January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Temp dropping off quickly under clear skies. Down to 34 already. All this talk of February 1989 and 90 has me a little excited. Historically we can do really well in February. Just been a pretty lame month 1997-2017 aside from a couple decent events. You could make a case that March has been more interesting than February in the Willamette Valley during that period. 

 

It's trending better, though. 

 

- Feb 2017 big Puget Sound snowstorm

- Feb 2014 Arctic air, snowstorms everywhere but Puget Sound region

- Feb 2011 historic late month blast

 

Much better than the 1997-2010 period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How about some fun January 1950 facts...

 

Salem, Oregon

 

Days with at least a trace of snow: 28

Days with measurable precip: 31

Days with measurable snowfall: 19

Total snowfall: 32.8"

 

Monthly Maximum: 55

Monthly Minimum: -10

 

Monthly Precip: 11.70" 

[Guest Dome Buster]

One cool thing about Redding is mt. Shasta is very close and the lassen volcanic national park is a hop, skip, and a jump. Lots of glaciers and hot springs nearby. You gain elevation very quickly due east of there. I spent a summer there working back in '95. Had a great time. Another plus is a lot of the women are very nice to look at.

[Deweydog]

You're very repetitive

Ask him about the president.

[TT-SEA]

How about some fun January facts...

 

Salem, Oregon

 

Days with at least a trace of snow: 28

Days with measurable precip: 31

Days with measurable snowfall: 19

Total snowfall: 32.8"

 

Monthly Maximum: 55

Monthly Minimum: -10

 

Monthly Precip: 11.70" 

 

Salem has never been above 55 in January?     Almost did that here today with a very bland set up.    The highest January temp at SEA is 64.   I think some mountain locations up here have been above 70 though.   wxstatman can confirm. 

[Front Ranger]

Also some solid perspective is that the last time the average maximum in both July and August in EUG was below normal was in 2000.  That's 17 straight years of warmer than normal.  The most recent year that was even within shouting distance of normal was 2010.

 

Or perhaps EUG's thermometer is as far off as its rain gauge?

 

I'm seeing both July and August 2010 as below normal at EUG.

 

EDIT: I see you were only talking about maximums. But for the monthly averages, 2010 was a solidly cooler than normal summer.

 

But yeah, no doubt it's been warm lately, especially August. Not close to Redding-like heat, though.

[Deweydog]

Is this the historical PNW weather thread now? Gawd, our January climate has become a disaster.

Once we declared NPS victory we all kind of fell into a championship hangover.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's trending better, though. 

 

- Feb 2017 big Puget Sound snowstorm

- Feb 2014 Arctic air, snowstorms everywhere but Puget Sound region

- Feb 2011 historic late month blast

 

Much better than the 1997-2010 period.

 

True. The highlight of the 97-2010 period in the Willamette Valley was a bone dry "arctic blast" that had highs in the mid-40s, and 2" of wet snow in late February 2009. 

 

On the other hand the 1985-1996 period was VERY good for February... Just at SLE.

 

1985: 33/11 on the 4th. 4.6" of snow

1986: 3.6" of snow

1989: Coldest February on record. 8.9" of snow, last sub-zero reading at SLE. 5 straight single digit lows, 7 lows of 12 or lower in a row. 

1990: 9.6" of snow, massive foothills snow mid-month. Also some incredible early spring weather the last week of the month with back to back highs of 68 (68/27 spread one day.)

1993: Massive overrunning snowstorm on the 19th with 12" of snow. 14.1" storm total.

1995: 3.1" snow event mid-month. Most areas around Salem actually had more like 4-6" with that event. 

1996: Lingering arctic airmass early in the month. Massive flooding, then cold onshore flow late month with significant foothills accumulations. Silverton had 1.5" of snow late month. Then offshore flow, and just missed out on an overrunning snow event which stayed south and gave Eugene several inches of snow to close the month. 

[TT-SEA]

I'm seeing both July and August 2010 as below normal at EUG.

 

EDIT: I see you were only talking about maximums. But for the monthly averages, 2010 was a solidly cooler than normal summer.

 

But yeah, no doubt it's been warm lately, especially August. Not close to Redding-like heat, though.

 

The rumor is that its becoming Redding... its not there yet.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem has never been above 55 in January?     Almost did that here today with a very bland set up.    The highest January temp at SEA is 64.   I think some mountain locations up here have been above 70 though.   wxstatman can confirm. 

 

My bad. That was January 1950...I fixed the original post. 

 

Salem's all-time January high was 68 on January 18, 1899. 

[TT-SEA]

My bad. That was January 1950...I fixed the original post. 

 

Salem's all-time January high was 68 on January 18, 1899. 

 

Ahhh... that makes much more sense.   We know they can get blasted with warm southerly flow.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something really unbelievable I just noticed while looking up some of these stats. Salem's records go back 126 years. Half of their record warm months have come since October 2014! What an unbelievable stretch of warmth. 

 

February 2015

June 2015

July 2015

August 2017

October 2014

November 2016

 

And then September 2017 was the 2nd warmest on record behind only 2011....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ahhh... that makes much more sense.   We know they can get blasted with warm southerly flow.  

 

Be interesting to see if that 68 is legit though. Its in the realm of possibility, but I need to compare it to nearby stations. The December record there of 72 in 1929 is a good 10-12 degrees warmer than any other nearby stations that day so is likely incorrect. 

[Phil]

But there are quite a few other examples, though that was extreme. Local mets call it the "Arctic EXPRESS", since it comes here from a distance and arrives relatively quickly. It even produces lake effect snow in places like Port Angeles. It is the classic way the PNW gets arctic air. I have lived here 51 years and have seen it quite often. That is different than other patterns, like November 2006, for example, or December 1996 or two systems in March 2002, where there was cold air in BC and it got pulled down by a well placed low pressure system. Those tend to be snowy, but not as cold. So definitely more than one way for Western Washington or sometimes even Western Oregon to SCORE!

Yeah, but Arctic express patterns are highly amplified.

 

I guess what I’m trying to say is that amplification might be lacking in February, hence my worry about scouring out too much Arctic air from Canada. It might be a back breaker.

[BLI snowman]

My bad. That was January 1950...I fixed the original post. 

 

Salem's all-time January high was 68 on January 18, 1899. 

 

Like December 1929, that one is definitely not accurate. 

[Winterdog]

32F right now.  The big question is whether or not I can hold on to a freezing temp until after midnight and extend my January freezes another day.  I'll keep you all posted.

[snow_wizard]

Two days now the MJO forecast hasn't updated.  The last forecast looked extremely favorable for us.  No doubt a big pattern shake up is in the works.

[snow_wizard]

32F right now.  The big question is whether or not I can hold on to a freezing temp until after midnight and extend my January freezes another day.  I'll keep you all posted.

 

 

I'm amazed you stayed that cold today.  I had a 37-29 yesterday which is pretty good given the situation.

[snow_wizard]

Something really unbelievable I just noticed while looking up some of these stats. Salem's records go back 126 years. Half of their record warm months have come since October 2014! What an unbelievable stretch of warmth. 

 

February 2015

June 2015

July 2015

August 2017

October 2014

November 2016

 

And then September 2017 was the 2nd warmest on record behind only 2011....

 

April 2014 through much of 2016 was an epic warm period.  Kind of reminiscent of 1939 through 1941.

[Winterdog]

I'm amazed you stayed that cold today.  I had a 37-29 yesterday which is pretty good given the situation.

My house only see's the sun in the winter from around 8am to 10am.  I've had frost in the shady areas for several days now.

[Bryant]

Ask him about the president.

He hates on Trump, but he sure acts like him

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think if I lived in W. Washington I would live in that northern Snohomish County area. Arlington, Lake Goodwin, Granite Falls...Somewhere up in there. Seems like a nice climate with good radiational cooling. Also last I looked home prices seemed pretty reasonable. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He hates on Trump, but he sure acts like him

 

Truer words. 

 

Man, that statement Trump released about Bannon today was absolutely epic...Say what you will about Trump, he pulls no punches. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’m sure you realize a 30 day mean could look like a ridge even if it had 1 week of arctic air surrounded by 3 weeks of +PNA. Not likely but possible

Yeah I know that. I was just basing the 30 day mean from the 15 day mean. The 15 day mean has about +30 to +60 anomalies. The 30 day mean has over +120 anomalies west of the Cascades. That means the 15 to 30 day period is much warmer. So if the CPC maps verify, the 2nd half of January won't have much action. The 60 day mean looks much better and anomalies drop quite a bit from the 30 day so February should be action packed. It remains to be seen if this means some sort of Arctic blast, cool onshore flow or just stormy weather.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_15_maps.02.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_30_maps.02.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_60_maps.02.gif

[TT-SEA]

I think if I lived in W. Washington I would live in that northern Snohomish County area. Arlington, Lake Goodwin, Granite Falls...Somewhere up in there. Seems like a nice climate with good radiational cooling. Also last I looked home prices seemed pretty reasonable. 

 

Cool summers up there too with west winds through the Strait.    Not my ideal spot. 

 

Mossman will tell you that he is leaving because that area has become a drug infested mess... and of course because he wants colder winters and warmer summers.  

[TT-SEA]

Truer words. 

 

Man, that statement Trump released about Bannon today was absolutely epic...Say what you will about Trump, he pulls no punches. 

 

Bannon also pulls no punches... but he is intelligent and strategic.

 

Trump pulls no punches because he is paranoid and unintelligent and is trying to deflect attention.    

 

In the same book... it was reported that Trump never reads.   Not even skims.   If its in print then it might as well not exist and he is basically semi-illiterate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bannon also pulls no punches... but he is intelligent and strategic.

 

Trump pulls no punches because he is paranoid and unintelligent and is trying to deflect attention.    

 

In the same book... it was reported that Trump never reads.   Not even skims.   If its in print then it might as well not exist and he is basically semi-illiterate. 

 

Wasn't that GWB, I mean not reading? I may be the most literate Republican alive today.

[Winterdog]

Cool summers up there too with west winds through the Strait.    Not my ideal spot. 

 

Mossman will tell you that he is leaving because that area has become a drug infested mess... and because he wants colder winters and warmer summers.  

Not any more than any other area around the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett corridor.  You are a strange bird Tim.  

[Guest Dome Buster]

Cool summers up there too with west winds through the Strait.    Not my ideal spot. 

 

Mossman will tell you that he is leaving because that area has become a drug infested mess... and of course because he wants colder winters and warmer summers.  

I had a hell of a lot of fun living at 450' in Lake Stevens from 2001-2010.  Some of the convergence zones that developed during that period were amazing.  I would say at least 40 times in that span I had over 6" inches when the Hwy 2 trestle and downtown Everett had nary a dusting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not any more than any other area around the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett corridor.  You are a strange bird Tim.  

 

I was going to say...I have been to Olympia/Lacey and Yelm...

[TT-SEA]

Wasn't that GWB, I mean not reading? I may be the most literate Republican alive today.

 

Not sure.   GWB seems like a Mensa member compared to Trump.     If you watch old Trump interviews from the 80s and 90s... you can easily see that his command of the English language and ability to coherently put thoughts together is noticeably declining.   He sounded much more rational and intelligent back then.    He was also more soft spoken.    

[TT-SEA]

Not any more than any other area around the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett corridor.  You are a strange bird Tim.  

 

That is per Randy.   He has said it many times.   

[Deweydog]

I don't want to move.

[TT-SEA]

I don't want to move.

 

I don't want to move either.  

[Winterdog]

That is per Randy.   He has said it many times.   

It's everywhere and if you don't see it you are not looking.

[Winterdog]

I want to move but I love the drugs too much.

[TT-SEA]

It's everywhere and if you don't see it you are not looking.

 

Yes... its everywhere.   And some places are much worse than others. 

[Guest Dome Buster]

Anyone on here that truly believes Trump is illiterate needs to have their head examined.  The liberal MSM has sadly fried your brain.

[Winterdog]

Yes... its everywhere.   And some places are much worse than others. 

Some people are too.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone on here that truly believes Trump is illiterate, needs to have their head examined.  The liberal MSM has sadly fried your brain.

 

His friends and staff said he is "semi-illiterate".    

 

He obviously can read.   I have seen him parrot back from a teleprompter with some success.    He just does not read anything by choice... ever.    But he will tell you that he has "the best words".   He knows all the words.   

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T-Eo0j092Q