Iowawx Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 If models go north again today, we could be on to something. Need about a 30-50 mile shift north for me to be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z nam is out to hour 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 New SREF plumes have a mean of 6.5" at ORD, with several over 10 inches. Just throwing it out there for consumption. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF Plumes: ORD: 6.5OSH: 8.03 (lowest is 5.08. Highest is 11.4)DBQ: 6.73MSN: 7.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF Plumes: ORD: 6.5OSH: 8.03 (lowest is 5.08. Highest is 11.4)DBQ: 6.73MSN: 7.43Thanks Moneybags! Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks Moneybags! Skilling mentioned about north trend to I heard last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Also looks like half the 6z GFS ensemble members bring the .75" liquid line close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 You take out the 3 with less than 2 inches in ORD and the mean jumps to 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 So the dude named Thundersnow on American told me the 6z GFS kept temps in the mid teens around here. That'd be a quality ratio event. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 So the dude named Thundersnow on American told me the 6z GFS kept temps in the mid teens around here. That'd be a quality ratio event.Indeed it does. if you check this out, http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDPA. It shows no temps over 17 degrees or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM with 6-8 from about LSE to Sheboygan and south. About 7-8 for Chicago. 7-8 for DBQ and most of Iowa etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd wave coming way north compared to 6z NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM with 6-8 from about LSE to Sheboygan and south. About 7-8 for Chicago. 7-8 for DBQ and most of Iowa etc. Yeah good hit with 2nd wave for us. 3rd wave prob still be south most of us here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah, but it's a step in the right direction from 0z/06z NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd wave might still be a miss mostly but it's north and D**n N IL/S WI would be sweet spot if 2nd wave slams us to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS gonna win this out. I have a feeling right now S WI/N IL in for surprises in next 24-36hrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even N IA/MI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd wave brings snows up to about Chicago this run (based on the composite reflectivity) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd wave brings snows up to about Chicago this run (based on the composite reflectivity) GFS not really showing the 2nd wave? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS not really showing the 2nd wave? It is. Shows 3-5 from IA to Chicago. About 1-2 in S. WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Then it shows 3-5/4-6 for the 3rd wave. Total of 6-10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ah I c but 2nd wave looks pretty good for most of WI looks like using instantweather maps on 06z GFS. Do you have clownmap for 12z NAM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'll be happy with 2" NWS Green Bay AFD for today and tonight SNOW AMNT AMNT FCST HASN/T GOTTEN ANY MORE CLEAR CUT EITHER. ON ONE HAND...VERY STG BAROCLINIC ZONE WL BE SETTING UP ON THE SW FLANK OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR CURRENTLY ACRS THE RGN. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WL HELP GENERATE STG ISENT LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ATM IS BONE DRY. SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO WORK EWD ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE 00Z RAOBS BACK IN THE PLAINS...SOME OF THE QPFS ON THE MODELS LOOK FLAT OUT UNATTAINABLE. SO TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE MODEST QPF OF THE ECMWF. BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED...THAT SHOULD STILL YIELD SNOWFALLS RANGING FM 1-2 INCHES IN FAR N-C WI...TO 2-4 INCHES OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE HIGHTEST TOTALS WL PROBABLY BE IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE SLY FLOW OFF THE UNFROZEN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN WL ADD MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO AN INDICATION OF A LAKE BAND OVER THE LAKE NOW ON GRR RADAR AND STLT IMAGERY...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THAT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WL POST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR WHERE FCST WL BE FOR 3-5 INCHES Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Most of the snow in WI is from the 1st wave. 2nd wave is south of S. WI. And I do not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM 2-4" here in the grid. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hey guys!what is the timing Saturday? Is it starting in the afternoon? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS: Wave 1: 3-5 from osh up towards GBWave 2: 3-5 from IA NE up to Milwaukee and down in N. IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Wave 3: Looks like a miss for Chicago. South of 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 SE Nebraska goes from 10-12 on 6z GFS to 1-2 on the 12z. Ouch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Congrats N MO/C IL/IN/OH. Another 6-12 inches for them. I can take my 3-5 inches tommorow. I am done with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is getting humorous. GFS has been such an egg with the 3rd wave. Wobbles north then wobbles south then back north and back south...who's got the Vegas odds on 18z going back north? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Congrats N MO/C IL/IN/OH. Another 6-12 inches for them. I can take my 3-5 inches tommorow. I am done with this. This isn't even sampled yet lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Instant maps for GFS still showing 6-8" over here. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Instant maps for GFS still showing 6-8" over here. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 ?Whoops; my bad. I had old link in my browser. Also forgot today was the 28th. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Whoops; my bad. I had old link in my browser. Also forgot today was the 28th. Go on americanwx look at 12hr maps Chicagowx posted of 12z UKMET and let us know how it looks or if u can post them here to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-47563400-1393603130.gif http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-13168000-1393603137.gif http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-57970700-1393603143.gif http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-66916000-1393603150.gif http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-51790300-1393603157.gif I'd say south. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ah crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd estimate the UKMet has about .40 precip here. A solid advisory level event. But again, no sampling yet. Much like food, it's good to have sampling before knowing what's really going on. EDIT: It's getting that time where Tom checks in. Dude's always got some wisdom to share. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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