Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 HRRR is not in line with current radar. Way further East than it is now. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 UNO and Creighton just cancelled. L.O.L. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Really can't wait for the day when a true co beast rolls through. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 HRRR is not in line with current radar. Way further East than it is now.Whats further east? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Whats further east?HRRR is East by at least 2 counties. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 NWS just posted on FB, sorry snow lovers there was a major southeast shift. 1"-2" now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 NWS just posted on FB, sorry snow lovers there was a major southeast shift. 1"-2" now.Thats still pretty generous IMO Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 New nam even further south. Completely misses lincoln and Omaha I wouldn't take the NAM that seriously... For example, the 18z run today showed it dry where I am at... Well, the NAM was totally proven wrong! We got 3/10ths of an inch of snow today... Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Hope this thing delivers in wi, but having my doubts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Thats still pretty generous IMOI agree 100%. This thing is just a classic turd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I'm just ready to be done with this thing. Nothing but a pain in the a** and wasted time. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I wouldn't take the NAM that seriously... For example, the 18z run today showed it dry where I am at... Well, the NAM was totally proven wrong! We got 3/10ths of an inch of snow today... Lol The 0z RGEM is not updating on one of the pages I find it on; but on the other, the animation site; it looked very good for SE Nebraska with some periods of heavy snow overnight. In a contest between the RGEM and NAM inside 24 hours; I would take RGEM in a second. RGEM is the BEST model inside 24 hours. By far. With that RGEM animation I cite; it is sometimes difficult for me to sense exactly where Lincoln & Omaha are; as the map has no county boundaries or city markers and I sort of have to estimate with my eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS with an inch now for Cedar Rapids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 HRRR likes DSM. But you guys watch out for the southeast trend to continue, still 10 more hours to go! Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS throws a bone for me on the SE side of Lincoln. 3". I'll take it. Radar looked similar to how it is now too. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 HRRR likes DSM. But you guys watch out for the southeast trend to continue, still 10 more hours to go!The Southeast trend will continue and it'll miss DSM. It'll keep going Southeast and bring the Deep South another 10". 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I know saying this pointless to most but I just want to get at least 1" from this just for all the time invested in it. What a crazy turn of events in the last 4 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Nobody noticed this probably, but NAM brings the clipper Friday back thru here. Makes it pretty good too. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Glad I didn't invest any time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gfs has two or three clippers hit NE in the coming days. The more widespread one still on track for Sunday night into Monday for much of Minnesota, Iowa Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 GGEM coming in with a surprise http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011100/018/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Rap now with 2-3” for Cedar Rapids. Huh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Watching the locals news at 10pm was depressing. Randby's graphic has me in the dusting-1". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Is it just me or did the latest HRRR from 03z move the heavy band in SE Nebraska *a little* to the west from 02z's run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Watching the locals news at 10pm was depressing. Randby's graphic has me in the dusting-1".All my local news were depressing too. If we can somehow get more moisture up this way we could have a surprise. Chances of that happening not the best but you can always hope for a March 2007 surprise. I was going to UNL at the time; was one of the biggest surprises I have ever experienced as a weather geek...... In other news; nothing like being in the bullseye a day out only to watch the dry hole of death make it's way into your CWA..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Watching the locals news at 10pm was depressing. Randby's graphic has me in the dusting-1".It's time to move on... I had a bad feeling about this one from the beginning and didn't want to get involved posting about it until things became more clear on the models (which surprise, never happened). This "system" is not that impressive anyway outside of the cold air coming in, so to me it's no big deal that it is missing us... it's not like this was going to drop a foot of snow (at least in this area) on anyone in the first place. Let's put this bad boy to bed, be happy with our dusting to 1" of snow and move on to the next "tease" from Mother Nature. The past few Winters haven't given myself much hope that things will change in the short term at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 I legit feel sorry for all you guys that have followed this for days.....only to get squat. That sucks! I havent been able to join the party much due to some 'life' situations going on over here. But im trying to catch up and see that i may be in the game for some real winter weather. Definitely a thread the needle event.Like myself and LNK_Weather noted earlier....there are definitely springtime elements with this compact little storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Is it just me or did the latest HRRR from 03z move the heavy band in SE Nebraska *a little* to the west from 02z's run?It was more than a little West... Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Okay seriously, radar right now looks nothing like models recently. We're about to get more rain. This rain was supposed to be later, lighter, and to our East. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 It is really quite amazing; how a half century after they put a man on the moon; they still cannot develop a sufficiently adequate numerical weather model to get the forecast right beyond a couple of days... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Oh my god the new run of the HRRR is oblivious. Shows what a horrible model it is. It has the rain that is currently moving North over us moving South! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Oh my god the new run of the HRRR is oblivious. Shows what a horrible model it is. It has the rain that is currently moving North over us moving South! Call the H.R. Department at HRRR and file a complaint... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Remember how I said this is the type of thing to nowcast? This thing is setting up 100% differently from what every model (besides Euro to an extent) had it. I knew I was skeptical of the random slot, rain is developing SW of Lincoln and we basically have a training band of light rain. Band of snow stretches from Tribune, KS to the Dakotas. There's still some light left. Don't get your hopes up too much obviously. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 It is really quite amazing; how a half century after they put a man on the moon; they still cannot develop a sufficiently adequate numerical weather model to get the forecast right beyond a couple of days...Maybe we're not meant to know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Maybe we're not meant to know? They are much better than they once were; especially with temperature...but precip is still a big problem; the main reason being related to what you say; all the processes that sort of drive the weather are not entirely understood by the people who develop the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 It is really quite amazing; how a half century after they put a man on the moon; they still cannot develop a sufficiently adequate numerical weather model to get the forecast right beyond a couple of days...That wouldn't make it dramatic enough. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 noticed the HRRR has ticked a county or two north in the last run. also..this has jumped quite a bit north Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 That wouldn't make it dramatic enough. The only problem being; the *bad* surprises outnumber the *good* surprises about 20:1...if it were the other way around, I might agree with you. Of course if you loathe the snow; those numbers would be reversed. Perspective is very important... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 noticed the HRRR has ticked a county or two north in the last run. also..this has jumped quite a bit north HRDPS is RGEM-LAM...it is just a mesoscale version of RGEM. But it is the best short range model there is; as I wrote somewhere in time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2018 Report Share Posted January 11, 2018 Watching radar, I'm gonna go ahead and say expect further North trends. I wouldn't be surprised if the band clips Lancaster/Sarpy. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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