Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 There's somebody worse than my WFO??At one point last year, one of the worst forecasters from there said something like "ECM shwng sn, so conf. is up that there will be sn" For the record, GFS was showing nothing. GFS was right. Oh and also, he's stopped abbreviating most stuff. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 18z GFS shows 12" of snow in Laredo, TX. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 18z GFS did bring some hope alive for late next week. Even though theres only light snow here the kind of system it brought back resembles what we saw a couple days ago. Hoping for a turning point tonight 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 18z GFS did bring some hope alive for late next week. Even though theres only light snow here the kind of system it brought back resembles what we saw a couple days ago. Hoping for a turning point tonightMany GEFS members are still showing a storm for here. Funny thing is, no members are showing appreciable snowfall for Sunday. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Snowing in the Black Hills @ 5:40 PM MST. Temp 19 F and a light wind out of the north.Most of the models have 1 - 2 inches here through Saturday, but one of the WRF Hi-Res models had 4 - 6 pretty close by...that one might not be using the 10:1 method...and pretty sure this should do at least 20:1.Just 6.7" on the season thus far; so every little bit helps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Many GEFS members are still showing a storm for here. Funny thing is, no members are showing appreciable snowfall for Sunday.You mean Saturday night? What are you looking at? Your probably looking at Monday's. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Snow in my forecast w a 3-5inch event looking good. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 You mean Saturday night? What are you looking at? Your probably looking at Monday's.Saturday night, early Sunday,same thing. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I wouldn't call 2-5 inches appreciable. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png 12Z Euro :lol: 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png 12Z Euro :lol:So weird seeing maps like this cuz I was just out there 3 weeks ago in Massachusetts and it was brown and 40s. Crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I wouldn't call 2-5 inches appreciable.After last pitiful season anything that covers the grass is appreciable. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png 12Z Euro :lol: I don't know; the NE has had more blizzards...right down to the coast...since 2001...then Carter has liver pills.Down at sea level at Boston; the average annual snowfall the last 25 years is over 50 inches; nearly 10 inches above the long term mean.Would not surprise me if it came to pass. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 So weird seeing maps like this cuz I was just out there 3 weeks ago in Massachusetts and it was brown and 40s. CrazyI am hoping that this system tracks more inland. I have a feeling this storm will have to be watched for some peeps on here. Still ways off, a week away. We will see what happens. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png 12Z Euro :lol: Snowmageddon on steroids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 The Packers V. Vikings Game will be cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 A ton of moisture to our south. Gotta keep an eye on that. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/_200w/Radar/usa.gif Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I don't know; the NE has had more blizzards...right down to the coast...since 2001...then Carter has liver pills.Down at sea level at Boston; the average annual snowfall the last 25 years is over 50 inches; nearly 10 inches above the long term mean.Would not surprise me if it came to pass.They really get nailed w big snow amounts in the Winter! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 The Packers V. Vikings Game will be cold! Brrrrrrrrrrr! Bundle up! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gfs back south for next week CMC came north from 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gfs back south for next week CMC came north from 12z runLooks like it has a bigger storm though. So that's nice I guess? Just gotta get that HP to play ball.... 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Looks like it has a bigger storm though. So that's nice I guess? Just gotta get that HP to play ball....Yeah the energy was north and stronger initially but that 1044 H parked itself south of previous runs and suppressed it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yup way too much cold air. Pushing everything south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 They really get nailed w big snow amounts in the Winter! In 2014-15 the Logan Airport right on the Boston Harbor (sea level) had 110.6 inches of snow. Here the snow growth is soo bad right now that I think I have freezing drizzle and a temperature of about 11 F. A salter came through an hour or so ago and the blacktop on the road is still wet...yes wet...with a temp of 11 F. You can't make this stuff up... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I would like to see that foot plus get nudged over to the central part of the US! This storm has shown up in the long range for consecutive runs now. It looks to me like we might have a biggy next week somewhere in the lower 48..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I could be wrong, but I think Kuchera only factors in temps at the surface and ignores temperatures in the clouds (where the precip is created) and therefore is not the best device for snow prediction. Edit: The freezing drizzle here seems to be going over to light snow and the road is getting covered @ 10:30 MST. So far less than an inch of snow today. Visibility is poor; but due to fog and not snow. There's practically an inversion here as the temp @ 850 mb is not too different from that at the surface...and snow growth suffers if there is not a steep drop in temp as one goes higher up. As a general rule, the air cools about 1 F for every 300 feet you go up...but with an inversion, it is often coldest at 2m. An inversion creates stability, and puts a cap on rising air...thus badly inhibiting the formation of clouds and rain or snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Welp. I must say..not feeling too jolly about late next week. Gfs and cmc step back again Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I could be wrong, but I think Kuchera only factors in temps at the surface and ignores temperatures in the clouds (where the precip is created) and therefore is not the best device for snow prediction. Edit: The freezing drizzle here seems to be going over to light snow and the road is getting covered @ 10:30 MST. So far less than an inch of snow today.Yeah it definitely has its flaws, but I mainly use it because of the fact that 10:1 maps are obviously the exact same ratio, where Kuchera is more fluid, so it'll at least give a general idea. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I use this and it has not proven me wrong http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/snow-ratio-chart.png 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I use this and it has not proven me wrong http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/snow-ratio-chart.pngWe had one snowfall last year (12/3) where one of the local mets melted down the snow and got a 6:1 ratio. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Yeah it definitely has its flaws, but I mainly use it because of the fact that 10:1 maps are obviously the exact same ratio, where Kuchera is more fluid, so it'll at least give a general idea. Well, if all the Kucera maps from November 1st had verified; Lincoln would be working on its second foot of snow; rather than its second inch... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Well, if all the Kucera maps from November 1st had verified; Lincoln would be working on its second foot of snow; rather than its second inch...That's because we've gotten very few flakes. Only snowfall where ratios would have made a meaningful difference was Halloween, where we could have gotten an inch if conditions were better (temp of 34, wet snow, warm ground). If 10:1 maps had verified, then we'd be looking at quite a bit too. Can't blame our lack of snow on Kuchera. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Can't blame our lack of snow on Kuchera. I don't blame numerical weather models for anything...I'm just saying they don't often reflect reality...especially beyond 120 hours...and Kuchera exacerbates that illusion. They have gotten much better in recent years...especially with temperature...but precip is still tricky for them in the late mid-range. Even ECMWF...probably the best model...has had some tremendous failures with East Coast snow storms in the last 5 years inside of Day 3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here the snow growth is soo bad right now that I think I have freezing drizzle and a temperature of about 11 F. A salter came through an hour or so ago and the blacktop on the road is still wet...yes wet...with a temp of 11 F. You can't make this stuff up... Several stations in western SD reporting "mist" at 11 PM so I'm not seeing things... I think that might produce rime ice if it continues long enough...common atop Mt Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I am hoping for some serious awakening of the models this weekend for next week. It's still 7-8 days away. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is still better than the GFS/GDPS through ten days... a bit south for my liking,though. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_234.png 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 What an amazingly cold run for ECMWF...Dakotas may end up below normal for December when all is said & done after all... Edit: Since some stations are currently +10 DFN; its close to impossible; but the numbers will certainly be knocked down quite a bit the last 9 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is still better than the GFS/GDPS through ten days... a bit south for my liking,though. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_234.pngObviously on the low side of things because of how cold the temperatures will be. Don't need much moisture in this cold air to pile things up quickly. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is still better than the GFS/GDPS through ten days... a bit south for my liking,though. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_234.pngI'd 100% rather have a system show up south of me in the med-long range than north though. Seems systems often adjust northward as time closes in. Also what craig said is true. With ratios, you can probably multiply that by 1.3 or 1.5. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 @OK......you getting snow down there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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