February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z!

 

Best run in hours!

[TT-SEA]

A couple pictures from one of the wineries in Ellensburg this afternoon... the contrast in dormancy over there is striking but the weather was gorgeous and warm.  

 

 

[Phil]

Woah mama..850s approach -50C @ 132hrs over Quebec, with surface temperatures close to -70*F over Greenland.

 

 

[MossMan]

Woah mama..850s approach -50C @ 132hrs over Quebec, with surface temperatures close to -70*F over Greenland.

 

 

 

Brrr...for them. 46 degree drizzle for us!

[HighlandExperience]

Woah mama..850s approach -50C @ 132hrs over Quebec, with surface temperatures close to -70*F over Greenland.

 

 

What’s the big deal? That’s not on our side of the globe.

[MossMan]

Moderate rain since about 2pm...we are slowly drowning up here.

[Timmy]

What’s the big deal? That’s not on our side of the globe.

Neither is phil

[Phil]

What’s the big deal? That’s not on our side of the globe.

Weather happens everywhere. And perhaps most importantly, the weather that happens elsewhere can affect the weather in your backyard.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS shows dry weather starting on Friday for about 8 or 9 days.   Believe it when I see it.  

[Timmy]

The gem is pretty darn cold at day 5. Worlds different than the gfs.

 

And looks really decent at day 10

[Phil]

The manifesting tracers suggest the NAM (AO) will tank during the third week of February, following the SSW.

 

I feel bad for the models right now. Going to be a brutal stretch for them.

[umadbro]

Enjoying this early warmth. Outdoor batting cages followed by fishing. Its spring time fellas and the 00z gfs agrees.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Woah mama..850s approach -50C @ 132hrs over Quebec, with surface temperatures close to -70*F over Greenland.

 

 

Yikes, would that be an all time record low temperature for them?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not weather related, it felt like a shockwave hit the house this evening; looks like it was a relatively shallow 3.2 quake just to the NE of here in the Gulf Islands.

[TT-SEA]

A nippy 52 here this morning... woke up to rain pounding on the roof. 42 at the pass now with heavy rain. There was lots of ponding on the road up there last night. We also saw many roaring waterfalls of melting snow when we came through earlier in the daylight. That is common in April and May up there.

[Front Ranger]

A couple pictures from one of the wineries in Ellensburg this afternoon... the contrast in dormancy over there is striking but the weather was gorgeous and warm.

 

 

Bleh.

[TT-SEA]

Bleh.

Yeah... looks like the front range of Colorado in many ways.

 

I prefer the landscape on this side but like being able to get to reliable sunshine quickly over there.

[weatherfan2012]

The manifesting tracers suggest the NAM (AO) will tank during the third week of February, following the SSW.

I feel bad for the models right now. Going to be a brutal stretch for them.

this has been a brutal winter for the models as a whole not a good fall winter period by them by any stretch of the imagination that for sure.but if this ssw does varfi it maybe good in the longer term we need some sort of shake up in what has been a persistent regem since 2012 it like watching groundhogs day on a mean map lol for the past 6 years or so.

[MossMan]

The precip has moved just to the north of me finally! Think I might pull the jetski out and have some fun in my driveway...

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah... looks like the front range of Colorado in many ways.

 

I prefer the landscape on this side but like being able to get to reliable sunshine quickly over there.

 

Was just about to say the same thing. Much of eastern WA reminds me of Colorado. 

[MossMan]

Nevermind...it’s dumping again.

[TT-SEA]

Nevermind...it’s dumping again.

 

Yeah... these warm fronts are interesting.   When the radar shows strong returns over me then visibility is improved and the wind is light but when it looks like the rain has moved out then it immediately turns into heavy, wind swept mist with very low visibility.   Take your pick... but the precip never stops here.

 

The Tiger Mountain traffic cam shows this well... there is nothing on the radar over this area right now.   This is the wind swept, heavy mist phase...

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah... looks like the front range of Colorado in many ways.

 

I prefer the landscape on this side but like being able to get to reliable sunshine quickly over there.

I dont like that area for 2 reasons. To windy and not many trees.

[TT-SEA]

I dont like that area for 2 reasons. To windy and not many trees.

 

I agree on the wind... it seems like its always windy there.

 

It was quite windy yesterday right in town but it was basically calm south of town on our hike.    I think the wind is funneled right down I-90 like it does in offshore flow situations in North Bend... but if you get out of the funnel then its much more calm and the sunny weather is more enjoyable.  

[Bryant]

What’s the big deal? That’s not on our side of the globe.

1950!

[kokaneekidz]

12z gfs has turned markedly colder in 5 days and way colder with deep deep wraparound trough out 12 days.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/npac/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_npac_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[kokaneekidz]

the 06z showed positive 850mb temps now negative 3 . A nice improvement closer to GEM>

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/npac/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_npac_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF shows basically the same pattern even 10 days out... major cold over the center of Canada while leaving us caught between the ridge to the south and the cold to the northeast in a perpetual warm front pattern.     Totally crap.   This pattern has been so hard to break.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ECMWF shows basically the same pattern even 10 days out... major cold over the center of Canada while leaving us caught between the ridge to the south and the cold to the northeast in a perpetual warm front pattern. Totally crap. This pattern has been so hard to break.

 

Seems to have been the theme of the past year. Persistent patterns that won't change.

[TT-SEA]

Seems to have been the theme of the past year. Persistent patterns that won't change.

 

I know I will be accused of looking past some sort of improvement at 5 days... but its minor and really just provides a day or two break in the rain (if it even happens).   The real surprising thing to me is that this same ugly pattern pops right back up again and it seems almost inevitable based on how things have gone over the last month.  

[Phil]

The ECMWF shows basically the same pattern even 10 days out... major cold over the center of Canada while leaving us caught between the ridge to the south and the cold to the northeast in a perpetual warm front pattern. Totally crap. This pattern has been so hard to break.

 

I think the SSW will kill it off during the final 10 days of February. It’s common to get a tightening of the bottom half of the TPV before it self-destructs.

 

Globally, the storm track starts shifting equatorward during the third week of the month (on all guidance), with a retraction of the Hadley Cell networks starting around February 20th. While it will depend on the exact evolution of the SSW/tropics, this could actually be a bigger system wide shake up than 2013 was, based on the early evidence.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... looks like the front range of Colorado in many ways.

 

I prefer the landscape on this side but like being able to get to reliable sunshine quickly over there.

More trees around here.

[TT-SEA]

More trees around here.

Same general brown landscape though... and there areas around there with more trees.

[Front Ranger]

1950!

Still paying for it!

[Front Ranger]

Same general brown landscape though... and there areas around there with more trees.

It is very brown around here during the fall/winter (when there is no snow). That's part of why spring is my favorite season here... everything finally turns green and the weather is the most active.

 

But with the Rockies basically right in our backyard and significantly more trees, I wouldn't say the landscape of the Front Range is all that similar to much of eastern WA. We go basically straight from the flatness of the Great plains to the mountains, not much I'm the way of rolling hills like you see around Ellensburg, etc.

[MossMan]

Well at least the dogs don’t really care that we are slowly drowning.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... these warm fronts are interesting. When the radar shows strong returns over me then visibility is improved and the wind is light but when it looks like the rain has moved out then it immediately turns into heavy, wind swept mist with very low visibility. Take your pick... but the precip never stops here.

 

The Tiger Mountain traffic cam shows this well... there is nothing on the radar over this area right now. This is the wind swept, heavy mist phase...

 

 

Looks like a more defined front is pushing through now. I bet the afternoon will be better most places.

[HighlandExperience]

[HighlandExperience]

It is very brown around here during the fall/winter (when there is no snow). That's part of why spring is my favorite season here... everything finally turns green and the weather is the most active.

 

But with the Rockies basically right in our backyard and significantly more trees, I wouldn't say the landscape of the Front Range is all that similar to much of eastern WA. We go basically straight from the flatness of the Great plains to the mountains, not much I'm the way of rolling hills like you see around Ellensburg, etc.

The northern half of eastern wa reminds me most of Colorado

[TT-SEA]

The northern half of eastern wa reminds me most of Colorado

What part of Colorado?

 

The eastern part of Colorado is completely flat and basically treeless... there is a small transition zone near the foothills and then its instantly the Rocky Mountains.