Dan the Weatherman Posted June 29, 2014 Report Share Posted June 29, 2014 The seasonal shift to higher dewpoints [60+] is occurring. With warmer day temps, it is starting to feel like July. SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [ele 6314] : 81 / 35DEATH VALLEY [ele -194] : 116 / 84 86 / 66It has definitely been more humid the last few days, but at least the temperatures are still comfortable as we end June. It looks as if the heat will be building next week just in time for the Fourth, and possibly some monsoon moisture next weekend. I think the warmer than normal SSTs just off our coast has been responsible for the increased humidity of late and that will probably be the case for a good deal of this summer unless there is some serious upwelling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted June 29, 2014 Report Share Posted June 29, 2014 It has definitely been more humid the last few days, but at least the temperatures are still comfortable as we end June. It looks as if the heat will be building next week just in time for the Fourth, and possibly some monsoon moisture next weekend. I think the warmer than normal SSTs just off our coast has been responsible for the increased humidity of late and that will probably be the case for a good deal of this summer unless there is some serious upwelling. An important signal are dew points in the low desert; note Mexicali 10AM Temp/ DP PALM DESERT 93 / 62 IMPERIAL 89 / 67 MEXICALI 88 / 72 Ocean water temps impact stratus formation and minimum temps to some degree. Current measurements are consistent with conditions for several months and not too out of sync with normal readings for early July [69-73°] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted June 30, 2014 Report Share Posted June 30, 2014 SO. LAKE TAHOE : 88 / 40DEATH VALLEY : 120 / 89 87 / 66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted June 30, 2014 Report Share Posted June 30, 2014 Two tropical storms off Mexico's west coast, Douglas and Elida, per the National Hurricane Center; both storms are forecast to drift westward and weaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted June 30, 2014 Report Share Posted June 30, 2014 It still appears a warming trend will take place this weekend, however, the models have backed off on the amount of monsoonal moisture forecast. It is still early in the season, and there will be plenty of opportunities for monsoonal activity as we get later into the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 1, 2014 Report Share Posted July 1, 2014 June was slightly below normal; no heat waves which meant no significant wild fires in a severe drought year. Of-course, no rain. June 2014 Aver Max: 83.0 / Normal: 84Aver Min: 62.1 / Normal: 63Mean: 72 / Normal: 73.5 Hi Max: 90Lo Max: 78 Hi Min: 67Lo Min: 58 Rain: 0.00Rain Year [jul-jun]: 6.19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 1, 2014 Report Share Posted July 1, 2014 June was definitely nicer than May as there were no major hot spells and the temperatures were near average. The only thing different was that the marine layer was less prevalent than normal, especially during the first half of the month when it is usually more overcast. Once again a spring that featured extreme temperature spikes in April and May (especially May this year) led to a fairly normal June as I have seen occur a number of times over the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 2, 2014 Report Share Posted July 2, 2014 Downtown Los Angeles has had back to back rainy seasons of less than 7" for the first time since records have been kept. 2013-14 finished with a paltry 6.08", while 2012-13 finished with 5.85". During the entire 20th Century, there have been only 3 seasons with less than 7" for downtown L.A.: 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61. This century has already had 4 such seasons: 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. This is a very alarming trend to say the least that we have had this many ultra-dry seasons in such a short time period. I seriously hope this isn't a beginning of a drier regime for CA and that more normal rainfall years return shortly. Dry winters are not rare for Socal, but years with less than 7" like we have been experiencing lately are rare for much of the Los Angeles area, but are somewhat more common toward San Diego. The last 3 years have reminded me the most of the 1958-59 to 1960-61 time period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 2, 2014 Report Share Posted July 2, 2014 Downtown Los Angeles has had back to back rainy seasons of less than 7" for the first time since records have been kept. 2013-14 finished with a paltry 6.08", while 2012-13 finished with 5.85". During the entire 20th Century, there have been only 3 seasons with less than 7" for downtown L.A.: 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61. This century has already had 4 such seasons: 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. This is a very alarming trend to say the least that we have had this many ultra-dry seasons in such a short time period. I seriously hope this isn't a beginning of a drier regime for CA and that more normal rainfall years return shortly. Dry winters are not rare for Socal, but years with less than 7" like we have been experiencing lately are rare for much of the Los Angeles area, but are somewhat more common toward San Diego. The last 3 years have reminded me the most of the 1958-59 to 1960-61 time period. Thanks for the info on the serious lack of rainfall; hopefully this new rain year won't be a repeat of the last two. SO LAKE TAHOE : 90 / 47DEATH VALLEY : 125 / 89 85 / 66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 2, 2014 Report Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thanks for the info on the serious lack of rainfall; hopefully this new rain year won't be a repeat of the last two. SO LAKE TAHOE : 90 / 47DEATH VALLEY : 125 / 89 85 / 66I believe as long as we get at least a moderate El Nino, we will have a wetter year. It is the weak El Nino and/or ENSO neutral situation that I am most worried about at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 2, 2014 Report Share Posted July 2, 2014 Dan, is there historic precedent for another year of drought? The air is becoming more humid every day; I think we will start to see cumulus build-ups over the mountains in the next few days. Sometimes those thunderstorms can spread out over the lowlands [san Gabriel Valley] even though the actual rainfall is sparse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 3, 2014 Report Share Posted July 3, 2014 Quite warm/ hot inland, depending on distance from the Pacific. SO LAKE TAHOE : 87 / 45DEATH VALLEY : 123 / 92 86 / 65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 3, 2014 Report Share Posted July 3, 2014 Positive heat indexes even west of mountains PASADENA 93 64 38 E3 HX 95RIVER CYN CREST 97 67 37 NW8 HX 101 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 4, 2014 Report Share Posted July 4, 2014 Dan, is there historic precedent for another year of drought? The air is becoming more humid every day; I think we will start to see cumulus build-ups over the mountains in the next few days. Sometimes those thunderstorms can spread out over the lowlands [san Gabriel Valley] even though the actual rainfall is sparse. There has never been a period in which three consecutive rainy seasons of less than 7" apiece occurred in Los Angeles. It is possible to have another drought year next year, but it would likely not be nearly as dry as the last two seasons. If it were to occur, L.A. would probably get between 8-12" as opposed to less than 7". There were other strings of below-normal rainy seasons in Socal during the mid 1940's to the mid 1960's, but they weren't as dry as the 1958-59 to 1960-61 time period in the L.A. area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 4, 2014 Report Share Posted July 4, 2014 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=VIS4.GIF.3.jpg,VIS4.GIF.4.jpg,VIS4.GIF.5.jpg,VIS4.GIF.6.jpg,VIS4.GIF.7.jpg,VIS4.GIF.8.jpg Steady advance of monsoonal moisture knocking on the back door of California ['come on in"] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 4, 2014 Report Share Posted July 4, 2014 SHORT TERM FORECASTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014CAZ048-055-056-042115-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS -THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014.NOW...AT 113 PM...HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINSBETWEEN FOREST FALLS AND YUCAIPA. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARELIKELY WITH THIS NEARLY STATIONARY STORM. OAK GLEN ROAD MAY BEIMPACTED PONDING OF WATER AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Posted July 4, 2014 Report Share Posted July 4, 2014 .80" rain in 20 min. With abundant hail - dime to nickel size, light to moderate rain continuing. Best summer Thunderstorm on this side of the mountain in the 6 years I've lived here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 4, 2014 Report Share Posted July 4, 2014 .80" rain in 20 min. With abundant hail - dime to nickel size, light to moderate rain continuing. Best summer Thunderstorm on this side of the mountain in the 6 years I've lived here!That is definitely a significant thunderstorm and it is very early in the season, too. Boy we were due for something exciting somewhere in Socal after one of the most boring winter seasons I have ever seen in my lifetime! This may be a very good year for summer thunderstorms as there likely will be above-normal tropical activity in the eastern Pacific as long as El Nino continues to develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 5, 2014 Report Share Posted July 5, 2014 Dallas Raines [Channel 7] commented that the monsoon is right on time; almost like clockwork by July 4th. Warm ocean, some dewpoints over 70 are some of the ingredients for summer rainfall.Beach ocean temps 5pmSANTA MONICA BASIN: 72 SAN PEDRO CHANNEL: 71 DANA POINT :73 OCEANSIDE: 74TORREY PINES: 72 SAN DIEGO BAY: 76 SO LAKE TAHOE: 84 / 41DEATH VALLEY: 119 / 92 93 / 67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 5, 2014 Report Share Posted July 5, 2014 We could surely use some summer rainfall (of course not as likely in coastal areas) because parts of Los Angeles and Orange Counties were just downgraded to D4 (exceptional drought status) on the latest Drought Monitor update. This comes as a bit of a surprise to me because I didn't think the drought status could be downgraded during what is climatologically the driest time of the year for the area. BTW I hope everyone has been having a great 4th! It was a clear night here in Orange County for fireworks viewing with no marine layer getting in the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 5, 2014 Report Share Posted July 5, 2014 Lets get a tropical storm to come inland this year! I may be down there in August if it wants to happen then. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 5, 2014 Report Share Posted July 5, 2014 FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA953 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY....MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH TODAY AND PRODUCEWIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BRIEF HEAVYRAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASHFLOODS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.CAZ055-056-058-060>062-060300-/O.NEW.KSGX.FF.A.0003.140705T1653Z-140706T0300Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-953 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS... COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.* UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE RUNOFF THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS...ESPECIALLY BELOW MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN THE DESERT AND IN AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONSHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 6, 2014 Report Share Posted July 6, 2014 NWS_SD reported a gust front this evening so more convection and humidity may reach even the coastline overnight. Isolated storms scattered about today though only afternoon clouds over lowland kept maximum temps in low 90's [93° last 3 days]. SOUTH LAKE TAHOE : 86 / 43DEATH VALLEY : 119 / 93 93/ 69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 Slower day for convection otherwise ditto from yesterday SOUTH LAKE TAHOE : 90 / 42DEATH VALLEY : 119 / 88 93/ 69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 It was in the low 90's here in Orange today too, and still humid despite less in the way of thunderstorm activity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted July 7, 2014 Report Share Posted July 7, 2014 - Good strong options, different main parameters, Vis, IR, and WV: .. animations, for following the "monsoon" activity. — Quite a few at 15 min. intervals. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ …… Basic suggestions: … Start with the fuller "Hemispheric" scope ("Product"), main left side column, and with checking with clicking on both, main "Polar", and "Southern Pacific", 8km. (Mouse over and click.) .. And with then through the "Product Menu", top center, selecting whichever main parameter, together with number of images. / — "Water Vapor" probably the most interesting. .. And then doing the same, where and with working down through the different main and more narrowered scopes ("Products"), e.g. "Regional"[6km], 2km, and 1km, also left column, side. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 8, 2014 Report Share Posted July 8, 2014 The sign of the season is the build up of cumulus to the east over the mountains and stratus off the coast, higher humidity. Couldn't find any precipitation across California today other than a few hundred of an inch around the Colorado River. SO LAKE TAHOE : 88 / 47DEATH VALLEY : 119 / 85 92 / 69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 FLASH FLOOD WARNINGAZC015-CAC071-090500-/O.NEW.KVEF.FF.W.0022.140709T0203Z-140709T0500Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV703 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA... EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...* UNTIL 1000 PM MST/1000 PM PDT/* AT 701 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF OATMAN...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF YUCCA. THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OATMAN AND GOLDEN VALLEY.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144AND 155.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN ARIZONA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 47. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 9, 2014 Report Share Posted July 9, 2014 SO LAKE TAHOE: 86 / 61 / TDEATH VALLEY: 118 / 90 90/ 68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Weak Pacific trough is kicking up a marine layer so slight cool down is in effect. Warm ocean temps/ high dew points kept minimums above 70° downtown/ Santa Monica this morning. Should be slightly cooler tonight. SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [ele: 6314] : 87 / 48DEATH VALLEY [ele: -194] : 119 / 93 Check out today's maximums; monsoonal clouds can make July cooler than June in the desert. N LAS VEGAS ARPT [2203] : 92 / 75PHOENIX DEER VALLEY [1476] : 98 / 81 88/ 68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 We could be in for some interesting weather around next Monday as an easterly wave rides around the 4 Corners High from Baja into Socal. This could provide the needed dynamics for some thunderstorm activity west of the mountains and there could even be some nocturnal convection on Monday night. The following is from tonight's San Diego WFO AFD:BY MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SIMILAR TO THE 4TH OF JULY. IN ADDITIONAN INVERTED UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA AND FAR EAST PACIFIC RIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS BRINGS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODEST DYNAMICS ON MONDAY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SPREADS WEST AND NORTH OF LA THROUGH TUESDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARMING TREND AND THEN GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE MONSOON PUSH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER (ESPECIALLY INLAND) BUT MUGGY AIR MASS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 10, 2014 Report Share Posted July 10, 2014 Weak Pacific trough is kicking up a marine layer so slight cool down is in effect. Warm ocean temps/ high dew points kept minimums above 70° downtown/ Santa Monica this morning. Should be slightly cooler tonight. SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [ele: 6314] : 87 / 48DEATH VALLEY [ele: -194] : 119 / 93 Check out today's maximums; monsoonal clouds can make July cooler than June in the desert. N LAS VEGAS ARPT [2203] : 92 / 75PHOENIX DEER VALLEY [1476] : 98 / 81 88/ 68It is certainly true that June and the very first part of July are often the hottest for the desert regions before the monsoonal flow increases in early to mid July on into early September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 11, 2014 Report Share Posted July 11, 2014 Nice day; should be back in the 90's soon. SO LAKE TAHOE : 83 / 48 / TDEATH VALLEY : 115 / 93 87 / 66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 12, 2014 Report Share Posted July 12, 2014 Last day of cool/ slightly below normal temps but I look forward to the tropical wave in a day or 2 even if it is hot. SO LAKE TAHOE [ele 6314]: 80 / 56DEATH VALLEY [ele -194]: 114 / 87 86/ 64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 12, 2014 Report Share Posted July 12, 2014 Last day of cool/ slightly below normal temps but I look forward to the tropical wave in a day or 2 even if it is hot. SO LAKE TAHOE [ele 6314]: 80 / 56DEATH VALLEY [ele -194]: 114 / 87 86/ 64I am looking forward to that as well, so that we may have a chance at some interesting weather for a change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 12, 2014 Report Share Posted July 12, 2014 Infraredhttp://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=IR4.GIF.3.jpg,IR4.GIF.4.jpg,IR4.GIF.5.jpg,IR4.GIF.6.jpg,IR4.GIF.7.jpg,IR4.GIF.8.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 13, 2014 Report Share Posted July 13, 2014 Aside from some high clouds and modest dewpoints, the monsoonal moisture is still across the border in Arizona. SO LAKE TAHOE : 86 / 49DEATH VALLEY : 118 / 84 86 / 64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 Convective activity stayed to the east of the area but tomorrow could be more interesting. Little muggy but, overall a pleasant day. SO LAKE TAHOE: 91 / 51DEATH VALLEY: 126 / 83 89 / 68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 14, 2014 Report Share Posted July 14, 2014 There appears to be quite a bit of thunderstorm activity in southern AZ and northern Mexico south of Phoenix with the easterly wave that is moving in this direction. There is even a 20% chance of showers / t-storms west of the mountains tomorrow. One thing is for sure, it is going to be muggy. I hope there is some excitement tomorrow since the potential is certainly there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted July 15, 2014 Report Share Posted July 15, 2014 There was quite a bit of mid-level cloudiness here in Orange today until late this afternoon when the sun came out. There were a few sprinkles (big drops) this morning and early afternoon, but it wasn't enough to wet the ground. Later this afternoon it was partly cloudy with more cloudiness to the east and was quite a nice breeze coming from the east and/or southeast that kept the temperatures rather comfortable this afternoon. Normally in a pattern with a ESE to SE flow like this it is quite hot and muggy especially when it is sunnier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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