11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[East Dubzz]

NAM was better than the GFS in the sense that it was right on the souther solution, but it has been all over the place.

[hlcater]

Wow. The NAM gives Bud over a foot and I dont see a flake. That would be quite something.

[bud2380]

If the NAM verifies, I'll be one happy camper.  

[bud2380]

18z HRRR from Tropical Tidbits.  Huge difference than the one I posted from NOAA.

 

[hlcater]

If the NAM verifies, I'll be one happy camper.  

Honestly me too. I'd be very impressed and in awe of a gradient like that. Especially because I head back to IC tomorrow as classes start tomorrow. I think I told this place I was 30 when I first joined several years ago, but (clearly due to the epic weenie-ness) that wasn't true. I was 14 when I said that. 18 now, not 35. I had a rough first season on here.

[Sciascia]

NAM thru 36hrs:

[bud2380]

3k NAM looking pretty juiced as well.  

[Money]

Milwaukee goes from not seeing a flake to 7+ this run.

 

Tough forecast

[bud2380]

Omaha and lincoln don't fare too bad on the NAM.  4-6".

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112418/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[WBadgersW]

Lets get another 15-20 miles North

[Iowawx]

The cutoff is insane. I feel like I might be on the right side, because any slight shift would be more likely north than south. NAM moved north, and the HRRR seems a bit north. Not yet ready to throw in the towel in CR. 

[bud2380]

3k NAM is showing more snow in Cedar Rapids than Iowa City.  Definite north shift again. LOL.  Good luck forecasting this cutoff.  

[Money]

3k nam taking a jump north as well from 12z

 

HRRR also stronger and north from its last run

[bud2380]

LOL - 13.7" for CR on the 3k NAM.  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018112418/030/snku_acc.us_c.png

[East Dubzz]

American models really have not done well on this storm.

[East Dubzz]

How about two more shift north like that and we can call it good

[Money]

How about two more shift north like that and we can call it good

Agreed

[hlcater]

I think it will end up somewhat like that tho. I said on amwx that I think the cutoff between literally nothing and 10”+ is going to be very tight. Like the 3km NAM/RAP/HRRR say.

[bud2380]

further east view

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018112418/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

It does seem like 6z/18z runs go north and 0z/12z goes south for whatever reason

[Money]

Looking at some gradients

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2018112418&fh=39&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

One county has 13+ in the southern part of it and not even a dusting at the northern part of the county. Would be hard to forecast that lol

[East Dubzz]

All I need is like a 15 mile shift north compared to that run to get right around a foot. Just insane cutoffs. The difference from the NW part of my county to the SE is like 10”. Of course, I’m in the NW part.

[bud2380]

Blizzard warnings issued for northern MO and far SW Iowa.  

[bud2380]

[East Dubzz]

Still a 40% chance for me? Ehhh

[Stormhunter87]

Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh

[East Dubzz]

Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh

Could be like me. I have a winter storm warning in my county. There’s a chance that could verify and I could get no snow, because that’s how tight the cutoff is in my county.

[mlgamer]

Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh

 

Blizzard warning one county North...Sigh

[Tom]

Just fantastic...the 1st legit Blizzard of the Season evolving across the heartland...nice way to kick off the holiday season!

 

My local grid suggesting 7-13"...that's a keeper...

 

@St Paul, I'll also be taking screenshots of that radar imagery...that stuff is gonna look redic...1-2"/hr rates for over 6+ hours and some of it will fall during the daytime which is pretty cool.

[Tom]

Updated LOT snowfall forecast....

 

[Stacsh]

[VMB443]

MKX went with a Winter Weather Advisory with 1-5 inches.

[jcwxguy]

Blizzard warning one county South... Sigh

same here

[FV-Mike]

updated maps from LOT. Crazy to see this in November

 

 

 

[jcwxguy]

18z GFShttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112418/036/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

18z GFS held serve from the 12z run. Maybe north just a smidge. Good hit for Iowa City.

[Iowawx]

GFS with 6 inches here in CR. The cutoff is so sharp. Any more slight shifts north would put CR into the heavier bands. 

[jcwxguy]

Rdps

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112418/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 finally loaded

 

[VMB443]

Fv3 finally loaded

 

I’ll take this please.