james1976 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Lot of dynamics. Spring storm systemMy guess is pretty iso cash in job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018041600&fh=78&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Right but with temperatures in the 30s thunderstorms could cool the atmosphere to freezing locally. Its happened before.This situation doesn’t look like that especially at least initially. Look at the soundings. Everything from at least 700mb down is quite a bit above freezing. In the instances where you get cooling or snowfall when it’s above freezing, most of the atmosphere just above the surface is below zero 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Winter storm watches issued for some areas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Surprised to see my county in a WSW although i think its mainly for ice potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Nam takes the low just NE of STL while GFS is much stronger and takes it into S WI 12z NAM https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018041612&fh=51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 This is very odd, but the NAM appears to be the weakest of all the models. There's a first time for everything I guess. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018041612/069/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 The low is south and weaker on the NAM versus other models, but the at the 500 level things are quite similar. The vort on the NAM is impressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 3k NAM even less snow. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018041612/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 This is last night's Euro for comparison. Looks like the WSW was based heavily on the Euro as some counties in the watch area are showing no or little snow on the GFS and NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 The NAM have less precip all together. I can buy the less snow no problem. Its april after all, but there are some strong dynamics at play I think it will become more moist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 The Ukie looks almost identical in placement and strength as the Euro. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018041612&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 3k NAM even less snow. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018041612/060/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThats a strange snowhole lol.James/Gosaints omadome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 ICON total QPF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Icon looks furthest south. Def not buying that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Ukie south of the others. Northern Iowa it would jack based on crap map 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 I'll be interested to see if the Euro drops further south like the UK. The way this winter season has gone, storms have trended south many times and we've also seen significant shifts even after watches were posted. I don't think it will get far enough south for me to worry about, but the UK hits my parents house pretty hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 1"+ qpf for me on Ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Again the ukie is much different that other models as it relate to vort and energy. Differences are in qpf placement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 The 12z euro also shows a significant southward shift. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Euro follows the UKIE with QPF placement..... Hawkeye beat me to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Yeah pretty close. I wonder if GFS will start to jump onboard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Nc into nw Iowa has been ground zero over the last month. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Yeah pretty close. I wonder if GFS will start to jump onboard.The differences arent large as we are still 48 hours out especially when one takes into account its a narrow snow band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 The EURO was south yeasterday at 12z then north at 0z and now back south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Models turning this into a pretty meh event for us in Eastern Nebraska. I'm over it, I'd rather not have a cold rain to spend my last week here anyways, even though it's not going to be warm by any standards. Hopefully we can get some sort of severe wx this week but I'm definitely not holding my breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 NAM is a little more moist this go around and focused on the Hwy 20 corridor on north in Iowa. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018041618/051/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 DVN is not buying much in the way of snow accumulations. Calling for an inch or less on grassy surfaces along Highway 20. If this system were passing through at night, we'd probably talking a whole different story here, but except in the areas of heaviest precip rates, accumulations will likely be tough, at least in eastern Iowa. Maybe a different story in other areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 DVN is not buying much in the way of snow accumulations. Calling for an inch or less on grassy surfaces along Highway 20. If this system were passing through at night, we'd probably talking a whole different story here, but except in the areas of heaviest precip rates, accumulations will likely be tough, at least in eastern Iowa. Maybe a different story in other areas.Possible result for sure... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 LaCrosse going with 4-7" for SE Minnesota and far NE Iowa. The snowfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches still look possibleover all of southeast Minnesota into the first tier of countiesacross northeast Iowa. Will expand the winter storm watch a littleand add in Wabasha, Winona, Houston and Winneshiek Counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 DMX actually shifted snow further north and weaker from this morning. Must not be latching onto the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 Precip rates are extremely impressive on the GFS. This is 3 hour qpf http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018041618/045/qpf_003h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 16, 2018 Report Share Posted April 16, 2018 EURO must be on some sort of drugs. It came even further south today giving me 3-4 inches. Not believing it Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2018 0z gfs came in way south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2018 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018041700&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted April 17, 2018 Report Share Posted April 17, 2018 Gfs http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018041700&fh=60&r=us_mw&dpdt=Interesting, seems like its trending towards the euro. CMC came south too Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 17, 2018 Report Share Posted April 17, 2018 If it snows more than 1" one more time im gonna cry. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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