11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM going a bit west no? E IA crusher.

[bud2380]

If I get 25.3" tomorrow as the NAM shows I'll just retire from storm tracking as it will never get better than that.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112500/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[hlcater]

0z NAM going a bit west no? E IA crusher.

Absolutely did. Northern dry air mass didn’t really move so the cutoff is more or less the same.

[Money]

Literally like 30 mile shift is all I need

[bud2380]

3k NAM is showing .74" of freezing rain accumulation in Iowa City which is destroying the snow output.  That's not going to happen obviously as there isn't expected to be much if any freezing rain.  

[hlcater]

Literally like 30 mile shift is all I need

10 mile shift here.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nam models are heart breaking here

[jcwxguy]

Latest hrrr

 

[bud2380]

3k NAM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018112500/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gabel23]

It’s looking like Omaha people and myself will be rooting for a small shift north by 20 miles. Crazy and painful watching just how close we are from cashing in big. Just don’t shift 20 miles the other way and give me nothing!

[Stormhunter87]

Currently I'll cling to the hrrr lol

[snowstorm83]

That cutoff in Central and Eastern IA is nuts. If it's similar to that, someone is going to have the weather heartbreak of their life. 

[Yerf]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DszV63hWwAIs7iT?format=jpg

[Bryan1117]

Currently I'll cling to the hrrr lol

I agree, those recent NAM model runs are a bit frustrating for all of us in Omaha. However I could totally see us getting the shaft once again, ugh.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Meanwhile, east I sit on the sidelines just hoping to get a decent track (not much north of I-70). The 18z GEFS seem to be pretty much set up to IL, and east of there spread increases but still look to target a KTOL destination. That should be far enough south of mby to get in on decent snows but still waiting for something other than the Euro to show that.

 

 

Also, even tho the SLP isn't shown to weaken, the 10m winds in SMI are a fraction of what they are in NE to NIL. Any thoughts on that part of the storm?

[Stacsh]

I’m hoping for this system to laugh in the face of GRR forecasters who are acting like this will be nothing in Mid-Michigan

[jaster220]

On a side note, I don't think I've ever seen 60 users in here at one time??

[Stacsh]

Everyone I’ve talked to near Grand Rapids don’t even know a storm is coming.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Meanwhile, east I sit on the sidelines just hoping to get a decent track (not much north of I-70). The 18z GEFS seem to be pretty much set up to IL, and east of there spread increases but still look to target a KTOL destination. That should be far enough south of mby to get in on decent snows but still waiting for something other than the Euro to show that.

 

 

Also, even tho the SLP isn't shown to weaken, the 10m winds in SMI are a fraction of what they are in NE to NIL. Any thoughts on that part of the storm?

I’d wait and see what the Euro shows tonight before jumping to any conclusions. That model has the best physics. As for wind, we have a frictionless lake which aides in maximizing wind production.

[Stormhunter87]

I agree, those recent NAM model runs are a bit frustrating for all of us in Omaha. However I could totally see us getting the shaft once again, ugh.

I should accept it because I have see it all to often. Worse then following noreasters when I lived in DC.

[Madtown]

wow new nams get msn in snow again? any truth to it who knows????

[Niko]

Everyone I’ve talked to near Grand Rapids don’t even know a storm is coming.

[jaster220]

I’m hoping for this system to laugh in the face of GRR forecasters who are acting like this will be nothing in Mid-Michigan

 

How long have you been around there/SWMI? This is the classic GRR has their head up their a$$ scenario. Seems like every time we get a big dog on a holiday this happens. Happened for New Years Eve '13, Superbowl Storm '15, and now this at Thanksgiving weekend. I guess they aren't Chicago so they don't have to hear any outcry from millions of peeps.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Meanwhile, east I sit on the sidelines just hoping to get a decent track (not much north of I-70). The 18z GEFS seem to be pretty much set up to IL, and east of there spread increases but still look to target a KTOL destination. That should be far enough south of mby to get in on decent snows but still waiting for something other than the Euro to show that.

 

 

Also, even tho the SLP isn't shown to weaken, the 10m winds in SMI are a fraction of what they are in NE to NIL. Any thoughts on that part of the storm?

I also think the storm maximizes it’s strengh before hitting MI. You can see the low get stretched out a tad as it crosses into MI.

[jaster220]

Everyone I’ve talked to near Grand Rapids don’t even know a storm is coming.

 

 

You're laughing, but it's total BS that they don't at least have a SWS high-lighting the risk over their entire CWA. Totally unacceptable imho

[jaster220]

I also think the storm maximizes it’s strengh before hitting MI. You can see the low get stretched out a tad as it crosses into MI.

 

Interestingly, a long-time Met was saying that should actually aid in the warm layer collapsing rapidly eastward, allowing a faster change-over. He thought 8-12" across SMI was a reasonable call. As you've said, we'll see soon enough.

[Bryan1117]

I should accept it because I have see it all to often. Worse then following noreasters when I lived in DC.

Outside of the Christmas Eve surprise snowstorm a few years ago, the Omaha metro seems to be getting missed more and more by the big storms... last year it was to the north, and this year it’s to the south.

 

I am not gonna complain because there’s nothing we can do about it, and it’s way too early in the Winter season to get too frustrated about missing out on a snowstorm. Still some time for this thing to come north a bit and get the Omaha metro in on a little action (even though my gut instinct says we are going to get an inch or two at best).

[CentralNebWeather]

My relatives were driving back from Lincoln today to Central Nebraska. They said all the overhead signs said blizzard warning coming at midnight. Shout out to Nebraska Department of Roads for getting the word out. Our town was just nuts today at grocery stores and gas stations. A blizzard warning gets people’s attention around here.

[jaster220]

I’m hoping for this system to laugh in the face of GRR forecasters who are acting like this will be nothing in Mid-Michigan

 

See my other post, but this is also a GRR thing, especially down here in their SE counties (aka non-LES counties). They turn a blind eye to synoptic events that don't reach up to GR proper. Idk how many times they finally issued headlines or upgraded to a Warning only after most of the damage was done. Happened with the Nov 29, 2011 storm now that I think back on it. Perfect example. This one's likely to actually hit up your way much worse than down here, so this WWA down-playing is a total head scratch

[Bryan1117]

My relatives were driving back from Lincoln today to Central Nebraska. They said all the overhead signs said blizzard warning coming at midnight. Shout out to Nebraska Department of Roads for getting the word out. Our town was just nuts today at grocery stores and gas stations. A blizzard warning gets people’s attention around here.

That’s good to hear... I know a lot of people altered their travel plans and traveled today instead of tomorrow. Definitely better to be more safe than sorry with storms like this. Even though it won’t be as bad here tomorrow the way it looks, I am planning on hunkering down at home and staying off the roads.

[Stacsh]

True. They are actually talking up the lake effect that follows more.

[CentralNebWeather]

That’s good to hear... I know a lot of people altered their travel plans and traveled today instead of tomorrow. Definitely better to be more safe than sorry with storms like this. Even though it won’t be as bad here tomorrow the way it looks, I am planning on hunkering down at home and staying off the roads.

Good plan. I was also just thinking of the amount of college students that would be heading back to their colleges and universities tomorrow to end the Thanksgiving holiday break. I hope they left today.

[snowman1]

Euro blockbuster N Chicago-land

 

Good lord. I am located dead on that 22. Where do I sign?

[gabel23]

Call me crazy but I think the rain is transitioning quicker in central Nebraska. I checked ord and broken bow’s observations and they are reporting snow. That would be great for us further east.

[bud2380]

RGEM is running.  Another crush job for Iowa city and points on south in Iowa. 

[bud2380]

ICON

 

[bud2380]

RGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112500/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[gabel23]

RGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018112500/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Which one is more reliable/closest to the euro?! I’ll take the rgem and run with it.

[bud2380]

18z Euro. Definitely not as north as every other model.

 

[jaster220]

..and you thought I was only kidding about a Low Party at my place