TT-SEA Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Gorgeous morning... a more robust shortwave last night scoured out the low clouds more effectively than earlier runs showed. Totally sunny and already 58 here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Gorgeous morning... a more robust shortwave last night scoured out the low clouds more effectively than earlier runs showed. Totally sunny and already 58 here. Meanwhile down here after an AMAZING day yesterday we are still stuck in the low clouds after an early season marine push. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 The earlier and stronger crash might be the best thing for Memorial Day weekend which looks absolutely spectacular now on all the models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Looking likely we see our second 70F+ day of the year here this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 No storms in the long range for my area, for now. I hope this isn't a quiet Spring. Last year it was an overly active Spring, and a very dead Summer for convection (had 1 in August... none in July). It must be making up for my 3 years of continuous storms from 2013-2015 and April 2016. I have yet to record my first for the year. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 No storms in the long range for my area, for now. I hope this isn't a quiet Spring. Last year it was an overly active Spring, and a very dead Summer for convection (had 1 in August... none in July). It must be making up for my 3 years of continuous storms from 2013-2015 and April 2016. I have yet to record my first for the year. Meteorological spring is pretty much over, so yes, it's going to be a quiet spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I would say the 12Z ECMWF is perfect looking at the surface details... the only really cool days are Wednesday and Thursday with some showers around and highs in the low 60s. Then its back into the low to mid 70s by Friday already and then 70s and low 80s for the entire holiday weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I would say the 12Z ECMWF is perfect looking at the surface details... the only really cool days are Wednesday and Thursday with some showers around and highs in the low 60s. Then its back into the low to mid 70s by Friday already and then 70s and low 80s for the entire holiday weekend.Warm May. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Warm May.I remember when you were chastising me over the warm-up idea..timing semantics aside. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Huge test for the models over the next few weeks. Both the GEFS and GEPS insist on the MJO making a complete orbit across the Pacific/WHEM, compromising the new ISM anomaly as the wave exits the EHEM to open June. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017052012&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 If this is correct, then instead of a ridge retrogression, a jet extension/ULL will eventually compromise the ridge as the forcing moves into the EPAC/ATL. This is a more prolonged process compared to a retrogression, and will require approximately 10 days to *fully* complete after the EAMT tendency reverses during the Memorial Day weekend. If this is incorrect, and the modeling is conflating the two waves as they're overlapping in the IO (happens frequently), then the MJO will likely degrade into a CCKW and accelerate across the Pacific/WHEM with the dominant wave being the IO/EHEM one, which would likely favor a retrogression scenario rather than a jet extension (initially). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Gorgeous Saturday... and have to water the new plants even with all the rain lately. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I remember when you were chastising me over the warm-up idea..timing semantics aside. Nah, I was always on the "nice/warm" May bandwagon. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Nah, I was always on the "nice/warm" May bandwagon.Yeah, you sure were. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I just wanted to let everyone know I always knew January 2017 would be a cold one regionally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I just wanted to let everyone know I always knew January 2017 would be a cold one regionally.#supersleuth Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 #supersleuthI'm just that good. My secret is that I stick to the facts, unlike SOME people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Yeah, you sure were. I'm not even trying to call you out. Why are you trying to call me out? Go look at my posts in the April thread if you don't believe me. It's not a big deal...WE CAN BOTH BE RIGHT (or wrong). But I was definitely saying back in April that May would be much nicer and warmer. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I just wanted to let everyone know I always knew January 2017 would be a cold one regionally. Tim knew before you. Phil knew before Tim. I knew before Phil. Mark Nelsen knew before you even knew him. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I'm not even trying to call you out. Why are you trying to call me out? Go look at my posts in the April thread if you don't believe me. It's not a big deal...WE CAN BOTH BE RIGHT (or wrong).Easy, I'm just messing with you. If I was actually sore about it, I'd be requoting your posts. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 The crash from Tue to Wed on the 12z Euro is about as epic as you'll see this time of year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 I'm just that good. My secret is that I stick to the facts, unlike SOME people.Haha. Oh s**t. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 The crash from Tue to Wed on the 12z Euro is about as epic as you'll see this time of year.Its pretty crazy... but that strength definitely plays in our favor later. Warm air comes in from the north on Friday and stays for the entire weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Its pretty crazy... but that strength definitely plays in our favor later. Warm air comes in from the north on Friday and stays for the entire weekend. Considering how much the models have been changing in the short-mid range, I wouldn't bank on the 6-10 day period remaining untouched now. The ensemble spread illustrates that pretty well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Kind of easy to see where the 12z EPS mean is trending in the extended range. At least for now. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/072EB25A-D462-4306-A931-A093FF152AEE_zps7fiv5ml1.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/82BD3C98-17D6-4FB4-88B1-9FD36A9BE154_zpsev37dmxq.png FWIW, the ECMWF suite has been bullish on the retrogression for awhile now, in the face of most other guidance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 20, 2017 Report Share Posted May 20, 2017 Considering how much the models have been changing in the short-mid range, I wouldn't bank on the 6-10 day period remaining untouched now. The ensemble spread illustrates that pretty well.No doubt. Watching for another clipper that could dig. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 Nice dear fence Tim. Looks really nice too. I don't have that many deer issues here as they generally stay on the land below my house and my garden is on the hill above the house. I think they don't come up here because of all my dogs. I still put up a temporary deer fence, but they don't get the other forbs near the house. I want to do one like yours now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 Nice dear fence Tim. Looks really nice too. I don't have that many deer issues here as they generally stay on the land below my house and my garden is on the hill above the house. I think they don't come up here because of all my dogs. I still put up a temporary deer fence, but they don't get the other forbs near the house. I want to do one like yours now. 8 foot high fence.... 1,000 square foot garden. And its still destroyed by moles! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 8 foot high fence.... 1,000 square foot garden. And its still destroyed by moles!My dogs dig up most of the moles believe it or not lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 My dogs dig up most of the moles believe it or not lol Wish my dog was that smart. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 Trough crashes through on Wednesday on the 00Z GFS as the 12Z run showed... but its moving even faster. Making a beeline for the Midwest by Thursday. 850mb temps have rebounded quickly by Thursday afternoon. Waiting to see what that means for the holiday weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 All the models are rotating in warm air from the north later in the week and into the weekend on the backside of the trough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 Nice dear fence Tim. Looks really nice too. I don't have that many deer issues here as they generally stay on the land below my house and my garden is on the hill above the house. I think they don't come up here because of all my dogs. I still put up a temporary deer fence, but they don't get the other forbs near the house. I want to do one like yours now. The part of town here where most deer are found are (believe it or not) on top of the hill by North 6th Street. lol I frequently see drivers stopping by to take pictures, and there must be a reason why. They made this section of the area their home. We should have taken action when we had more money but too late now. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 Already 63 at 8 am. Good day to be on the water. Loved the 00Z ECMWF and the EPS... holiday weekend still looking good. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 Already 63 at 8 am. Good day to be on the water. Loved the 00Z ECMWF and the EPS... holiday weekend still looking good.Headed out on the maiden voyage today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 The part of town here where most deer are found are (believe it or not) on top of the hill by North 6th Street. lol I frequently see drivers stopping by to take pictures, and there must be a reason why. They made this section of the area their home. We should have taken action when we had more money but too late now. Yeah when my brother lived down there he lived in that area. Went for a walk in the evening and saw so many deer when I went down to visit. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2017 Report Share Posted May 21, 2017 WRF now shows its mostly sunny already by late morning even on Wednesday after the crash. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Top 10 warm May for SEA (and probably other places) definitely on the table if the latest Euro verifies. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 We're finally starting to see some model agreement w/ regards to the timing of the MJO bifurcation out of the EHEM. If this holds true, June will be a -PNA/+AO month, with a trough axis west of the continental divide an Aleutian/GOA anticyclone. This supports the low-frequency-derived pattern analogs favoring a cooler than average June in the PNW and much of the Intermountain West as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Pretty nice day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 77/45 here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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