July 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Phil may say it's a dry heat which it is but when it's triple digits it's hot no matter what.

 

Next few weeks here, rinse repeat, rinse repeat.

I've experienced both, and I'd prefer 115/35 over 90/75 any day.

 

The best thing about dry heat you get evening/overnight relief. By far, the worst conditions I've ever felt here have occurred near/after sundown. I usually have to confine my runs to between 5-7AM, because heat indices are often pushing 95*F+ by 830AM come mid/late July, and they often don't drop below 90*F again until/after midnight, especially in August.

[Trainwreck]

I've experienced both, and I'd prefer 115/35 over 90/75 any day.

 

The best thing about dry heat you get evening/overnight relief. By far, the worst conditions I've ever felt here have occurred near/after sundown. I usually have to confine my runs to between 5-7AM, because heat indices are often pushing 95*F+ by 830AM come mid/late July, and they often don't drop below 90*F again until/after midnight, especially in August.

Today I was 100/24. Bad enough. I've experienced a humid 95/70 before too and they both suck. Regardless, when it's constantly sunny all day, like it is here, you can add almost 20 degrees to the temp in the sun so it's very comparable when out in it.

[Phil]

Today I was 100/24. Bad enough. I've experienced a humid 95/70 before too and they both suck. Regardless, when it's constantly sunny all day, like it is here, you can add almost 20 degrees to the temp in the sun so it's very comparable when out in it.

Interesting. To me, there's a huge difference in how it feels regardless of the sun angle. I notice it the most at night, though.

 

That 85/80 afternoon we had last week felt a gazillion times worse than the stretch of 97/65 afternoons during the mini heatwave back in mid-June. I feel like it just sucks away my life force.

[Phil]

Both suck. Sitka sucks worse though. I could find summer activities in DC.

Oh please. Tranquil, 60 degree weather is a million times more comfortable than swamp weather. No AC bills, mosquitoes, excessive sweating, or loud cicadas, either.

 

It's not even debatable.

[TT-SEA]

Oh please. Tranquil, 60 degree weather is a million times more comfortable than swamp weather. No AC bills, mosquitoes, excessive sweating, or loud cicadas, either.

 

It's not even debatable.

 

 

55 degrees and rain and wind every day is November... not summer.    And they have mosquitoes to the extreme in Alaska.  

 

No Phil... I don't want winter in the summer and I don't want to melt.    Luckily I live in an area where 75-80 degrees and sunshine and low humidity is the default summer weather.   

[Phil]

A temperature of -33*C was recorded in Greenland yesterday.

 

That would be a record low for the NH in July.

[Phil]

Yup, it's official. A new Northern Hemisphere record low for the month of July (-27.4*F) was set at summit station, Greenland.

 

By comparison, the average January high temperature at that location is -31*F. Very, very impressive airmass, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS back to a hot solution later next week after a brief cool down.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z GFS back to a hot solution later next week after a brief cool down.

 

When was the last time you saw rain? I feel like this dry stretch is going to beat out any rainy stretches we had this past winter/spring for duration.

[TT-SEA]

When was the last time you saw rain? I feel like this dry stretch is going to beat out any rainy stretches we had this past winter/spring for duration.

Had the really big rain a couple weeks ago... over 2 inches here. It would have to go another 3 months without rain to offset the 3.5 months from February through mid May when it rained almost every day.

[Front Ranger]

When was the last time you saw rain? I feel like this dry stretch is going to beat out any rainy stretches we had this past winter/spring for duration.

It's starting to approach an impressive dry stretch for this early in the summer many places.

[TT-SEA]

It's starting to approach an impressive dry stretch for this early in the summer many places.

It is quite impressive how the faucet just completely shut off with nothing in sight. I think something similar happened in 2012 starting in early July.

[Front Ranger]

It is quite impressive how the faucet just completely shut off with nothing in sight. I think something similar happened in 2012 starting in early July.

But even with the brief 2 day wet stretch in June, it's drier than normal since mid May. That's much different than 2012.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z GFS back to a hot solution later next week after a brief cool down.

They are really struggling to figure things out for next week.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Had the really big rain a couple weeks ago... over 2 inches here. It would have to go another 3 months without rain to offset the 3.5 months from February through mid May when it rained almost every day.

 

You're forgetting that we're entering into what is historically the warmest/driest time of the year, nightmare scenario; we'll need an exceptionally rainy fall to make up for it  . Up to 18 days without measureable rain here, this could easily turn into the equivalent of a month without rain based on the forecasts I'm seeing. There are no incoming frontal systems and it doesn't look very favorable for convection. But hey, maybe we'll luck out and squeeze out some drizzly stratus days?

[TT-SEA]

You're forgetting that we're entering into what is historically the warmest/driest time of the year, nightmare scenario; we'll need an exceptionally rainy fall to make up for it  . Up to 18 days without measureable rain here, this could easily turn into the equivalent of a month without rain based on the forecasts I'm seeing. There are no incoming frontal systems and it doesn't look very favorable for convection. But hey, maybe we'll luck out and squeeze out some drizzly stratus days?

 

I am not forgetting that.   Its called summer.   Rain stopped in mid June which is typical.   Whether we had a couple minor rainfalls of .05 to break up a streak is irrelevant.   Its typically pretty dry from mid-June through August.   In a few weeks... rain becomes more statistically likely.   I will enjoy the break in the rain as long as it wants to last.   Although I would prefer a soaking rain once a week.   At night and followed by a sunny day.  

[ShawniganLake]

You're forgetting that we're entering into what is historically the warmest/driest time of the year, nightmare scenario; we'll need an exceptionally rainy fall to make up for it . Up to 18 days without measureable rain here, this could easily turn into the equivalent of a month without rain based on the forecasts I'm seeing. There are no incoming frontal systems and it doesn't look very favorable for convection. But hey, maybe we'll luck out and squeeze out some drizzly stratus days?

Getting pretty dry now. Campfire bans in effect. Looking at some BC webcams you can see the smoke plume, on the begbie summit cam, from the fire that broke out near 100 mile house this afternoon.

[Front Ranger]

When you consider it's rained like 10 days in Seattle over the past 60, with none in sight and entering the driest time of year, this sure looks to be setting up for an equally historic response to the record wet Feb-Apr.

[TT-SEA]

Getting pretty dry now. Campfire bans in effect. Looking at some BC webcams you can see the smoke plume, on the begbie summit cam, from the fire that broke out near 100 mile house this afternoon.

 

 

My sons had a fireworks show with their friends on Tuesday night here.   We were out in the yard this morning and could smell smoke.   A spruce tree in a planting bed in front of our house was smoldering and turning black.   Two days later!   We doused it with water and in an hour there was smoke coming out of it again.    We ripped it out and set it in the driveway.  

 

[TT-SEA]

When you consider it's rained like 10 days in Seattle over the past 60, with none in sight and entering the driest time of year, this sure looks to be setting up for an equally historic response to the record wet Feb-Apr.

 

Yeah... feels that way.   Its rained on about 10 days in the last 50 days at SEA.   But May was above normal and June was almost perfectly normal in terms of total rain.   And SEA is running 9.21 inches above normal for 2017 so far!  

 

We will see what August and September bring.

 

I was fully expecting this to turn into a very dry summer after the record setting persistently wet spring and this is about what I was expecting.   

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... feels that way. Its rained on about 10 days in the last 50 days at SEA. But May was above normal and June was almost perfectly normal in terms of total rain. And SEA is running 9.21 inches above normal for 2017 so far!

 

We will see what August and September bring.

 

I was fully expecting this to turn into a very dry summer after the record setting persistently wet spring and this is about what I was expecting.

Local knowledge matters. One thing you have that Phil lacks.

 

Looking beyond SEA, though, the region has been drier than normal since mid May. Only reason it hasn't been historically dry is a brief 2 day stretch.

[TT-SEA]

Local knowledge matters. One thing you have that Phil lacks.

 

Looking beyond SEA, though, the region has been drier than normal since mid May. Only reason it hasn't been historically dry is a brief 2 day stretch.

 

That was a really wet couple days though.. and it was a November-like conveyor belt.   

[BLI snowman]

When you consider it's rained like 10 days in Seattle over the past 60, with none in sight and entering the driest time of year, this sure looks to be setting up for an equally historic response to the record wet Feb-Apr.

 

Eh, SEA was wetter than average for May and right at average for June. Nothing historically noteworthy thus far about this dry stretch.

[Front Ranger]

That was a really wet couple days though.. and it was a November-like conveyor belt.

But it was brief.

 

Fair is fair. You emphasized the near constant nature of the rain Feb-Apr. Big reversal since, and a couple wet days doesn't change that.

[TT-SEA]

But it was brief.

 

Fair is fair. You emphasized the near constant nature of the rain Feb-Apr. Big reversal since, and a couple wet days doesn't change that.

 

 

I agree and have said so numerous times.   Summer essentially started on May 19th this year... that was the day it completely flipped in terms of rain being the exception rather than the rule.  

[Phil]

Eh, SEA was wetter than average for May and right at average for June. Nothing historically noteworthy thus far about this dry stretch.

Was about to comment on that.

 

Numbers must never stand in the way of subjective hyperbole, though. Forum rule.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF now has a solid marine layer day on Monday.   That is a change from previous runs.

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF now has a solid marine layer day on Monday. That is a change from previous runs.

Lots of blue over your house on this run.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of blue over your house on this run.

 

Just my house??  

 

Remember... blue does not always mean below normal here in the summer.    And sometimes red can be below normal.   Go figure!  

[Phil]

Just my house??

 

Remember... blue does not always mean below normal here in the summer. And sometimes red can be below normal. Go figure!

Some clouds and drizzle too. Smack dab in the middle of your brief little summer. Ouch.

[TT-SEA]

Some clouds and drizzle too. Smack dab in the middle of your brief little summer. Ouch.

 

We could use a cloudy day with some drizzle.   And a Monday would be perfect! 

[Phil]

We could use a cloudy day with some drizzle. And a Monday would be perfect!

Heh, you didn't take the bait this time.

 

Zzzz.

[Phil]

Don't worry, I'll bring the death ridge with me.

[ShawniganLake]

Don't worry, I'll bring the death ridge with me.

Thank you. When is that again?

[Phil]

Thank you. When is that again?

July 23rd to August 1st. La la lock it up.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sky this morning...

 

[Deweydog]

Impressive blocking up north next week.

[stuffradio]

Here's an interesting stat for those who care, look at the PNW!

 

[Front Ranger]

Eh, SEA was wetter than average for May and right at average for June. Nothing historically noteworthy thus far about this dry stretch.

 

I said setting up to be.

 

Looking beyond just SEA, most of the region has been pretty dry for a couple months. The only thing preventing it from being historically dry for that period was a couple wet days in mid June.

 

It's been a very dry pattern overall, and looks to continue.

[Front Ranger]

Was about to comment on that.

 

Numbers must never stand in the way of subjective hyperbole, though. Forum rule.

 

Most of the region was drier than normal in May. Numbers.