11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[jaster220]

RGEM blasts southern Iowa from just about i80 and south.

 

RGEM low 990's for Chicago/SMI

 

[bud2380]

RGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112412/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gabel23]

You are likely going to be re-living those golden years of the past my friend. What a turnaround in just 24 hours...not to shabby, right??? Same here, I just got back from the stores and purchased some more outdoor LED lights/icicles and plan on putting the rest up later this afternoon. Need to eat and take a power nap beforehand though...woke up way to early today!

That’s my plan today! I started my lights but have a long ways to go! Traditionally my timers are all set ready to go and will be turned on tonight, I’m slacking but I hope to finish everything today! If I can get my 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow I’ll be super stoked, Nothing better than seeing Christmas lights on and a fresh blanket of snow on the ground!

[bud2380]

GFS moving south.

[bud2380]

Not as far south as the NAM but further south than 6z. 

[Grizzcoat]

[jaster220]

That’s my plan today! I started my lights but have a long ways to go! Traditionally my timers are all set ready to go and will be turned on tonight, I’m slacking but I hope to finish everything today! If I can get my 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow I’ll be super stoked, Nothing better than seeing Christmas lights on and a fresh blanket of snow on the ground!

 

haha, couldn't agree more!

[Clinton]

Geeze, this is going to be some low ratio snow around these parts.  Here is WGN's take on the snow amounts right now....

 

 

This storm is fitting into the LRC very well.  The LRC isn't perfect but it's a big help when the models are clueless.  Tom are you ready for some heavy, wind driven wet snow?

[East Dubzz]

That stinks, but it was inevitable.

[jaster220]

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_039.gif

 

NA models baby-stepping south almost guarantees GRR gets caught with their pants down in face-palm mode. They'll lean that direction (thus see headlines that go against their own AFD concerns) by default until the very last moment. Never fails

[Sciascia]

Southern shift on 12z GFS brings big snows into Rockford/De Kalb area in IL, where there was much less on the 6z. Still 6+ in Davenport & near Cedar Rapids in IA. And MKE around 6 inches.

[GDR]

Nice run by the gfs

[GDR]

[jaster220]

NAM vort map snapshot (Mon 7 pm) shows a massive gyre centered over the GLs. As Tom mentioned, this seems to be a recurring theme thus far and really bodes well as we get into true winter.

 

[gabel23]

That stinks, but it was inevitable.

You and I will be riding the edge my friend, best of luck to you! I just hope to squeeze out 3” from this. Here’s to hoping the euro nudges just a bit north!

[East Dubzz]

You and I will be riding the edge my friend, best of luck to you! I just hope to squeeze out 3” from this. Here’s to hoping the euro nudges just a bit north!

Riding the edge indeed. But I have conceeded that I will no longer get any snow. An inch maybe, if I get lucky.

[gabel23]

Riding the edge indeed. But I have conceeded that I will no longer get any snow. An inch maybe, if I get lucky.

You on the north or south side of town?

[jaster220]

GRR :huh:

 

Siding with model runs that support their (premature?) watch box. Idk, could be the Euro/Ukie/NAM are junk in the end?

 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EST Sat Nov 24 2018

Confidence is increasing for the current forecast scenario of
greatest snow accumulations north of a Muskegon to Mount Pleasant
line. This is based on the 23/12Z and 24/00Z runs of the ECE,
which both have shown an increasing number of ensemble members
gravitating towards a more northern solution. Additionally, we are
getting close enough to the event to begin leveraging the
convection allowing models - including the 36 hour 24/12Z run of
the HRRR which concurs with the current forecast with respect to
placement of the axis of heaviest snow.

It should be stressed that accumulating snow will be very slushy
and dense, which could be quite impactful where the greatest
totals occur. We plan to send a notification message later today
and will be discussing headline decisions with surrounding
offices.


&&

[East Dubzz]

You on the north or south side of town?

I’m actually in NW Illinois. Trends are taking this storm away from me. And another example of why you don’t want to be in the bullseye a a couple days out!

 

It’s weird to see a storm trend south this time of year.

[jaster220]

You and I will be riding the edge my friend, best of luck to you! I just hope to squeeze out 3” from this. Here’s to hoping the euro nudges just a bit north! south!

 

fixed!

[jaster220]

I’m actually in NW Illinois. Trends are taking this storm away from me. And another example of why you don’t want to be in the bullseye a a couple days out!

 

It’s weird to see a storm trend south this time of year.

 

GRR says "what south trend??"

[Tom]

This storm is fitting into the LRC very well. The LRC isn't perfect but it's a big help when the models are clueless. Tom are you ready for some heavy, wind driven wet snow?

Fired up buddy! I wasn’t that excited a couple days ago , by when I saw the Euro shifting south and agreeing with the Ukie, confidence began to grow I was going to see some snow.

 

What period in the LRC are you seeing this system matching up to? Honestly, I think we are still in cycle #1 bc the pattern post storm doesn’t support what happens in early Oct. On the other hand, this storm may be a “harmonic” and mirroring a shorter mini cycle which happens.

[gabel23]

fixed!

Ha well played!! Best of luck to all, like I said I’m happy with just a bit, just give me something! It’s just amazing we are talking about a strong storm this early in the year! Hope this is a sign of things to come in the future.

[Tom]

Clinton, where are you located in N MO?

[Sciascia]

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

958 AM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

 

.UPDATE...

944 AM CST

 

While we are still waiting on the GFS and ECMWF 12z runs, several

of the near term models are attempting to hone in on the axis of

heaviest snow and strong winds on Sunday. The general consensus to

this point has been through an axis northwest of Chicago. While

this is still generally the case, especially given the thermal

profiles, the latest NAM, the ECMWF (numerous runs to this point),

and some of the WRF NMM/ARW models suggest an axis between I-90/88

and I-80 could certainly be the favored corridor.

 

Once rain changes over to snow, it will likely be coming down

very hard, so in spite of the marginal surface temperatures to

start, snow once it starts to fall will rapidly accumulate with

heavy, wet slushy snow. While exact transition times are up in

the air, travelers should be prepared from mid morning northwest

to early to mid afternoon across portions of the Chicago metro,

for a quick transition/deterioration, given the challenges on

exact transition/Snow onset time.

 

In addition, strong winds will eventually accompany the heavy

snow, so even with snow amounts in question, heavy snow rates and

strong winds will make for very hazardous travel on a busy travel

day. Given the signal for a possibly farther south corridor, we

have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include a tier of counties

farther south and east with this morning update. These counties

start and end a bit later than the counties farther west.

[gabel23]

Fired up buddy! I wasn’t that excited a couple days ago , by when I saw the Euro shifting south and agreeing with the Ukie, confidence began to grow I was going to see some snow.

 

What period in the LRC are you seeing this system matching up to? Honestly, I think we are still in cycle #1 bc the pattern post storm doesn’t support what happens in early Oct. On the other hand, this storm may be a “harmonic” and mirroring a shorter mini cycle which happens.

Tom, I think this fits pretty well with the first storm way back in early October. It came out much further south down in the Texas Panhandle but then looped up to the north east. I received an inch and a half of rain from that storm. Amazing to see the resemblance, the following week in October I received my 3” of snow. With that being said we should expect another storm within a week and the models have been showing it!

[indianajohn]

Congrats to our Illinois peeps!!! Enjoy the snowstorm!! In the mean time I will be out in the rain 30 miles south putting up Xmas lights LOL!!!

[jaster220]

LOT with an excellent update. Can you pls x-fer somebody over to GRR's office. Seriously, we endure this every holiday it seems. We get the "b-team" players on duty as the more senior members get vacation time. Has happened numerous times that the experienced guy(s) had to come into their office to correct a major screw-up (like the WWA for 8-10"). In one way it's funny and doesn't matter in the end. In another way it's annoying as h*ll

[jaster220]

Tom, I think this fits pretty well with the first storm way back in early October. It came out much further south down in the Texas Panhandle but then looped up to the north east. I received an inch and a half of rain from that storm. Amazing to see the resemblance, the following week in October I received my 3” of snow. With that being said we should expect another storm within a week and the models have been showing it!

 

I would tend to agree. Only time will tell, but a seasonal adjustment SE from ~6 weeks ago seems logical to my way of thinking. During that early Oct Plains blitz we basically got nada over here. I remember thinking that last Oct we were bombarded with heavy rainstorms and it turned out that wasn't a good thing for the winter.

[dubuque473]

If it is going to be an inch I'd rather get nothing.

 

Early in the season yet!

[East Dubzz]

This is the first time I’ve paid attention to the FV3, and let me say that it was not a positive first impression.

[jaster220]

Intellicast seems to be leaning with the south track

 

[jaster220]

This is the first time I’ve paid attention to the FV3, and let me say that it was not a positive first impression.

 

Same old model wrapped in new clothing.

[gosaints]

Tom crush job potential is so very high

[bud2380]

12z HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018112412/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Clinton]

Fired up buddy! I wasn’t that excited a couple days ago , by when I saw the Euro shifting south and agreeing with the Ukie, confidence began to grow I was going to see some snow.

 

What period in the LRC are you seeing this system matching up to? Honestly, I think we are still in cycle #1 bc the pattern post storm doesn’t support what happens in early Oct. On the other hand, this storm may be a “harmonic” and mirroring a shorter mini cycle which happens.

I believe we are in the OCT 16-20th part of the pattern and I think we are in cycle 2.  Gary even said a few night ago that we have seen this series of waves before.  This is one of the shortest cycles I can remember and should make for one heck of a snowy cold winter.

[East Dubzz]

12z HRRR

 

The long-range HRRR is my last hope.

 

Not great, Bob!

[GDR]

[GDR]

That would be a dream for most of us. There are a lot of hard hitting members also.

[Grizzcoat]

FV3-GFS has been embarrassed badly and decided to withdraw from further competition.