California Weather/ Climate

[Dan the Weatherman]

The seasonal shift to higher dewpoints [60+] is occurring.  With warmer day temps, it is starting to feel like July.   

 

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE  [ele 6314] :  81 /  35

DEATH VALLEY [ele -194] : 116 /  84

 

 

86 / 66

It has definitely been more humid the last few days, but at least the temperatures are still comfortable as we end June. It looks as if the heat will be building next week just in time for the Fourth, and possibly some monsoon moisture next weekend. I think the warmer than normal SSTs just off our coast has been responsible for the increased humidity of late and that will probably be the case for a good deal of this summer unless there is some serious upwelling.

[Guest happ]

It has definitely been more humid the last few days, but at least the temperatures are still comfortable as we end June. It looks as if the heat will be building next week just in time for the Fourth, and possibly some monsoon moisture next weekend. I think the warmer than normal SSTs just off our coast has been responsible for the increased humidity of late and that will probably be the case for a good deal of this summer unless there is some serious upwelling.

 

An important signal are dew points in the low desert; note Mexicali

 

10AM Temp/ DP        

PALM DESERT  93  / 62 

IMPERIAL  89 /  67             

MEXICALI  88 / 72 

 

 

Ocean water temps impact stratus formation and minimum temps to some degree.  Current measurements are consistent with conditions for several months and not too out of sync with normal readings for early July [69-73°]

[Guest happ]

SO. LAKE TAHOE :  88 /  40

DEATH VALLEY :  120 /  89

 

87 / 66

[Guest happ]

Two tropical storms off Mexico's west coast, Douglas and Elida, per the National Hurricane Center; both storms are forecast to drift westward and weaken.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It still appears a warming trend will take place this weekend, however, the models have backed off on the amount of monsoonal moisture forecast. It is still early in the season, and there will be plenty of opportunities for monsoonal activity as we get later into the summer.

[Guest happ]

June was slightly below normal; no heat waves which meant no significant wild fires in a severe drought year.  Of-course, no rain. 

 

 

June 2014

 

Aver Max: 83.0 / Normal: 84

Aver Min: 62.1 / Normal: 63

Mean: 72 / Normal: 73.5

 

Hi Max: 90

Lo Max: 78

 

Hi Min: 67

Lo Min: 58

 

Rain: 0.00

Rain Year [jul-jun]: 6.19

[Dan the Weatherman]

June was definitely nicer than May as there were no major hot spells and the temperatures were near average. The only thing different was that the marine layer was less prevalent than normal, especially during the first half of the month when it is usually more overcast. Once again a spring that featured extreme temperature spikes in April and May (especially May this year) led to a fairly normal June as I have seen occur a number of times over the years.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Downtown Los Angeles has had back to back rainy seasons of less than 7" for the first time since records have been kept. 2013-14 finished with a paltry 6.08", while 2012-13 finished with 5.85". During the entire 20th Century, there have been only 3 seasons with less than 7" for downtown L.A.: 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61. This century has already had 4 such seasons: 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. This is a very alarming trend to say the least that we have had this many ultra-dry seasons in such a short time period. I seriously hope this isn't a beginning of a drier regime for CA and that more normal rainfall years return shortly. Dry winters are not rare for Socal, but years with less than 7" like we have been experiencing lately are rare for much of the Los Angeles area, but are somewhat more common toward San Diego. The last 3 years have reminded me the most of the 1958-59 to 1960-61 time period.

[Guest happ]

Downtown Los Angeles has had back to back rainy seasons of less than 7" for the first time since records have been kept. 2013-14 finished with a paltry 6.08", while 2012-13 finished with 5.85". During the entire 20th Century, there have been only 3 seasons with less than 7" for downtown L.A.: 1923-24, 1958-59, and 1960-61. This century has already had 4 such seasons: 2001-02, 2006-07, 2012-13, and 2013-14. This is a very alarming trend to say the least that we have had this many ultra-dry seasons in such a short time period. I seriously hope this isn't a beginning of a drier regime for CA and that more normal rainfall years return shortly. Dry winters are not rare for Socal, but years with less than 7" like we have been experiencing lately are rare for much of the Los Angeles area, but are somewhat more common toward San Diego. The last 3 years have reminded me the most of the 1958-59 to 1960-61 time period.

 

Thanks for the info on the serious lack of rainfall; hopefully this new rain year won't be a repeat of the last two.

 

SO LAKE TAHOE :  90 /  47

DEATH VALLEY :  125 /  89

 

85 / 66

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thanks for the info on the serious lack of rainfall; hopefully this new rain year won't be a repeat of the last two.

 

SO LAKE TAHOE :  90 /  47

DEATH VALLEY :  125 /  89

 

85 / 66

I believe as long as we get at least a moderate El Nino, we will have a wetter year. It is the weak El Nino and/or ENSO neutral situation that I am most worried about at this point.

[Guest happ]

Dan, is there historic precedent for another year of drought?

 

The air is becoming more humid every day; I think we will start to see cumulus build-ups over the mountains in the next few days.  Sometimes those thunderstorms can spread out over the lowlands [san Gabriel Valley] even though the actual rainfall is sparse.  

[Guest happ]

Quite warm/ hot inland, depending on distance from the Pacific.

 

SO LAKE TAHOE :  87 /  45

DEATH VALLEY :  123 /  92

 

86 / 65

[Guest happ]

Positive heat indexes even west of mountains

 

PASADENA   93  64  38 E3   HX  95

RIVER CYN CREST  97  67  37 NW8   HX 101          

[Dan the Weatherman]

Dan, is there historic precedent for another year of drought?

 

The air is becoming more humid every day; I think we will start to see cumulus build-ups over the mountains in the next few days.  Sometimes those thunderstorms can spread out over the lowlands [san Gabriel Valley] even though the actual rainfall is sparse.  

 

There has never been a period in which three consecutive rainy seasons of less than 7" apiece occurred in Los Angeles. It is possible to have another drought year next year, but it would likely not be nearly as dry as the last two seasons. If it were to occur, L.A. would probably get between 8-12" as opposed to less than 7". There were other strings of below-normal rainy seasons in Socal during the mid 1940's to the mid 1960's, but they weren't as dry as the 1958-59 to 1960-61 time period in the L.A. area. 

[Guest happ]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=VIS4.GIF.3.jpg,VIS4.GIF.4.jpg,VIS4.GIF.5.jpg,VIS4.GIF.6.jpg,VIS4.GIF.7.jpg,VIS4.GIF.8.jpg

 

Steady advance of monsoonal moisture knocking on the back door of California ['come on in"]

[Guest happ]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

CAZ048-055-056-042115-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS -THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.NOW...

AT 113 PM...HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN FOREST FALLS AND YUCAIPA. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS NEARLY STATIONARY STORM. OAK GLEN ROAD MAY BE
IMPACTED PONDING OF WATER AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
 

[Alan]

.80" rain in 20 min. With abundant hail - dime to nickel size, light to moderate rain continuing. Best summer Thunderstorm on this side of the mountain in the 6 years I've lived here!

[Dan the Weatherman]

.80" rain in 20 min. With abundant hail - dime to nickel size, light to moderate rain continuing. Best summer Thunderstorm on this side of the mountain in the 6 years I've lived here!

That is definitely a significant thunderstorm and it is very early in the season, too. Boy we were due for something exciting somewhere in Socal after one of the most boring winter seasons I have ever seen in my lifetime! This may be a very good year for summer thunderstorms as there likely will be above-normal tropical activity in the eastern Pacific as long as El Nino continues to develop. 

[Guest happ]

Dallas Raines [Channel 7] commented that the monsoon is right on time; almost like clockwork by July 4th.  Warm ocean, some dewpoints over 70 are some of the ingredients for summer rainfall.

Beach ocean temps 5pm

SANTA MONICA BASIN: 72 
SAN PEDRO CHANNEL: 71  
DANA POINT :73   

OCEANSIDE: 74
TORREY PINES: 72 
SAN DIEGO BAY: 76 

 

 

SO LAKE TAHOE:  84 /  41

DEATH VALLEY: 119 /  92

 

93 / 67

[Dan the Weatherman]

We could surely use some summer rainfall (of course not as likely in coastal areas) because parts of Los Angeles and Orange Counties were just downgraded to D4 (exceptional drought status) on the latest Drought Monitor update. This comes as a bit of a surprise to me because I didn't think the drought status could be downgraded during what is climatologically the driest time of the year for the area.

 

BTW I hope everyone has been having a great 4th! It was a clear night here in Orange County for fireworks viewing with no marine layer getting in the way.

[Black Hole]

Lets get a tropical storm to come inland this year! I may be down there in August if it wants to happen then.

[Guest happ]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
953 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY...

.MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH TODAY AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

CAZ055-056-058-060>062-060300-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FF.A.0003.140705T1653Z-140706T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
953 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...
  COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO
  COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS AND SAN DIEGO
  COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

* UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
  RAINFALL TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE RUNOFF THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
  FLOODS...ESPECIALLY BELOW MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN THE DESERT AND IN
  AND BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
 

[Guest happ]

NWS_SD reported a gust front this evening so more convection and humidity may reach even the coastline overnight.  Isolated storms scattered about today though only afternoon clouds over lowland kept maximum temps in low 90's [93° last 3 days].

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE :  86 /  43

DEATH VALLEY :  119 /  93

 

93/ 69  

[Guest happ]

Slower day for convection otherwise ditto from yesterday

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE :  90 /  42

DEATH VALLEY :  119 /  88

 

93/ 69

[Dan the Weatherman]

It was in the low 90's here in Orange today too, and still humid despite less in the way of thunderstorm activity.

[richard mann]

-

 

Good strong options, different main parameters, Vis, IR, and WV: .. animations, for following the "monsoon" activity. 

 

— Quite a few at 15 min. intervals. 

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

 

…… 

 

Basic suggestions: … Start with the fuller "Hemispheric" scope ("Product"), main left side column, and with checking with clicking on both, main "Polar", and "Southern Pacific", 8km. (Mouse over and click.) .. And with then through the "Product Menu", top center, selecting whichever main parameter, together with number of images. / — "Water Vapor" probably the most interesting.

 

.. And then doing the same, where and with working down through the different main and more narrowered scopes ("Products"),  e.g. "Regional"[6km], 2km, and 1km, also left column, side.

[Guest happ]

The sign of the season is the build up of cumulus to the east over the mountains and stratus off the coast, higher humidity.  Couldn't find any precipitation across California today other than a few hundred of an inch around the Colorado River.

 

SO LAKE TAHOE :  88 /  47

DEATH VALLEY :  119 /  85

 

92 / 69

[Guest happ]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AZC015-CAC071-090500-
/O.NEW.KVEF.FF.W.0022.140709T0203Z-140709T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
703 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN
  CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM MST/1000 PM PDT/

* AT 701 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF OATMAN...OR 10
  MILES NORTHWEST OF YUCCA. THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WAS
  NEARLY STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OATMAN AND GOLDEN VALLEY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN CALIFORNIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144
AND 155.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN ARIZONA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 47.
 

[Guest happ]

SO LAKE TAHOE:  86 /  61 /   T

DEATH VALLEY:  118 /  90

 

90/ 68

[Guest happ]

Weak Pacific trough is kicking up a marine layer so slight cool down is in effect.  Warm ocean temps/ high dew points kept minimums above 70° downtown/ Santa Monica this morning.  Should be slightly cooler tonight. 

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [ele: 6314] :   87 /  48

DEATH VALLEY [ele: -194] :  119 /  93

 

Check out today's maximums; monsoonal clouds can make July cooler than June in the desert.

 

N LAS VEGAS ARPT [2203] :  92 /  75

PHOENIX DEER VALLEY [1476] :  98 / 81

 

88/ 68

[Dan the Weatherman]

We could be in for some interesting weather around next Monday as an easterly wave rides around the 4 Corners High from Baja into Socal. This could provide the needed dynamics for some thunderstorm activity west of the mountains and there could even be some nocturnal convection on Monday night. The following is from tonight's San Diego WFO AFD:

BY MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE SIMILAR TO THE 4TH OF JULY. IN ADDITION

AN INVERTED UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA AND FAR EAST PACIFIC RIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS BRINGS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODEST DYNAMICS ON MONDAY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE SPREADS WEST AND NORTH OF LA THROUGH TUESDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARMING TREND AND THEN GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE MONSOON PUSH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER (ESPECIALLY INLAND) BUT MUGGY AIR MASS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Weak Pacific trough is kicking up a marine layer so slight cool down is in effect.  Warm ocean temps/ high dew points kept minimums above 70° downtown/ Santa Monica this morning.  Should be slightly cooler tonight. 

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [ele: 6314] :   87 /  48

DEATH VALLEY [ele: -194] :  119 /  93

 

Check out today's maximums; monsoonal clouds can make July cooler than June in the desert.

 

N LAS VEGAS ARPT [2203] :  92 /  75

PHOENIX DEER VALLEY [1476] :  98 / 81

 

88/ 68

It is certainly true that June and the very first part of July are often the hottest for the desert regions before the monsoonal flow increases in early to mid July on into early September.

[Guest happ]

Nice day; should be back in the 90's soon.

 

SO LAKE TAHOE :  83 /  48 /   T

DEATH VALLEY :  115 /  93

 

87 / 66

[Guest happ]

Last day of cool/ slightly below normal temps but I look forward to the tropical wave in a day or 2 even if it is hot.  

 

SO LAKE TAHOE [ele 6314]:  80 /  56

DEATH VALLEY [ele -194]:  114 /  87

 

86/ 64

[Dan the Weatherman]

Last day of cool/ slightly below normal temps but I look forward to the tropical wave in a day or 2 even if it is hot.  

 

SO LAKE TAHOE [ele 6314]:  80 /  56

DEATH VALLEY [ele -194]:  114 /  87

 

86/ 64

I am looking forward to that as well, so that we may have a chance at some interesting weather for a change.

[Guest happ]

Infrared
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=IR4.GIF.3.jpg,IR4.GIF.4.jpg,IR4.GIF.5.jpg,IR4.GIF.6.jpg,IR4.GIF.7.jpg,IR4.GIF.8.jpg

[Guest happ]

Aside from some high clouds and modest dewpoints, the monsoonal moisture is still across the border in Arizona. 

 

 

SO LAKE TAHOE :  86 /  49

DEATH VALLEY :  118 /  84

 

 

86 / 64

[Guest happ]

Convective activity stayed to the east of the area but tomorrow could be more interesting.  Little muggy but, overall a pleasant day.

 

SO LAKE TAHOE:  91 /  51

DEATH VALLEY:  126 /  83

 

89 / 68

[Dan the Weatherman]

There appears to be quite a bit of thunderstorm activity in southern AZ and northern Mexico south of Phoenix with the easterly wave that is moving in this direction. There is even a 20% chance of showers / t-storms west of the mountains tomorrow. One thing is for sure, it is going to be muggy. I hope there is some excitement tomorrow since the potential is certainly there.

[Dan the Weatherman]

There was quite a bit of mid-level cloudiness here in Orange today until late this afternoon when the sun came out. There were a few sprinkles (big drops) this morning and early afternoon, but it wasn't enough to wet the ground. Later this afternoon it was partly cloudy with more cloudiness to the east and was quite a nice breeze coming from the east and/or southeast that kept the temperatures rather comfortable this afternoon. Normally in a pattern with a ESE to SE flow like this it is quite hot and muggy especially when it is sunnier.