February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The northern half of eastern wa reminds me most of Colorado

Well, though not to the extent of WA, CO landscape/terrain is quite varied. If you're just talking about the Front Range, I would say Leavenworth area is fairly similar to the foothills here. As you get east of Denver, it's somewhat similar to the southern half of eastern WA, except even flatter.

 

I would actually say the western slope of Colorado is more similar to a lot of areas in eastern WA like Ellensburg, Yakima, Wenatchee.

 

This is the area near Grand Junction, the largest city on the Western Slope.

 

[TT-SEA]

The EPS shows a really ugly progression in the 10 - 15 day period...

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

Holy cow.

 

[BLI snowman]

Holy cow.

 

 

 

It needs to go back to Phase 8.

 

Late February is going to be just shockingly frigid.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS did quite well with the current pattern 15 days ago.

 

Here was the blended 5-day mean of EPS when day 15 was today... the morning of January 20th.  

 

 

 

And here is the actual map from this morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

It needs to go back to Phase 8.

 

Late February is going to be just shockingly frigid.

 

Is that an actual prediction?

[Phil]

The EPS shows a really ugly progression in the 10 - 15 day period...

I don’t see much of a “progression” there. Just a model floundering like a fish out of water, as the TPV decelerates right as the surf zone moves into Eurasia following the Barents Sea wavebreak (which will extend the east-Asian jet again).

 

Enjoy the model whiplash!

[HighlandExperience]

What part of Colorado?

 

The eastern part of Colorado is completely flat and basically treeless... there is a small transition zone near the foothills and then its instantly the Rocky Mountains.

Various parts of the interior of Colorado are very similar to the northern half of eastern Washington.

 

A lot of the area around the San Juan range reminds me of the Paysaten wilderness and Selkirk north of Spokane.

[MossMan]

Is that an actual prediction?

2011 redux!

[TT-SEA]

I don’t see much of a “progression” there. Just a model floundering like a fish out of water, as the TPV decelerates right as the surf zone moves into Eurasia following the Barents Sea wavebreak (which will extend the east-Asian jet again).

 

Enjoy the model whiplash!

 

I think at least the cold air is going to retreat northward out of the middle of the country and even southern Canada over the next 2 weeks.

[Phil]

To anyone posting D11-15 model maps right now..

 

:lol:

[Front Ranger]

The EPS did quite well with the current pattern 15 days ago.

 

Here was the blended 5-day mean of EPS when day 15 was today... the morning of January 20th.  

 

 

 

And here is the actual map from this morning...

 

 

Some important differences for your area in that map and the EPS 10 days from now.

[TT-SEA]

To anyone posting D11-15 model maps right now..

 

:lol:

 

Just bored... way too miserable to be outside and the game does not start for 3 hours.

[TT-SEA]

Some important differences for your area in that map and the EPS 10 days from now.

 

 

I was just looking back and scoring the EPS in that post.  Not looking forward.

 

I guess it does look different in 10 days but somehow its still a warm front pattern.    Misty, mild drizzle is misty, mild drizzle.   

[Front Ranger]

Various parts of the interior of Colorado are very similar to the northern half of eastern Washington.

 

A lot of the area around the San Juan range reminds me of the Paysaten wilderness and Selkirk north of Spokane.

 

The San Juans are extremely rugged. Some of the most challenging 14ers are in that range.

[Front Ranger]

Not sure what you mean?    

 

I was just looking back and scoring the EPS in that post.  Not looking forward.

 

You looked forward at the EPS in the previous post. 

[BLI snowman]

Some important differences for your area in that map and the EPS 10 days from now.

 

Yeah, I was going to say. 1000 miles of longitude and a much flatter ridge= Dramatic differences locally. 

 

If Tim's worried about more warm front drizzle then the 10-15 day EPS isn't the best way to establish its propensity to happen.

[TT-SEA]

You looked forward at the EPS in the previous post.

I updated my post. I figured out what you meant.

[BLI snowman]

Is that an actual prediction?

 

I'm feeling some late-month troughing. Nothing special. CA will finally get rain.

[Phil]

I think at least the cold air is going to retreat northward out of the middle of the country and even southern Canada over the next 2 weeks.

Eh, the tropospheric vortex will contract into Greenland for a week (as it usually does when the PV is being ripped to shreds aloft), but much of that zonal/blowtorch look you’re seeing in the clown range is just models struggling w/ AAM budgets.

 

The AO/NAM should start tank during the final 10 days of February, onward.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I was going to say. 1000 miles of longitude and a much flatter ridge= Dramatic differences locally.

 

If Tim's worried about more warm front drizzle then the 10-15 day EPS isn't the best way to establish its propensity to happen.

I did not use the EPS for that... that was earlier when looking at the actual ECMWF operational run surface map which does indeed show a continuing warm front pattern of light rain.

 

And for the record... we are leaving town before day 10 for the rest of the month.

[Phil]

It needs to go back to Phase 8.

 

Late February is going to be just shockingly frigid.

Lol. I’m looking forward to the model whiplash.

 

It’s going to make people’s heads spin.

[TT-SEA]

I'm feeling some late-month troughing. Nothing special. CA will finally get rain.

Feels like this will be the likely progression.

[HighlandExperience]

The San Juans are extremely rugged. Some of the most challenging 14ers are in that range.

The San Juan’s are the closest peaks to the North Cascades in terms of ruggedness. But the surrounding area is quite a bit dryer more open which is similar to the paysaten.

[Phil]

Just bored... way too miserable to be outside and the game does not start for 3 hours.

Same here..32*F with freezing rain/fog and an impending Tom Brady superbowl victory. I’ve had better days.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, the tropospheric vortex will contract into Greenland for a week (as it usually does when the PV is being ripped to shreds aloft), but much of that zonal/blowtorch look you’re seeing in the clown range is just models struggling w/ AAM budgets.

 

The AO/NAM should start tank during the final 10 days of February, onward.

 

I'd love to finally see some sustained cold/active weather. Got a good feeling about late February/early March as well.

[BLI snowman]

I did not use the EPS for that... that was earlier when looking at the actual ECMWF operational run surface map which does indeed show a continuing warm front pattern of light rain.

 

And for the record... we are leaving town before day 10 for the rest of the month.

 

It's possible, but the model flip flops don't lend much credence to any one solution right now. We are due for a pattern shakeup from warm drizzle to warm ridging so I suspect that that's what will happen.

[Front Ranger]

Same here..32*F with freezing rain/fog and an impending Tom Brady superbowl victory. I’ve had better days.

 

Other east coast teams are Brady's Super Bowl kryptonite. I think Philly has a chance. Definitely a better team than the 2007 Giants team that upset the Pats.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a more defined front is pushing through now. I bet the afternoon will be better most places.

 

Boom. I just totally redeemed my January bust.

 

[BLI snowman]

Other east coast teams are Brady's Super Bowl kryptonite. I think Philly has a chance. Definitely a better team than the 2007 Giants team that upset the Pats.

 

I think you just mean the Giants. Pats are 3-0 against the Panthers, Eagles, and Falcons.

[Phil]

I'd love to finally has some sustained cold/active weather. Got a good feeling about late February/early March as well.

I’m with you. I don’t even want a cold/snowy pattern in my backyard. Just a stormy one across the nation to wipe out the drought across the Plains/4-Corners region, before heat dome season starts.

 

And obviously, getting rid of that Baffin Bay vortex of doom is the most important thing. It’s kept the northern jet and baroclinic zone retracted to the NE all winter, which works constructively with the expanded EPAC Hadley Cell and warm subtropical SSTAs there.

[TT-SEA]

Boom. I just totally redeemed my January bust.

 

Screenshot_1.png

 

 

Wow... had not noticed that yet!    Very nice.

[Front Ranger]

I think you just mean the Giants. Pats are 3-0 against the Panthers, Eagles, and Falcons.

 

I meant Northeast. 1-2 against other northeast teams in the Bowl. 

 

Eagles have a shot.

[Phil]

Other east coast teams are Brady's Super Bowl kryptonite. I think Philly has a chance. Definitely a better team than the 2007 Giants team that upset the Pats.

All week I’ve had a weird hunch that the Pats will lose tonight. It goes against all logic, though, so I’m trying reverse psychology to soften the blow.

[MossMan]

Boom. I just totally redeemed my January bust.

 

Screenshot_1.png

Not like that up here just yet...still dribbling and dark.

[Phil]

It’s already starting, lol. Only gets worse from here:

 

[kokaneekidz]

All week I’ve had a weird hunch that the Pats will lose tonight. It goes against all logic, though, so I’m trying reverse psychology to soften the blow.

I will be rooting for the only birds on the field. The great Bald Eagles!!!

[Deweydog]

Lol. I’m looking forward to the model whiplash.

 

It’s going to make people’s heads spin.

After a season of what has been pretty much wall to wall model success in the long range this is really gonna **** with people.

[kokaneekidz]

It’s already starting, lol. Only gets worse from here:

 

Good maybe we can trick our way into cold and snow. Beg , steal, or borrow. Take whatever we can get

[Phil]

From Dr. Amy Butler, surface temperature effects following all SSW events on record (middle graphic). Using the JRA55 dataset.

 

Warming over Greenland/North Africa, cooling pretty much everywhere else above 30N.