11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[East Dubzz]

Oh god 39hr RAP. I think we can count on it to have the 100% right idea. Jokes aside, the point of higher res models being further south is worrying for CR and backs the euro. Honestly as much as the FV3 has been consistent, with the info available now, I feel like discounting it is the best move.

I wouldn’t say to totally discount the GFS/FV3, but it’s probably smart to lean towards all the other guidance.

[Money]

Oh god 39hr RAP. I think we can count on it to have the 100% right idea. Jokes aside, the point of higher res models being further south is worrying for CR and backs the euro. Honestly as much as the FV3 has been consistent, with the info available now, I feel like discounting it is the best move.

Yeah that’s what I was getting at. Usually short term models are amped up and way too far north at this range.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah that’s what I was getting at. Usually short term models are amped up and way too far north at this range.

Maybe it’s amping up the northern stream too much?

[hlcater]

Really? Dont look at rap or hrrr until sat night

Seeing where the CAMs are trending is valuable info and while no individual run should be used, seeing where they are overall can be worth something.

[East Dubzz]

Really? Dont look at rap or hrrr until sat night

It’s not a bad idea to see how things are looking further west, as it could give an idea of which model has been handling it best.

[Money]

It’s also good to see how the northern stream system is trending on it considering that’s within its range

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Right. Good points.

[jaster220]

h60 UKmet wants to drown me with qpf. Be gr8 if it were snow

 

[East Dubzz]

I’m assuming the HRRR is just doing long range things, or otherwise the SLP is going to be in a much different position than some models are projecting haha

[james1976]

FV3 throwing bout 4-5 at me. Foot in the neighbor's yard. Every other model basically no flakes. Crazy stuff. That northern edge is tight.

[james1976]

Actually GFS OP looks ok up here too I guess but yeah GFS camp on its own.

[hlcater]

Even the GEFS seems to largely disagree with its own op, not looking good for the FV3 or the GFS. 

 

[jaster220]

Actually GFS OP looks ok up here too I guess but yeah GFS camp on its own.

 

GEFS has many members at odds with the Operational. Actually gives me a bit of encouragement to hang in here on this one.

 

[East Dubzz]

Even the GEFS seems to largely disagree with its own op, not looking good for the FV3 or the GFS.

 

There’s a decent amount that are further north. Certainly not a consensus. But I do expect the GFS/VF3 to continue to move south come the morning.

[Grizzcoat]

Agree with the others who think slim/no chance of Dr.No differing from Uncle Ukie. They both do excellent in situations like this and almost always mirror each other.

[jaster220]

There’s a decent amount that are further north. Certainly not a consensus. But I do expect the GFS/VF3 to continue to move south come the morning.

 

If they do, those on the northern edge of the snow shield are gonna feel burned. As I have this afternoon watching most guidance shift back north.

[jcwxguy]

Euro remaining south, 3-5 Lincoln, 2-4 Omaha

[Grizzcoat]

Euro staying put.

[Money]

Ukie and euro nearly identical at 48

[james1976]

Maybe advisory around 30 corridor in IA and warning I80 south. Thats my guess with current trends.

[jcwxguy]

Last system shifted north last minute, maybe this one will also and make GFS look good

[jaster220]

Last system shifted north last minute, maybe this one will also and make GFS look good

 

Refresh my memory. Which last system?

[hlcater]

My first call for Hiawatha is a frankly pathetic 1-3”, 5-8” in IC

[hlcater]

In other words, I’m ready to call it here despite the GFS. Maybe too early, but I don’t see the GFS pulling through when it’s own ensemble doesn’t even agree.

[Grizzcoat]

Last system shifted north last minute, maybe this one will also and make GFS look good

Might be referring to a system on the 17th that gave basically freak snows to much of S.IA. Parts got 5-7" when only 1-3 was expected and the NWS DMX had to add two row of counties to the N the to WWA at the last minute / during the event.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeah EURO did not change much at all. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

[jaster220]

Might be referring to a system on the 17th that gave basically freak snows to much of S.IA. Parts got 5-7" when only 1-3 was expected and the NWS DMX had to add two row of counties to the N the to WWA at the last minute / during the event.

 

Yeah, prolly that one. Was a surprise 0.5" here as well.

[jaster220]

Don't have the maps, but hearing Euro DESTROYS Chicago-land? Worst conditions since GHD-1

[hlcater]

Can someone post the euro so I can cry myself to sleep

[Grizzcoat]

CHI gets crushed.

 

[snowstorm83]

Scary gradient in Lancaster county...

[Minny_Weather]

Scary gradient in Lancaster county...

Strange how the gradient always seems to end up right in Lancaster County.

[james1976]

Tom may reel this one in last minute.

[jaster220]

Tom may reel this one in last minute.

 

I'm here tugging this end of the rope too - sorry

[gabel23]

Gonna come down to transition from rain to snow imo going off the euro. Looking at nw Nebraska into se Nebraska that cut off I think is the model depicting the transition zone. I think we do better area wide than what’s being shown with the euro.

[jaster220]

Can someone post the euro so I can cry myself to sleep

 

..and I can have sweet dreams of reading the morning AFD's while sipping my Starbucks. Cruel cruel hobby this wx biz

[jaster220]

CHI gets crushed.

 

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-96-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

 

Chicago-land no doubt will do well in that map, but the city proper has a giant bath tub full of warm lake water to deal with. I was there in the Loop with my fiance' on Dec 1st of '08 when there were WSWarnings going. It rained or rained some mush flakes in the loop. As we headed home to Marshall, we didn't see snow really until we got near Michigan City IN.

[Sciascia]

A couple more Euro color maps I found. Holy Toledo if it were to pan out.

[Jaycee]

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Nam is juiced-- much more QPF. But 06Z Nam's love to amp systems.