 3 days next week.

EPO and WPO will still be negative...

[Tom]

I'm really concerned the last week of March and into the 1st week of April may bring some record breaking late season cold.  Opening day for baseball is going to be brutal for a lot of major cities.

[Geos]

Lost a lot of snow today in the area. Some areas have lost snow cover completely; like agricultural land, while shaded forested areas are hanging around 80% coverage. Today will be the final day I think of snow cover. My yard and surrounding yards are about 60% covered now as I type this with another 20% or so down to about 2" with grass showing through.

 

Just cracked the a few windows open for a bit to let some of the funk out of the house.

 

53° for the high.

[East Dubzz]

Got up to 56 in East Dubuque today, and 57 in downtown Dubuque...wowzers!

[Geos]

Got up to 56 in East Dubuque today, and 57 in downtown Dubuque...wowzers!

 

Wow. Pretty amazing with snow on the ground.

This source says the DBQ has 4". Is that about right for the area in general?

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?units=0&region=us&station=KDBQ&ey=2014&em=3&ed=14&eh=0

 

I planted some sod in October and it was exposed today and I couldn't believe it when I got home - it was still mostly green!