11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Stormhunter87]

I’ll take this please.

Second. Although not as good as in the past runs but higher amounts

[Stormhunter87]

Oax ain't buying in to the GFS or fv3 they are saying 2-3. Not sure why either. The rap and hrrr have upped the amounts

[indianajohn]

oh well..................was holding out hope for NWI to get in on the action but doesn't  look likely....Have fun guys!!!

[ToastedRavs]

"Remember,hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies"--Andy Dufrane

 

"Don't give up, don't ever give up"---Jimmy V

 

My point with those quotes is obvious. I am done looking at models, time to look at real time reports, radar, satellites etc... Luckily I was out of town for the roller coaster that seems to have occurred here. Home now, to a blizzard warning fringe. 2 miles away just an advisory. I will take what we get in the morning and enjoy watching the radar. Too many ups and downs rolling with every model and run time for me! Enjoy the snow if you get it. If you don't. Meteorological winter is still a week away so take some solace in that!

[james1976]

Good luck to you all. Man that cutoff is crazy. Hope Bud and Hawkeye have good luck with that. And Eastdubzz. Hope you guys get some good snow. Good luck everyone in that direction and Tom, Jaster and Niko. Legit storm for everyone down there. Hopefully NE peeps get some good stuff too!

[St Paul Storm]

Updated LOT snowfall forecast....

 

I see the extreme Will County gradient will never die. God I hated that thing when I lived there.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Liking the trends with hrrr and fv3! We should be under a blizzard warning here

[Stormhunter87]

I know I'm crazy or just wishing to big but man this feels like the snow storm we had here on valentine's day 2003. They said 2-4 nothing major. Turned into a massive over night storm with over 12 inches.

[snowstorm83]

Well, I'd rather be on the northern edge of a Blizzard warning rather than the southern edge. Being on the southern edge didn't work out so well last winter. 

[Sciascia]

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr has low in same place as GFS fwiw at 12z Sunday, also already getting some light rain showers

[Stormhunter87]

Hrrr has low in same place as GFS fwiw at 12z Sunday, also already getting some light rain showers

Noticed that, plus the rap has increased as well. Also light rain here already.

[bud2380]

18z ICON shifted north from the 12z run as well.  

 

[Minny_Weather]

Sucks that I'm missing a possible blizzard,but since the storm is earlier than it was earlier in the week,may as well root for high amounts in Lincoln now.

[Sciascia]

I don’t know if someone posted the 18z RGEM from today (or if it’s even a reliable tool to use). In any case, here’s what that came up with.

[Minny_Weather]

New HRRR run looking insane for Lincoln.

[Stormhunter87]

New HRRR run looking insane for Lincoln.

Definitely seeing an upward trend and the low pushed up a bit

[hlcater]

New HRRR run looking insane for Lincoln.

Good for Lincoln probably means good for us too.

[Stormhunter87]

The amount lines are super tight. 4 inches in Omaha 8 in Lincoln and I'm a county South of Omaha looks like 6

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Hrrr gives me near 5 now.

[jcwxguy]

Sharpy? Stormhunter

[Niko]

Man, this thing is strong. Whoever falls into the heavy snow band, will likely get big snows. Good luck everyone.

[bud2380]

21z RAP

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018112421/039/snku_acc.conus.png

[bud2380]

15z SREF plume average is 10" for Cedar Rapids

 

[Stormhunter87]

Sharpy? Stormhunter

Yeah sarpy county.

[snowstorm83]

SREF mean is 6.4" for Omaha and 7.5" for Lincoln

[Minny_Weather]

Sorry for not being active in the thread this week. I love tracking storms, but I find it hard to participate in a storm thread knowing I'm gonna miss it by a matter of hours without being jealous. Just figured I may as well say why I wasn't nearly as active in here as I normally am in storm threads.

 

Hoping this pans out so I can come home to solid snowcover tomorrow.

[ToastedRavs]

I think a row of counties in Iowa will be added to WSW/BW if trends continue both on radar, RAP/HRRR, possibly with a 9 or 10pm update, maybe midnight.  Grids have 4" for me just SW of DSM airport, SREF very similar to Bud in CR...9.3" avg for Des Moines.  Range of 1" to 16"!  Edit: That was 15z, 21z up to 10.9" average! With a dream high of 21.9"

[Bryan1117]

Looks like there will be a fairly large spread in snow amounts from northern Douglas County (the northern side of Omaha metro area) to southern Sarpy County (southern side).

 

I am still thinking that 2-4 inches of snow looks likely across the area, however I am liking these last minute trends bringing the heavier snow amounts closer to Omaha and Lincoln. We have seen situations like this overperform around here in the past, we shall see what happens I guess.

[Stormhunter87]

Huge jump on hour 12 to 13 hrrr for Lincoln. 4.9 to 6, definitely seeing some changes. Update that is a very healthy band for Lincoln, Omaha looking a bit weaker still better than earlier.

[Minny_Weather]

Could we see some snow squall warnings out of this storm? It wasn't used much in the test phase last Winter, only a couple times in NY, so it'll be interesting.

[Tom]

Sorry for not being active in the thread this week. I love tracking storms, but I find it hard to participate in a storm thread knowing I'm gonna miss it by a matter of hours without being jealous. Just figured I may as well say why I wasn't nearly as active in here as I normally am in storm threads.

 

Hoping this pans out so I can come home to solid snowcover tomorrow.

I completely understand bud...if I had bought that plane ticket for $75 to AZ last week, I'd be feeling the same way and beating myself up for going!  On the bright side, looks like you'll come back with snow OTG.

[jaster220]

Good luck to you all. Man that cutoff is crazy. Hope Bud and Hawkeye have good luck with that. And Eastdubzz. Hope you guys get some good snow. Good luck everyone in that direction and Tom, Jaster and Niko. Legit storm for everyone down there. Hopefully NE peeps get some good stuff too!

 

Thanks man, hoping some more short-range runs start forcing the boys up in GR to re-think their current headlines across this part of the Mitt

[bud2380]

HRRR

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018112500/028/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

Just fantastic...the 1st legit Blizzard of the Season evolving across the heartland...nice way to kick off the holiday season!

 

My local grid suggesting 7-13"...that's a keeper...

 

@St Paul, I'll also be taking screenshots of that radar imagery...that stuff is gonna look redic...1-2"/hr rates for over 6+ hours and some of it will fall during the daytime which is pretty cool.

 

Two days ago, did you ever think you'd be reading that??

 

btw, just finished-up with my outside lights and I'm ready for my non-headlined event (per my NWS ofc )

[Stormhunter87]

NAM shows a little love to Lincoln no love for Omaha

[bud2380]

NAM is staying majorly juiced this run.  Big hit for Iowa City.  

[jaster220]

Man, this thing is strong. Whoever falls into the heavy snow band, will likely get big snows. Good luck everyone.

 

Thx Niko buddy. Gotta watch that sneaky RAP model. Looks like it has decent snow knocking on Macomb's door

[bud2380]

The NAM is showing 3"/hour snow rates in Eastern Iowa, which is simply not feasible here, so obviously this is overdone, but I could see 1 to 1.5" per hour rates.  

[bud2380]

NAM up to 19.3" for iowa City by 6pm tomorrow. LOL.