February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Dan the Weatherman]

SoCal better start getting some precipitation this month..February is their climatological prime time. It’s also one of the driest months across the continental US, with tropical moisture very limited.

 

Do you foresee anything changing later this month that will finally lead to rain in Socal? This has been one of the worst rainy seasons I have ever seen down here, and I have lived here all my life.

[Sometimesdylan]

It's been unusually dry up here for the last two weeks.

 

My highlight for January was being in Haines, AK and seeing my car read 60 degrees in mid January. That is warm, not sure if it was as warm as the car was saying though. Currently sitting at 18f, wind 15mph with gusts of 22.  

[tomas]

                                          

 

 

                                     

 

                             

 

Forecasters believe the ongoing weak-to-moderate La Niña is currently peaking and will weaken into the spring.   

 

 

                                               
    
           
                   

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The models continue to be generally fugly. I'm going to wait until Monday to look again.

[tomas]

Notable changes w/ solar activity now. AP index is tanking and the fluctuations have decreased substantially. I think this might be the real move into solar minimum conditions.

 

 

 

                                                

 

                                                        

 

 

      

  

 

[MossMan]

Drizzle!

[MossMan]

Looks amazing up at the pass, Tim I hope your kids are taking advantage of the epic powder up there!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m sick, it’s 48 and drizzling and I am going to a funeral. Going to be an epic day.

[TT-SEA]

Looks amazing up at the pass, Tim I hope your kids are taking advantage of the epic powder up there!

Disgusting.

[Phil]

 

 

 

 

The solar/climate connection is considerably more complex (and much longer term) than is implied by that graphic. The ocean/atmosphere system is loaded with thermal inertia/capacity, and much like pot of water on a stove, the system temperature can lag that of external solar forcing (or any radiative forcing) by several decades when the equilibration temperature and system temperature are in disagreement (like now).

[Guest happ]

SoCal better start getting some precipitation this month..February is their climatological prime time. It’s also one of the driest months across the continental US, with tropical moisture very limited.

 

 

Interesting that Feb is rainiest month in the South/ mid South.  

[van city]

12z Euro?

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro?

 

12Z ECMWF surface map shows that the high temperatures on Friday stay just below 50.   I guess that is considering scoring this winter.  

 

Warm front drizzle shown for next Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s.   That will be very interesting.

[HighlandExperience]

12Z ECMWF surface map shows that the high temperatures on Friday stay just below 50.   I guess that is considering scoring this winter.  

 

Warm front drizzle shown for next Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s.   That will be very interesting.

 

Remember when the EURO was showing epic cold and snow this weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

Remember when the EURO was showing epic cold and snow this weekend. 

 

It once showed an arctic front for tomorrow with temperatures crashing into the 20s and snow falling.   I am still hopeful that the 00Z run tonight will bring that back!  

[HighlandExperience]

It once showed an arctic front for tomorrow with temperatures crashing into the 20s and snow falling.   I am still hopeful that the 00Z run tonight will bring that back!  

 

Ugh that is just sad. I wonder how snowwizard is doing. 

 

I guess the best we can hope for is a late Feb early March snowstorm. I suppose that is possible considering it snowed in early November. 

[TT-SEA]

One thing for sure... the nice weather next weekend has disappeared in the models.

 

Cold air backs off... ridging backs off... and nature seems intent on keeping daily light rain and drizzle going for as far out as we can see.   Does not get much worse considering there very little snow shown for the mountains over the next week.  

[MossMan]

[HighlandExperience]

One thing for sure... the nice weather next weekend has disappeared in the models.

 

Cold air backs off... ridging backs off... and nature seems intent on keeping daily light rain and drizzle going for as far out as we can see.   Does not get much worse considering there very little snow shown for the mountains over the next week.  

 

Ya it looks pathetic at the pass today. Was banking on at least having nice weather late next week. Lets hope that changes... Feels like it has been cloudy pretty much every day for the past month. 

[Front Ranger]

One thing for sure... the nice weather next weekend has disappeared in the models.

 

Cold air backs off... ridging backs off... and nature seems intent on keeping daily light rain and drizzle going for as far out as we can see.   Does not get much worse considering there very little snow shown for the mountains over the next week.  

 

At least 2 of the next 7-8 days don't look that bad.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Drizzle!

Drizzle in the morning MossMan muddy paw warning.

[TT-SEA]

At least 2 of the next 7-8 days don't look that bad.

Thrilling.

[Dan the Weatherman]

One thing for sure... the nice weather next weekend has disappeared in the models.

 

Cold air backs off... ridging backs off... and nature seems intent on keeping daily light rain and drizzle going for as far out as we can see.   Does not get much worse considering there very little snow shown for the mountains over the next week.  

 

We really need a deep trough over the west that brings widespread low elevation rains and beneficial mountain snow from the PNW to Socal.

[MossMan]

I think we would have been much better off with a weak El Niño.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why are some people bothered so much by the rain? This is what it does in winter here. The people that are not native are affected more it seems. 

[MossMan]

Why are some people bothered so much by the rain? This is what it does in winter here. The people that are not native are affected more it seems.

I’m native...40+ Years. I just like active or sun. A rotation between drizzle, light rain, and occasional moderate rain with a temp between 41 and 49 degrees day after day after day is vomit worthy in my book. Thankfully the summers have been excellent during our active winter weather drought of the last 5yrs.

[TT-SEA]

Hopped over the pass... hiking and wine tasting in Ellensburg. Sunny and almost 60 here. About the same as driving to Everett for us.

 

Sun was peaking through at Snoqualmie Summit... looked like April.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I believe we will have an epic winter with our next/next neutral year. Going to be a winter to remember.

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny and 68 north of Eugene

[MossMan]

Sunny and 68 north of Eugene

Now that sounds lovely!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hopped over the pass... hiking and wine tasting in Ellensburg. Sunny and almost 60 here. About the same as driving to Everett for us.

 

Sun was peaking through at Snoqualmie Summit... looked like April.

 

Up to 18 days with measureable rain here now, might as well get some interesting stats out of this otherwise dull pattern. Still have a ways to go to catch up with the 25 day stretch of rainy days in November   

[Front Ranger]

Thrilling.

 

Didn't say it was. But you made it sound like nothing but non-stop drizzle/rain for the foreseeable future...not the case.

 

18z has everyone dry Friday and Saturday. And only areas north of Seattle look like they get much rain at all on Tue/Wed.

[Front Ranger]

High of 5 forecast for Minneapolis tomorrow. No doubt the coldest any host city has ever been on Super Bowl Sunday.

[MossMan]

High of 5 forecast for Minneapolis tomorrow. No doubt the coldest any host city has ever been on Super Bowl Sunday.

Too bad they are not playing outside! Could have been a repeat of the Seattle/Minnesota playoff game of a few years ago!

[TT-SEA]

Didn't say it was. But you made it sound like nothing but non-stop drizzle/rain for the foreseeable future...not the case.

 

18z has everyone dry Friday and Saturday. And only areas north of Seattle look like they get much rain at all on Tue/Wed.

I said the pattern is seemingly stuck. And it is.

[TT-SEA]

Dinner in Cle Elum... and then we have drive back into the endless rain. It was awesome to get into the full sunshine and blue sky today... sun was shining brightly just 30 minutes from home.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It really feels like winters keep getting worse and worse. Good snowy ones seem further and further spread out compared to when I was young. Gotta wonder if there will ever be any lowland snow south of PDX over the next decade?

 

Last year will have to hold us over because this is the first year I have lived here where it never even came close. Only other year I remember this bad was 02-03. 850 thicknesses never dropped below 528 that year either and this year hasn't even dropped below 534 Salem south.

[Deweydog]

00z!

[BLI snowman]

It really feels like winters keep getting worse and worse. Good snowy ones seem further and further spread out compared to when I was young. Gotta wonder if there will ever be any lowland snow south of PDX over the next decade?

 

Last year will have to hold us over because this is the first year I have lived here where it never even came close. Only other year I remember this bad was 02-03. 850 thicknesses never dropped below 528 that year either and this year hasn't even dropped below 534 Salem south.

Interesting, I had been under the impression that this had been a fairly decent winter in Monmouth.