January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

It might snow here with the late week trough, but goodness that thing has been watered down and confined to be. Kind of a preview of what probably happens to next weeks trough.

There were some runs that showed thicknesses dropping below 520 when that trough was out around the resolution change. But it has been handled pretty consistently the last few days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love how when I post clown range images of the control run going nuts then no one says a word or better yet jumps on me for comparing it to some of the great events in the past.  The EPS does not really have a clown range either.   Its a blend of all the ECMWF ensembles and its more meaningful than any single run in that range.

 

Shawnigan has been tracking the EPS in the 10-15 day period as gut check to where this pattern is heading.    It has not changed.   Transitory shot of cold air and then it moves east.    He was going to post the same thing this morning as he has done for the last several days.    Consistency over several days with the EPS is actually meaningful in this situation.   

 

At this point there is no reason to doubt your analysis...Pretty obvious what you are saying is the most likely solution.

[TT-SEA]

I call out the day 10+ control run posters whenever I see them. It goes both ways though.

Control run in that range is just for fun. EPS is more meaningful.

[Jesse]

People mistake weenieism with realism way too often around here. Even if weenies end up ultimately being right, it is for the wrong reasons. Level headed analysis is much preferable to the tear-drenched despaircasting that contributes nothing to this place.

[van city]

12z GFS!

[ShawniganLake]

12z trying to go places in the long range again.

 

In the mid range there are some snow chances late this week and early next week.

[ShawniganLake]

Mind blown. Lock it in.

[van city]

12z trying to go places in the long range again.

In the mid range there are some snow chances late this week and early next week.

Tim is going to like this run. Dormant grass?

[Farmboy]

Geeze this place turned gloomy. I'll be back after the attitude gets better. The tropics say this is our time.

The Pacific ocean says "let's not go putting the cart before the horse."

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is beautiful in the long range... I would love that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

MAJOR GFS ALERT! 

 

GFS looks a lot like the GEM did yesterday. GEM looks more like the GFS yesterday...Come on EURO!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I agree, but the mood on here made me elect to not mention it.

Yeah, hopefully models start to come around today. I just woke up and I have a busy day so I won't have a chance to check the models until later. Already running late this morning.

[Jesse]

Yeah, hopefully models start to come around today. I just woke up and I have a busy day so I won't have a chance to check the models until later. Already running late this morning.

Don’t look at the 12z GFS, it’s a total trainwreck.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, hopefully models start to come around today. I just woke up and I have a busy day so I won't have a chance to check the models until later. Already running late this morning.

Thanks for the update. Hope you have a great day.

[Farmboy]

Wow, so I guess it seems a lot is riding on the 12z Euro this morning. Hope it doesn't disappoint.

[ShawniganLake]

Mt Washington remains closed today due to heavy snow and high avalanche danger. I’ll be curious to see how much snow fell up there last night.

31” overnight and 41” in 24hrs.

 

Have fun digging your car out.

 

[Jesse]

Wow, so I guess it seems a lot is riding on the 12z Euro this morning. Hope it doesn't disappoint.

The really good stuff on the 12z is well beyond day 10. Although it would be nice to see the pattern setting up favorably toward the end.

[MossMan]

31” overnight and 41” in 24hrs.

 

Have fun digging your car out.

 

3180E6E0-B295-49DD-83C2-E936C531C944.png

Good thing that one car owner put his wipers up...at least he can find it! The dog seems to be having fun!

[van city]

31” overnight and 41” in 24hrs.

Have fun digging your car out.

3180E6E0-B295-49DD-83C2-E936C531C944.png

And more to come.

[van city]

Fast Euro not so fast today... Good sign?

[MossMan]

Would sure be nice if the radar worked for more than 12hrs at a time before going down again for days...

[ShawniganLake]

Day 10, improvements

 

[High Desert Mat!]

Vast improvements days 7-10 on the euro. Nice to see it's following the gem and gfs.

[MossMan]

We might actually have something decent stewing in the distance.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And the EURO comes through!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It does appear the operational GFS was an outlier as expected...But sometimes dreams do come true.

[van city]

We need DJ.

[Jesse]

A very late January/early February event of some sort would make a lot of sense given how this winter has progressed. Glad to see the models coming together a bit this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A very late January/early February event of some sort would make a lot of sense given how this winter has progressed. Glad to see the models coming together a bit this morning.

 

Hopefully a February 1883, 1896, 1989 redux of sortz.

[AbbyJr]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Some very nice snow depths in the olympics. 107 inches at 4800ft.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Imo this is the best model run of the season. A chance to get cold with moisture.

[Jesse]

Hopefully a February 1883, 1896, 1989 redux of sortz.

Good to set the bar as high as possible early on.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully a February 1883, 1896, 1989 redux of sortz.

2014 is good too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Impressive. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=CWEZ&num=48&raw=0&dbn=m

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Now tidbits is going slow.

[MossMan]

2014 is good too.

I had a trace of snow for that major event!

[Farmboy]

Apparently, the upcoming pattern is too much to handle for the Euro and it's shorting out...

[ShawniganLake]

Now tidbits is going slow.

Seems like it’s working fine

[Guest El nina]

Getting some snow this morning, Mr. Supercell?