March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Money]

lol

 

6z GFS: 14-16 for here

12z GFS: 0

 

North/weaker/warmer

[gosaints]

Tis the season to favor north and west.  not seeing the ridic cold talk that we were bombarded with that last week....

[Money]

Tis the season to favor north and west.  not seeing the ridic cold talk that we were bombarded with that last week....

 

It was always towards the 20th and on when the models were generally really cold.

 

The average high temp should be 45-50 by right now. So yeah, when you get highs 30-35 that's "cold" for this time of the year.

[Money]

GGEM looks good for C/N WI and maybe even southern WI (hard to tell on B/W maps)

 

HR 84: 992 C. NEB

HR 96: 995 S. IA

HR 108: S. tip of LM

[Geos]

GFS is loosing the snow for the weekend system. Has a dusting only now to an inch north of I-80.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

 

@ Go Saints - Winter is running out of gas.

 

GGEM shifting 18-19th system north.

 

[gosaints]

Money seasonaly cold sure but that's not what was being talked about

[Money]

You guys were talking about spring and warm temps. 30-35 is very cold for this time of the year.

 

Anyways, GGEM is a good hit here.

[gosaints]

GFS doesn't really have anything below -10 850's until way out in la la land

[gosaints]

30-35 very cold if that is your definition cool.  I never hammered on warm up only more seasonal. Exactly what we have today.  If it wasn't for our glacier today would be above average

[gosaints]

la crosse to green bay special on the GGEM

[tim the weatherman]

GFS is loosing the snow for the weekend system. Has a dusting only now to an inch north of I-80.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

 

@ Go Saints - Winter is running out of gas.

 

GGEM shifting 18-19th system north.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014031412/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_23.png

looking at my forecast that they have 40 50 and 60s in my forecast so old man winter like you said geos is running out of gas.

[Money]

Ukie is a bit NW of GGEM.

[Tom]

It was only 2 years ago today when ORD established a record high of 81F and began the record warm streak that kicked off Summer early.

[Money]

euro is nw from yesterday as well.

 

Not looking good for our areas although we're still 4 days out.

[FiNsTa]

euro is nw from yesterday as well.

 

Not looking good for our areas although we're still 4 days out.

Do we really want anymore snow at this point?

[tim the weatherman]

It was only 2 years ago today when ORD established a record high of 81F and began the record warm streak that kicked off Summer early.

i agree tom that march was so warm that year and accuweather had their winter forecast that chicago was going to getting to hit hard that they said that after the winter people were going to move after that.

[Tom]

Yup, I remember that accuweather prediction.  They should have predicted that for this winter's forecast!

 

12z Euro hits th_snow's area...

[gosaints]

Looking more and more like a snowpack killer around here instead of a dumping.  Would probably have a large impact of the temps down the line as well

[Money]

MKE AFD

 

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IT LOOKED LIKE THERE WAS MODEL CONTINUITY BUILDING LAST NIGHT
ON THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS HAD THE LOW MOVING OVER
CHICAGO...THE ECMWF OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THE CANADIAN SO FAR
SOUTH WE NEARLY MISSED ALL THE PRECIP...AND THE WPC FORECAST WAS
LARGELY USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND THAT LOOKED LIKE THE GFS.
SO IT LOOKED LIKE A COLDER LOW WITH SNOW WAS GOING TO HIT THE AREA.
NEVER MIND...FOR NOW. FROM THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING...THE GFS
HAS GONE NORTH AND WEST...THE ECMWF HAS GONE FARTHER NORTH AND THE
CANADIAN HAS SHIFTED A ABOUT STATE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT GFS AND
THE ECMWF FROM 12Z THIS MORNING WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH THE
BULK OF ANY SNOW POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE
ALSO BIG TIME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. IN THIS SCENARIO...WE WOULD SEE SOME INITIAL LIGHT
SNOW...TRANSITION OVER THE A MIX...THEN RAIN...THEN BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

MY BIG CONCERN IS HOW COLD THE GREAT LAKES ARE AND IF WE HAPPEN TO
GET INTO A DECENT SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE THE INFLUENTIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTEN UP FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST...CAUSING THE LOW TO GO
FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN... CONFIDENCE ON ANY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW IS LOW. THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...IN
THE PACIFIC. STAY TUNED.

[BrianJK]

It was only 2 years ago today when ORD established a record high of 81F and began the record warm streak that kicked off Summer early.

 

Yep - Shorts and flip flops for the parade that year.

[tim the weatherman]

just looked outside and the warmer just took a good hit by these milder temps that the rate we're going that we might have the snowpack gone by the end of the month and have 2 rain chances this week with warmer temps.

[Geos]

About 51° today.

[East Dubzz]

Lots of snow just completely wiped out...and even my backyard took a huge hit, which doesn't see sun a lot of sun. You can see the ground is not absorbing it either..

[Geos]

Yeah my yard is down to about 25% coverage now. Big hit today. I saw entire yards snow free in Kenosha outside of piles. Running water all over the place.

 

Noticed this today and I thought it was worth mentioning here...

You know it's been a long winter when you see a guy shoveling snow off his yard and onto the sun warmed concrete of his driveway in order to get it to melt faster!  

[gosaints]

If you go back in this thread we had people talking below zero lows and single digit highs

[james1976]

mighty quiet in here when storms disappear from models.

[Geos]

Not impacting a wide area, but it looks like the Ohio Valley, southern Iowa, and MO get some snow.

 

[midwest buildit]

-40 dewpoint. awesome..

 

http://i.imgur.com/8t96vBD.png

[Geos]

Lol^ 

 

Chiller today, but so far the sun is out! Chances of snow tonight do not look that great.

[Tom]

As we finish off the month of March, Winter's last push looks to take hold sometime in the Day 10 period.  Both CFS/EURO Ensembles are indicating some really cold air for late March standards.  Fits in with the LRC and the Strat Warming that is occurring right now.

 

Hoping ORD can squeeze 1" so we can crack 80" for the season.  If we don't break the all-time record this year, maybe we can do it next year.  However, we still may have a chance this month if the storm track is just right with the cold that is coming late month. 

 

An El Nino is most likely going to develop this summer and carry on through next winter.  No El Nino is ever identical.  In 2009/10, we had an El Nino and the east coast was nicknamed "Snowmagedon" and I do remember the Midwest/Lakes did well with snow that year.  So don't fall for the stereotype that El Nino's are a warm pattern for the eastern U.S.  I do believe next winter will be brutal as well since both the JMA/CFSv2 are forecasting a continuation of the warm waters in the NE Pacific and that will produce ridging near Alaska just like it did this year and usher down continued shots of cold.  With an active southern jet streak, next year may be the year that can fuel some whopper snow storms region wide.

 

 

 

 

[FiNsTa]

k

[james1976]

waterloo just needs 3.6" for all-time record. i hope that atleast will happen.

[Geos]

Besides a chance of snow tonight it looks like rain will be dominant in this area for the next 7 days.

 

That snow to the west just seems to be drying up before it gets east of I-39.

[tim the weatherman]

As we finish off the month of March, Winter's last push looks to take hold sometime in the Day 10 period.  Both CFS/EURO Ensembles are indicating some really cold air for late March standards.  Fits in with the LRC and the Strat Warming that is occurring right now.

 

Hoping ORD can squeeze 1" so we can crack 80" for the season.  If we don't break the all-time record this year, maybe we can do it next year.  However, we still may have a chance this month if the storm track is just right with the cold that is coming late month. 

 

An El Nino is most likely going to develop this summer and carry on through next winter.  No El Nino is ever identical.  In 2009/10, we had an El Nino and the east coast was nicknamed "Snowmagedon" and I do remember the Midwest/Lakes did well with snow that year.  So don't fall for the stereotype that El Nino's are a warm pattern for the eastern U.S.  I do believe next winter will be brutal as well since both the JMA/CFSv2 are forecasting a continuation of the warm waters in the NE Pacific and that will produce ridging near Alaska just like it did this year and usher down continued shots of cold.  With an active southern jet streak, next year may be the year that can fuel some whopper snow storms region wide.

not the way i was looking that the forecast shows 40 50 and 60s in the forecast and that is not cold and these models are wrong because when we head into the rest of the month that we will be warmer than this.

[james1976]

not the way i was looking that the forecast shows 40 50 and 60s in the forecast and that is not cold and these models are wrong because when we head into the rest of the month that we will be warmer than this.

i thought you said recently that it will be cold late in the month??? hmmm

[james1976]

i have a feeling it will be a cool, rainy spring. i can feel it in my bones. lol

[Geos]

i have a feeling it will be a cool, rainy spring. i can feel it in my bones. lol

 

That's the way it is around here usually! That and a fair share of foggy days.

[james1976]

radar shows it snowing here but it's not.

[Money]

euro is cold/snowy in the long run it looks like

[Tom]

For those who have written off winter already, you must be mistaken by the recent days of mild weather.  I don't see winter completely over just yet.  The active storm train in east Asia and the active part of the LRC will begin to cycle Week 1-2 and beyond.  CPC agrees along with the global models we still have a lot on the table for our region.  Above normal precip and much below normal temps are in the forecast in the 8-14 Day range.