January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

Looked about the same as the last 4-6 GEFS runs...

Jesse?

[snow_wizard]

00z GEFS was horrid.

 

The same as its been pretty much.  The GFS solution seems reasonable given the context, but time will tell.

[MossMan]

Windy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looked about the same as the last 4-6 GEFS runs...

Nah. 500mb anomaly drifts further and further east. NOPE

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours 36 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It did help.

 

I THINK this winter will end up better than 2014-15. But as of right now it has a long way to go here to even be that "good." The inversiony December was a bit below normal, but nothing to write home about and January has been an absolute disaster. 12 straight days without a sub-freezing low now. Pretty much unheard of here in winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nah. 500mb anomaly drifts further and further east. NOPE

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours 36 minutes

 

Dude think cold and snow... Seriously though the difference in the GEFS was negligible. But that would match the EPS which is a bit further eaST!

 

Thanks to TigerWoodsLibido for that hot take earlier. 

[Guest El nina]

Last winter we had a GOA ridge much of the time so we didn't have to talk about it.

So was it negative the whole time?

[snow_wizard]

Nah. 500mb anomaly drifts further and further east. NOPE

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours 36 minutes

 

I think it will be fine based on the tropics.  I have high confidence in a GOA ridge developing.  Beyond that we will have to wait and see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it will be fine based on the tropics.  I have high confidence in a GOA ridge developing.  Beyond that we will have to wait and see.

 

I think the danger in the long range is that ridge developing to close to the coast...Maybe an early February 2011 pattern developing.

[snow_wizard]

So was it negative the whole time?

 

I'm not certain, but it's very likely either it or the EPO were minus.  That's why it was so cold for so long.

[snow_wizard]

I think the danger in the long range is that ridge developing to close to the coast...Maybe an early February 2011 pattern developing.

 

Perhaps.  That one sure went somewhere good later though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perhaps.  That one sure went somewhere good later though.

 

Yes, but that winter already had a good track record...The November blast and the nice late December early January cold snap. 

[snow_wizard]

In fact the PNA was minus last winter.  The Dec - Feb average was -1.01.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Goodness, what is up with the GEM...

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey, I just call it like I see it. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I don't sugarcoat anything or give false hopes. It wouldn't take much to get us into a very cold pattern. With that being said 00z GEM not quite as good.

 

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12z ECMWF in 11 hours 41 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF No idea how, but apparently this run has already finished. Day 10 and NOPE! Not yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DJ is right the GEM isn't that good. I still think the trough later in the week is going to continue to get watered down. Still looking good for some snow up here, the negative trend has kind of stabilized the past 24 hours. Still a long way to go though. 

[Guest El nina]

I'm not certain, but it's very likely either it or the EPO were minus. That's why it was so cold for so long.

Man that cold was so persistent, there was always something for you guys to track. And Jim, even if we don't get anything else this winter, it's already a very special one because both Seattle and Portland had a white Christmas. I think that salvaged it no matter what.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ECMWF No idea how, but apparently this run has already finished. Day 10 and NOPE! Not yet.

 

A lot of bad news tonight. We are about 10 days away from being able to make a definitive call on a winter cancel. If the mid/.late week trough washes out and the one around the 30th disappears, it will be pretty darn easy to make that call. For the PNW as a whole this is probably on track to be the worst winter since 2002-03. You have to remember that east of the Cascades November 2014 was historic, probably pushes that winter ahead of this one so far. 

[Gradient Keeper]

It's painful how close we are to a really great pattern though. Onto 12z! well 6z first.

[Gradient Keeper]

A lot of bad news tonight. We are about 10 days away from being able to make a definitive call on a winter cancel. If the mid/.late week trough washes out and the one around the 30th disappears, it will be pretty darn easy to make that call.

I can literally see the reflection of Mark Nelsen's face in the pair of forks he's holding right now. Lol

 

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6z NAM in 1 hour 35 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Good looking GEM run.  The 522 thickness line goes south of Seattle by hour 216.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of bad news tonight. We are about 10 days away from being able to make a definitive call on a winter cancel. If the mid/.late week trough washes out and the one around the 30th disappears, it will be pretty darn easy to make that call. For the PNW as a whole this is probably on track to be the worst winter since 2002-03. You have to remember that east of the Cascades November 2014 was historic, probably pushes that winter ahead of this one so far. 

 

Some good news too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can literally see the reflection of Mark Nelsen's face in the pair of forks he's holding right now. Lol

 

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6z NAM in 1 hour 35 minutes

 

Mark is cackling and thinking about how he can piss off Jesse.

[Gradient Keeper]

Mark is cackling and thinking about how he can piss off Jesse.

LOL

 

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12z NAM in 7 hours 32 minutes

[snow_wizard]

DJ is right the GEM isn't that good. I still think the trough later in the week is going to continue to get watered down. Still looking good for some snow up here, the negative trend has kind of stabilized the past 24 hours. Still a long way to go though. 

 

How is it not that good?

[snow_wizard]

Man that cold was so persistent, there was always something for you guys to track. And Jim, even if we don't get anything else this winter, it's already a very special one because both Seattle and Portland had a white Christmas. I think that salvaged it no matter what.

 

Yeah.  There are ones that we can't possibly do worse than.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some good news too.

 

Yeah, not a disaster, just feels so tenuous. GEM is definitely better than the GFS.

[Phil]

Well, that Euro run was..blah. To put it lightly.

[Gradient Keeper]

How is it not that good?

Day 10 upper flow 12z GEM due northerly, and WNW on 00z GEM. = Nope. Still chilly don't get me wrong at Day 9-10 on the GEM thicknesses do drop below 522 so there could certainly be some lowland snow, but it won't last unless you're above 1000' to 500' also mainly SW surface winds. The fun part is there's still plenty of time for things to improve, but they could equally worsen with the ridge building nosing right up along the Coast too.

[snow_wizard]

Geeze this place turned gloomy.  I'll be back after the attitude gets better.  The tropics say this is our time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How is it not that good?

 

I hadn't seen the full run. The latter part is pretty good, hour 240 is way better than the GFS... The trough next week continues to trend poorly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Windy.

We actually have a rather potent front and system developing offshore that hasn't split apart to mere nothingness. This looks active.

 

[Jesse]

A lot of bad news tonight. We are about 10 days away from being able to make a definitive call on a winter cancel. If the mid/.late week trough washes out and the one around the 30th disappears, it will be pretty darn easy to make that call. For the PNW as a whole this is probably on track to be the worst winter since 2002-03. You have to remember that east of the Cascades November 2014 was historic, probably pushes that winter ahead of this one so far.

If you want to maintain any shred of credibility here you should really stop making posts like this.

[ShawniganLake]

MT Washington on Vancouver Island. It's snowing so hard, they've closed the ski hill and the road.

Screen-Shot-2018-01-20-at-8.29.19-PM.png

I figured they would get hammered. Wouldn’t shock me if they got 3 feet tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you want to maintain any shred of credibility here you should really stop making posts like this.

 

I think the last person who I will take advice on credibility would be someone who has multiple forum suspensions. 

 

But the funny thing is, if you notice this post was edited. I quickly realized the original post probably wouldn't bring you out of the woodwork into attack mode. 

[Jesse]

I think the last person who I will take advice on credibility would be someone who has multiple forum suspensions.

Tensions running high tonight!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tensions running high tonight!

 

Please review my edited post above.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z EURO looks fine to me at day 10. Lots of frigid Siberian air in BC. The ridge looks like it's building and ready to amplify up into Alaska. The time period to score isn't until a few days into February, give it some time.

 

 

[stuffradio]

Here's my first weather map! This was from Jan 11th from the GFS. I'm just so excited. I could create maps that focus on WA and OR and post them with the method I use to program them.