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Guest happ

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Guest happ

There is a flash flood advisory for eastern San Diego county around Borrego Springs.  I couldn't post the advisory to this website for some reason.

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Guest happ

Pretty good amounts of rainfall if one happened to be in the vincity of a thunderstorm [mainly desert and mountain areas].

Per NWS_LA:

PALMDALE
AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUST 7 MINUTES...0.85 INCHES
IN 30 MINUTES...AND A TOTAL OF 0.96 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE DAY SO

 

 

Upper low kept temps some 30 degrees cooler than last week at this time; nice change even if most areas missed any rainfall.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AP [6314] : 61 / 38 / 0.16

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 92 / 67

 

H: 70

L: 57

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Guest happ

Today's 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day outlooks look like a carbon copy of those from yesterday! Ridiculous to say the least.

 

I think I am becoming less reactionary to the NOAA especially since this week has been quite cool in contrast to the previous long-term forecasts.  I look forward to next week's more typical weather [night/ morning low clouds/ hazy afternoons; 70's-low 80's].

 

ULL is moving east through some thunderstorms were reported over high terrain [generally 0.05 or less]. 

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] : 73 / 34

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 102 / 69

 

H: 72

L: 62

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I think we are finally entering a more traditional spring pattern after this upper low moved through. Patterns like this tend to lead to the typical May Gray / June Gloom that Socal is known for this time of year. I am willing to bet that there will not be any more heat waves at least until either the very end of June or early July when the summer pattern becomes established. The warmer weather forecast around Memorial Day is not a heat wave as temperatures are only forecast to be in the 80's as opposed to mid-upper 90's or 100.

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-
 
With what you've posted here above Dan, and with the main warming season appearing to be beginning more in earnest at this point, tacked in here just below, I've been inspired to venture and post a general pattern evolution estimation where looking ahead for a week or so, mainly working from, and with my most recent colder air mass movement / distribution projection posted in mind. - @
 
Lending to and working to shape the over-all pattern where looking ahead at the next few to several days, … 
 
.. I've got main colder air mass (less dense and only relatively cold at this seasonal point.) receding northward through to the 30th, before beginning to move and spread gradually more south again daily. This with where otherwise looking at main cold's more longitudinal potential, its being caused to move at a generally more stepped up pace daily through to the 28th, before slowing daily from then forward. 
 
Main pattern wise, with main colder air's both recession while at the same time moving more assertively east at all, this should lend to a somewhat more zonal pattern, focused increasingly more northward. And so, with this idea, the ridging in place and just now beginning to develop, being caused to remain fairly broad-based, and even cut through to some extent, or otherwise kept from extending more northward where looked at more generally. This, with then once colder air begins to move more south again, and with its also slowing, main patterning turning to somewhat more meridional. 
 
.. I've used the term somewhat here above, in line with the idea that I'm also expecting colder air movement looked at more over-all, to be increasingly more tentative, or less forceful, through the 2nd of June.

---
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Guest happ

Due to a strong inversion/ onshore flow, clouds never cleared today and temps stayed cool.  Also of interest is the first hurricane of the eastern Pacific, Amanda, that could advect moisture into the Southwest later next week.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] :  74 / 39

DEATH VALLEY [-194]: MISSING

 

H: 69

L: 61

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-

 

With what you've posted here above Dan, and with the main warming season appearing to be beginning more in earnest at this point, tacked in here just below, I've been inspired to venture and post a general pattern evolution estimation where looking ahead for a week or so, mainly working from, and with my most recent colder air mass movement / distribution projection posted in mind. - @

 

Lending to and working to shape the over-all pattern where looking ahead at the next few to several days, … 

 

.. I've got main colder air mass (less dense and only relatively cold at this seasonal point.) receding northward through to the 30th, before beginning to move and spread gradually more south again daily. This with where otherwise looking at main cold's more longitudinal potential, its being caused to move at a generally more stepped up pace daily through to the 28th, before slowing daily from then forward. 

 

Main pattern wise, with main colder air's both recession while at the same time moving more assertively east at all, this should lend to a somewhat more zonal pattern, focused increasingly more northward. And so, with this idea, the ridging in place and just now beginning to develop, being caused to remain fairly broad-based, and even cut through to some extent, or otherwise kept from extending more northward where looked at more generally. This, with then once colder air begins to move more south again, and with its also slowing, main patterning turning to somewhat more meridional. 

 

.. I've used the term somewhat here above, in line with the idea that I'm also expecting colder air movement looked at more over-all, to be increasingly more tentative, or less forceful, through the 2nd of June.

 

A more zonal pattern with the jet further north is typical for this time of year so it appears that we are in a more classic spring pattern, and is forecast to warm up somewhat over the next several days before cooling down later next week. However, the flow is not forecast to go offshore thanks to the more zonal jet despite the warmth forecast for Tuesday.

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Low clouds cleared early today and it is sunny here in Orange right now. Temperatures forecast for early to mid next week are a bit above normal, with highs expected to be in the low-mid 80's in inland Orange County, and are expected to cool to near average later in the week with highs in the mid 70's to near 80. It is good that there are no heat waves on the horizon, and I believe we are in a more springlike pattern now as compared to earlier this month when we were in an October-November fall-like pattern.

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One item of interest today is that Hurricane Amanda is now the strongest May hurricane (at Category 4 intensity) in the eastern Pacific since the satellite era began. It will be interesting to see how strong the developing El Nino becomes later this summer. Here is an excerpt from NHC's latest advisory on the storm:

 

 

BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AMANDA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 111.3W
ABOUT 740 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
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Guest happ

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

  CURRENT THINKING BRINGS A TROUGH DOWN FROM THE ALASKAN LOW AND 

  PERHAPS EVEN BRINGS THE LOW CENTER DOWN SOUTH A BIT AS WELL.  AS 

  HURRICANE AMANDA MOVES NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD IT WILL BE WORTH 

  WATCHING TO SEE IF IT MAY GET DRAWN UP INTO THE TROUGH AND PERHAPS 

  BRING AT LEAST INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION AND PERHAPS A 

  CHANCE AT LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS 

  IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THOUGH NOT A STRONG PROBABILITY.  ONSHORE 

  FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUS SOME 

  DEGREE OF COOLING REGARDLESS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

 

 

 

 

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Guest happ

Warming up fast inland; Central Valley pushing 100° today.  Seasonably comfortable coast/ coastal valleys.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] : 78 / 43

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 111 / 80

 

H: 82

L: 64

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I am certainly liking the +PDO signature in the Pacific as I believe conditions are more favorable for El Nino to continue to develop. Also I am encouraged by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) trending negative over the last few months. It is my opinion and conclusion from looking at past weather records that the combination of -PDO, +AMO, and ENSO neutral or weak ENSO conditions bring about the worst droughts in California, particularly the southern half of the state, and that the Southwest in general is affected by drought in this pattern as well. The last three years have been under this general pattern and I am really glad to see everything trending away from it now, and am certainly more encouraged now that there is a much higher chance of wetter winters in the future if these trends continue.


IMO it is critical that a moderate to strong El Nino forms to increase the chances of getting drought relief this next winter because there seems to be a lag time of about a year before the atmosphere reacts to changes in the PDO and AMO. On the other hand, the effects from ENSO are felt the following winter since it is a shorter-term pattern. If the AMO and PDO continue trending the way they are now, wetter winters would be possible even in ENSO neutral years beginning in 2015-16.


I should note that La Nina (regardless of AMO and PDO phases) tends to contribute to drought conditions in the SW states, but the effects in CA are more mixed with some years being wetter and others being drier. This is another reason why the SW has frequently been in drought since about 1999.


 


Note: I also posted this same comment in the Mountain West thread, because this applies to both regions.


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Guest happ

 

I am certainly liking the +PDO signature in the Pacific as I believe conditions are more favorable for El Nino to continue to develop. Also I am encouraged by the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) trending negative over the last few months. It is my opinion and conclusion from looking at past weather records that the combination of -PDO, +AMO, and ENSO neutral or weak ENSO conditions bring about the worst droughts in California, particularly the southern half of the state, and that the Southwest in general is affected by drought in this pattern as well. The last three years have been under this general pattern and I am really glad to see everything trending away from it now, and am certainly more encouraged now that there is a much higher chance of wetter winters in the future if these trends continue.

IMO it is critical that a moderate to strong El Nino forms to increase the chances of getting drought relief this next winter because there seems to be a lag time of about a year before the atmosphere reacts to changes in the PDO and AMO. On the other hand, the effects from ENSO are felt the following winter since it is a shorter-term pattern. If the AMO and PDO continue trending the way they are now, wetter winters would be possible even in ENSO neutral years beginning in 2015-16.

I should note that La Nina (regardless of AMO and PDO phases) tends to contribute to drought conditions in the SW states, but the effects in CA are more mixed with some years being wetter and others being drier. This is another reason why the SW has frequently been in drought since about 1999.

 

Note: I also posted this same comment in the Mountain West thread, because this applies to both regions.

 

 

I am encouraged by your assessment, Dan.  Some speak of long-term drought of 10-20 years comparable to historic events; that would be disastrous for California.  Ocean water temps have been slightly elevated all year along the West Coast; getting tropical activity this early in the year is a good signal, I hope, for an active monsoon season.  It would be great for hurricane Amanda, to get pulled northward into the developing trough later in the week; rain this time of the year is rare.

 

A little warm today with some nearby valley areas topping 90° but unlike the last 2 heat waves, the weak high pressure/ inversion allows a nice flow of marine air; even a little stratus before sunrise.

 

H: 85

L: 61

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Guest happ

Nothing spectacular happening; some high clouds streaming north from Hurricane Amanda; usual heat in the desert and a frost advisory for inland areas of the North Coast tonight.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AP [6314] : 75 / 42

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 117 / 88

 

H: 86

L: 63

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I think it is getting to the point that the NWS 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks are just showing above normal temperatures over CA no matter what. The 6-10 Day outlook today is showing just that. However, the discussion states otherwise:

 

THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ENHANCING ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, MODELS ARE

FAVORING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

 

If that is the case, why are they not showing NEAR NORMAL temperatures (white) as opposed to ABOVE NORMAL (red & orange) for CA? It appears that there is a warm bias showing up here and I don't think that is right.

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Guest happ

I have been baffled by these 6-10/ 8-14 day outlooks as well though accuracy beyond a few days is almost a 50/50 proposition per my understanding.  NOAA must be factoring in soil temps due to the drought as a major influence.  California has been above normal temperature-wise for the entire year.

 

Aside from a few upper level lows that suppress both maximum/ minimum temps, means are above normal.  Case in point, the relatively warm minimums especially near the coast reflecting mild sea surface temps [62-72] from LA to San Diego.       

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I have been baffled by these 6-10/ 8-14 day outlooks as well though accuracy beyond a few days is almost a 50/50 proposition per my understanding.  NOAA must be factoring in soil temps due to the drought as a major influence.  California has been above normal temperature-wise for the entire year.

 

Aside from a few upper level lows that suppress both maximum/ minimum temps, means are above normal.  Case in point, the relatively warm minimums especially near the coast reflecting mild sea surface temps [62-72] from LA to San Diego.       

You may be right in that NOAA is factoring the soil temperatures being higher due to the lack of moisture content as they usually do for long range forecasting for the Plains and the Midwest when they are drought-stricken. It has definitely been a warm winter and spring around here, but not every single day or string of days has been above normal, but the trend has certainly been above normal for the year to date.

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Guest happ

Fairly stagnant pattern of weak troughiness.  It hasn't rain anywhere in California for over a week but extreme north coastal and northern Sierra could pick up some showers in a day or two.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] :  68 / 30

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 106 / 76

 

H: 82

L: 63

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Guest happ

Trough is stalling; surface heights are too strong.  Ending the month on the warm side

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] :  70 / 32

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 113 / 80

 

H: 84

L: 60 [no morning stratus

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Trough is stalling; surface heights are too strong.  Ending the month on the warm side. ......

 

 

 Looking at the main and broader "heat" signature at this point "happ", .. and with as I see thingscolder to warmer main air massat this point set to set up over the next few to several days, …

 

 http://www.proxigee.com/14053100_tcm_sfc_na-t40.png

14053100z tcm sfc naImage source: "Unisys Weather"

 

 .. I'd say that, with and after the general effect of the most recent cooler and more moderating air has diminished, and main radiational warming has started to take over and dominate again more generally, .. with main colder ("cooler".) air in fact having begun to expand (move and spread.) more southward—with at this point being set to further daily steadily more over the next 10 to 14 dayswhile at the same time being caused to slow its main progress more longitudinally east, … http://theweatherfor...ctions/?p=28058

 

.. a somewhat (leastwise.) similar pattern, to the one that I'd pointed to about a month ago, has a chance to recur, begun from this point and where looking more forward. ….

 

This with, more mainly, as over-all cold slows its main movement east, heat from the main SW heat sink being both "allowed" to drift more westward, while, at the same time, that heat is "corralled" in on all sides but south, by and with, again, the the general spread of cooler air more south. 

 

Main factors temperature wise plus and minus, "less-cold" colder air north and moving more south, if more potential heat built up SW.

---
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Guest happ

 

 

 Looking at the main and broader "heat" signature at this point "happ", .. and with as I see thingscolder to warmer main air massat this point set to set up over the next few to several days, …

 

 

14053100z tcm sfc naImage source: "Unisys Weather"

 

 .. I'd say that, with and after the general effect of the most recent cooler and more moderating air has diminished, and main radiational warming has started to take over and dominate again more generally, .. with main colder ("cooler".) air in fact having begun to expand (move and spread.) more southward—with at this point being set to further daily steadily more over the next 10 to 14 dayswhile at the same time being caused to slow its main progress more longitudinally east, … http://theweatherfor...ctions/?p=28058

 

.. a somewhat (leastwise.) similar pattern, to the one that I'd pointed to about a month ago, has a chance to recur, begun from this point and where looking more forward. ….

 

This with, more mainly, as over-all cold slows its main movement east, heat from the main SW heat sink being both "allowed" to drift more westward, while, at the same time, that heat is "corralled" in on all sides but south, by and with, again, the the general spread of cooler air more south. 

 

Main factors temperature wise plus and minus, "less-cold" colder air north and moving more south, if more potential heat built up SW.

 

I don't think this was the warmest May in California history but every month is as warm by a month.  May was as warm as a typical June; may mean July temps in June :o 14053100z tcm sfc na

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Guest happ

This got me curious, so I crunched the numbers for my location in Tujunga for this year to date against the 23-year average mean:

 

MONTH    NORM    OBSERVED    DEPARTURE

 

JAN            54.1          63.1                  +9.0

FEB            53.4          58.5                  +5.1

MAR           56.6          60.1                  +3.5

APR            59.4          65.9                  +6.5

MAY            64.2          67.7                  +3.5

 

:o  is right!

 

Agree, January was an insane 66.3 here.

 

Upcoming week doesn't look too bad other than boring.  Stratus has been so disorganized lately.

 

L: 60

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Guest happ

MARINE LAYER STRATUS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF

  POINT CONCEPTION DESPITE THE DEEP MARINE LAYER. THE BEST GUESS

  COULD BE BECAUSE OF WARMER THAN NORMAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES FOR

  THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME BEACHES HAVE REPORTED WATER TEMPERATURES

  IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MARINE LAYER COVERAGE WILL BE

  PROBLEMATIC AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THINNING OF THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH COULD

  OCCUR TONIGHT AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE PRESSES DOWN ON THE TOP OF THE

  MARINE LAYER. 

  

S. MONICA BASIN: 67 

S PEDRO CHANNEL: 67 

DANA POINT : 69

CMP PENDLETON NS: 70   

OCEANSIDE OFFSHR: 69

TORREY PINES OTR: 69

LA JOLLA: 68  

MISSION BAY BUOY:  69   

SAN DIEGO BAY: 72 

PT LOMA SOUTH: 68  

 

http://sccoos.ucsd.edu/data/images/modis/modA.20140529204000.L2_LAC.sst.la2sd.jpg

 

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Guest happ

Ocean temps at 3PM

 

S. MONICA BASIN 68 
S PEDRO CHANNEL 70   
DANA POINT 70  
CMP PENDLETON NS 71 
OCEANSIDE OFFSHR 70  
TORREY PINES OTR 70
LA JOLLA 72
MISSION BAY BUOY 70

SAN DIEGO BAY 73 
POINT LOMA SOUTH 70
 
 

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Guest happ

May 2014 Data

 

Aver Max: 82.6 [Norm: 78

Aver Min: 62.0 [Norm: 58

Mean: 72.3

 

Highest Max: 102

Lowest Max: 69

 

Highest Min: 75

Lowest Min: 53

 

Rain: 0.00

Rain Year: [jul-jun]: 6.19

Days of Day: 0

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Ocean temps at 3PM

 

S. MONICA BASIN 68 

S PEDRO CHANNEL 70   

DANA POINT 70  

CMP PENDLETON NS 71 

OCEANSIDE OFFSHR 70  

TORREY PINES OTR 70

LA JOLLA 72

MISSION BAY BUOY 70

SAN DIEGO BAY 73 

POINT LOMA SOUTH 70

 

 

This is quite typical of summertime coastal SSTs in some of the years back in the 90's with developing El Nino and +PDO. I think this is a good sign for more exciting weather potential this winter as long as El Nino continues to develop. The added warmth I believe could enhance rainfall from storms that come in off the ocean.

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Guest happ

Thought this cynical comment on the morning update was funny:

 

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...
  WELL THE WEATHER TRAIN HAS PULLED INTO DULLSVILLE. THE NEXT SEVEN 
  DAYS WILL CONSIST OF TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE VAGARIES OF THE MARINE 
  LAYER AND THE EFFECTS OF SAID MARINE LAYER ON TEMPERATURES. OR WE 
  COULD JUST SAY ITS JUNE.

 

 

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE :  74 / 31

DEATH VALLEY : 109 / 76

 

H: 85

L: 59

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Guest happ

Weak upper level lows/ troughs should produce a healthy marine layer but not this year.  Clear nights 60° or below are a result of the lack of morning low cloud cover. Maximums tend to be a bit higher than average some 10 miles inland from the ocean, except today was cooler as the ULL moves overhead.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314'] : 74 / 35

DEATH VALLEY [-194']: 111 / 84

 

H: 82

L: 60

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Guest happ

Fairly typical June day.  Deep marine layer along the Central California coast produced measurable drizzle

 

LAGUNA SECA 0.03

CARMEL 0.02
PETALUMA 0.02

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] : 75 / 31

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 109 / 80

 

H: 86

L: 58

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Fairly typical June day.  Deep marine layer along the Central California coast produced measurable drizzle

 

LAGUNA SECA 0.03

CARMEL 0.02

PETALUMA 0.02

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] : 75 / 31

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 109 / 80

 

H: 86

L: 58

That marine layer surely has been absent from Socal the last five days or so.

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Guest happ

That marine layer surely has been absent from Socal the last five days or so.

 

I think strong high pressure over Texas back toward Baja is one reason for the lack of stratus.  Onshore flow is seasonably strong.  Current ocean temps running 68-72°, basically normal July to Sept readings that can support a marine layer and that should re-form again in a few days .    

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] :  77 / 34

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 112 / 79

 

H: 85

L: 60

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Guest happ

NWS_LV

 

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE

HEAT WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA

AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA BELOW 4000 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

 

EXPECTED TEMPERATURES:

MOJAVE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING LAS VEGAS...107 TO 111.

COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...108 TO 114.

DEATH VALLEY...118 TO 120.

KINGMAN...100 TO 102.

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Guest happ

Looks like the heat this weekend will be moderated by strong onshore flow west of the transverse/ peninsular ranges.  Marine layer may reach into the foothills/ San Gabriel valley tomorrow.

 

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE [6314] : 79 / 39

DEATH VALLEY [-194] : 115 / 77

 

H: 84

L: 61

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Guest happ

The marine layer finally made an appearance late last night. It feels a little cooler and has been a bit breezier this evening, so the onshore flow has likely increased some this afternoon and the stratus may come in earlier tonight.

 

I think Orange is closer to the ocean than the Pasadena area and without low coastal mountains [under 1000'] there is a better chance for stratus.  I am around 15 miles inland and can see the Pacific at the end of the road on days with good visibility.  Maybe the coastal clouds will reach my location in the morning. 

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