11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Tom]

Tom do you have a way to zoom into my area on that 6z Euro?

At the time, the maps were not fully loaded yet and I had to leave the house and head to the gym....here you go...

[Tom]

Mike Hammernick just mentioned their RPM model is hinting at Lehs for Lake/Cook and bumping up totals close to 10” at ORD. That would be a bonus. I can only imagine what this would have been like if temps were a few degrees colder.

[WBadgersW]

This is laughable. Its back to a nuisance snowfall up here.

[jaster220]

I wake up to a BOOK out of GRR, but still no watch or warning. WWA blankets everything from my office. As said, gotta be staring a solid 12+ in the face to get a watch-->warning scenario outta that office. They chuck a bone mentioning a possible bump to warning (which should happen somewhere in the CWA) when things become blatantly obvious to them. Same office, same old approach, lol.

 

 

I bolded the best stuff:

 

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

All eyes are on the deepening low pressure system currently entering
southeastern Kansas which is poised to lead to wintry weather across
the Lower Great Lakes tonight and into Monday. Forecast model
guidance is now consistent in showing the low tracking through
through Columbia MO early this afternoon to Lafayette IN toward
midnight tonight and Toledo OH by daybreak Monday. The one exception
continues to be the ECMWF which has a forecast track still slightly
further south. Regardless, synoptic-scale support characterized by a
negatively-tilted shortwave trough and weakly coupled upper-level
jets will allow the low to strengthen as it travels toward the Great
Lakes with an associated band of heavy snow along the northwestern
flank.

Compared to 24 hours ago, the axis of heaviest snowfall has shifted
south now favoring the I-96 corridor southward toward I-94. The
initial precipitation type is still expected to be rain but a quick
change over to snow is expected owing to the combination of cold air
sinking into the Great Lakes and heavy precipitation rates. Speaking
of the latter...impressive frontogenetical forcing below and
encompassing the DGZ combined with thermal instability above the
low- level lifting layer suggests that snowfall rates may exceed
1-2"/hr in banded features as the deformation band pivots from
northern Illinois toward Lower Michigan. While both the 12Z
Saturday and more recent 00Z suites of model guidance suggest the
deformation band will weaken as it pivots into Lower Michigan (as
evident by ubiquitously lower QPF of 0.5-0.8" instead of north of
1.0" as previously indicated), there is still enough signal in
forecast upward motion in the DGZ that localized intense banding
may continue into Lower Michigan promoting swath or two of heavier
snowfall. So, total snow accumulations of 3-5" are still in order
across a good chunk of our forecast area with a localized swath
or two of 6-9" possible. It`s worth noting the 00Z model guidance
shares impressive consistency in one such band from roughly
Holland to South Haven northeastward toward Grand Rapids. Another
band may feasibly set-up along I-94 should rain change to snow
fast enough.

The storm is moving slower than previously expected with model
guidance now suggesting the heaviest precipitation will occur from
roughly 3Z/10PM to 18Z/1PM Monday. An even later arrival is
possible, meaning that both the Monday morning and evening
commutes may be impacted by the system.

So, with all of that in mind and another night of coordination
with WPC and our neighboring offices, we opted to expand the
winter weather advisory to cover all of western Lower Michigan
(except Jackson county where a switch from rain to snow will be
late). We also pushed back and split up the winter weather
advisory, with the earliest group along I-96 starting at 00Z/7PM
tonight. Note that the combination of (1) the heavy, wet nature of
the snow, (2) timing of the heaviest snow during the Monday
morning and possibly extending into the evening commutes after a
holiday weekend, and (3) the fact this is the first snowstorm of
the year, may warrant an upgrade to a winter storm warning for a
small portion of the area later today if confidence continues to
increase in the location of localized banding.

There`s no rest for the weary as northerly flow Monday afternoon
will quickly back northwesterly after sunset enabling for bands of
lake effect snow to impact most of the Lake Michigan shore. A
notable uptick in LES intensity is expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening as a vorticity maxima embedded in the broad troughiness
aloft pivots south over Lake Michigan allowing for deep lift into
the DGZ and rising inversion heights. Moderate snow accumulations
and minor impacts to travel are possible west of US-131 which may
require additional winter headlines. The LES is expected to wane
Wednesday afternoon as dry air advects from the west and heights
rise aloft.

It appears that we`ll continue the active pattern toward the end of
the week with additional chances for precipitation.

&&

[St Paul Storm]

Good luck to everyone downstream today. Meanwhile I’ll be raking leaves and draining the gas out of the lawn mower. Ha.

[Minny_Weather]

Hearing reports of 3" in Lincoln. Hope it was just a bad measurement, that would be an utter disappointment.

[snowstorm83]

Looks like about 3" to me and winding down. Airport probably got less since it's in the northwest corner of the city. I'm glad I wasn't completely shafted, but if it's another winter with just 2-4" events then I'll be disappointed. Still plenty of time for a big dog I guess. 

[Bryan1117]

Hearing reports of 3" in Lincoln. Hope it was just a bad measurement, that would be an utter disappointment.

Probably is about right... 1 to maybe 2 inches at most on the south side of Omaha, sounds like the north side of the metro got less than an inch.

 

This storm sucked for East Central Nebraska, it was fun to track at first but so frustrating in the end. Glad we should have plenty more opportunities this Winter.

[bud2380]

Wow this cutoff means business. It’s finally snowing here but not sure how long it will last

[CentralNebWeather]

I may have gotten 2” at most. Not to far south and east of me got hit harder. I70 closed in much of Kansas. I kept hoping for a move south but it ended up too far south for our area. Well time to move on and hope for better next time.

[jaster220]

HRRR suggesting barely any rain on the onset around Chicago and transitions to snow between 7:00-8:00pm....man, look at those thunderstorms wrapping into the cold sector.  Thundersnow is going to be a real possibility...

 

 

Dude! You've gotta be stoked for this first storm of the season! I had to save that LOT storm high-lights graphic as something I'd love to see here some time. Your early onset of winter was a great call buddy. Not sure what ORD needs for snowiest November, but I'm feeling good that a top-5 here should be a lock, and all time best not outta the question by the 30th. Also glad for the overnight timing with the RN-->SN transition concerns. Ofc, the comparisons over your way are with GHD/SB storms of recent memory, but a much better analog for the time of year and style of storm would be Dec 15, 1987 when ORD got crushed by some of the most intense conditions known in Chicago-land. Has this been a great holiday week of tracking fun, or what?

[jaster220]

4-7 inches for my area...not too shabby for this time of the year

 

Not shabby at all by Nov standards. Congrats on joining the party there buddy. With the recent Nov big dog just 3 yrs ago (what I call the freakish storm) it's not the snow totals that will be the big story, it's the dynamics of the storm, again by Nov stds, that I'm getting really stoked for. Haven't seen this around here since the 80's and then it was never so early in the season. My memory of the Dec 15, 1987 bomb is vivid. That one was stronger with easterly winds ripping and about 3" of mix, followed by regular thundershowers, followed by 2" of huge fatty flakes on a SW wind (rarity) as the SLP occluded over the Mitt. I really really prefer dynamic storms like we had in the Lakes/OHV in my youth and seem to hit west or east of this region mostly these days. Except tonight/tomorrow it's our turn again! Good Luck ovva there!

[ToastedRavs]

Barely an inch, if that for me. Friends live 8 miles SE of me, already have 4". 8 miles. Screw you cutoff! Oh well, on to the next. Best of luck to those who don't live on the cutoff line. Enjoy!

[Iowawx]

Whatever. It looks like I might not get anything from this system. Nothing can ever just go right for snowstorms in Iowa. Illinois always gets them and I’m so sick of it. I sure hope this is not a sign of things to come this winter.

 

Cedar Rapids Iowa is absolutely the worst town to live in for a weather watcher. We just can’t get anything here.

[Niko]

Its coming to the point where it will be soon a nowcast model time.

[Niko]

Another tick south and my area will see some heavy amts of snow. So far, not too bad. I'll take 4-8" and run w it.

[Niko]

GFS went south by couple of miles.....sweet

[Tom]

Dude! You've gotta be stoked for this first storm of the season! I had to save that LOT storm high-lights graphic as something I'd love to see here some time. Your early onset of winter was a great call buddy. Not sure what ORD needs for snowiest November, but I'm feeling good that a top-5 here should be a lock, and all time best not outta the question by the 30th. Also glad for the overnight timing with the RN-->SN transition concerns. Ofc, the comparisons over your way are with GHD/SB storms of recent memory, but a much better analog for the time of year and style of storm would be Dec 15, 1987 when ORD got crushed by some of the most intense conditions known in Chicago-land. Has this been a great holiday week of tracking fun, or what?

 

Thanks Jaster!  I feel very fortunate and lucky to be in the right location and be able to experience such a powerhouse storm in late November.  My gut has been telling since way back in late Spring that North America, including the CONUS, would be the hot spot of an extreme winter.  This month has not let us down.  BTW, to the bolded above...I just saved LOT's Situation Report and tucked it into a file saved for this winter!  

 

What a treat this has become since I began tracking this system over a week ago when I wasn't to confident of much of an impactful storm around here.  Great way to kick of the holiday season around Chitown!.  Ok, I got make some finishing touches outside and I got to boogie down into the city for a bit before the snow begins.  Check back in here later.

 

Before I head out, I read this part of LOT's discussion as they may upgrade into a Blizzard Warning this afternoon...we'll see...

 

 

 

Near white-out conditions will be possible,

and an upgrade to Blizzard Warnings is not out of the question

later today, though in collaboration with surrounding WFO`s we

elected to allow day shifts to make that call depending on how the

storm develops. 

[jaster220]

Another tick south and my area will see some heavy amts of snow. So far, not too bad. I'll take 4-8" and run w it.

 

Kinda feel bad for our friends out west with these last minute south trends. That happened a lot in my past living in SEMI but at least I didn't have a week's worth of tracking invested back then.

 

Latest HRRR showing some shades of 12+ greens showing up in SWMI now. I could deal with an over-achiever

 

[Sciascia]

Newest HRDPS is still spitting out insane numbers of both precip and snow.

[Niko]

Kinda feel bad for our friends out west with these last minute south trends. That happened a lot in my past living in SEMI but at least I didn't have a week's worth of tracking invested back then.

 

Latest HRRR showing some shades of 12+ greens showing up in SWMI now. I could deal with an over-achiever

 

I agree.

 

I can see your area overachieving this(12"+). Im thinking by the 4pm discussion, I will see new warnings here

[jaster220]

WPC's d1 map has me right on the edge of their hatching, but they also have mby under snow for the next 3 days! Welcome back winter!

 

[jaster220]

Newest HRDPS is still spitting out insane numbers of both precip and snow.

 

Sweetness for you N IL guys! So great to get a storm that's not on life-support as it heads up the OHV to the Lakes. I think I hear angels singing..oh wait, that's my Christmas music playing..nevva mind

[Tom]

Newest HRDPS is still spitting out insane numbers of both precip and snow.

Now, those are some lolipop #'s....from past experience, when the higher rez models spit out these redic totals its really an indication of intense banding setting up across our entire area.  I can't wait to see what the radar is going to look like later tonight.

[jaster220]

GFS went south by couple of miles.....sweet

 

Yep, and the V3 coming south and hotness as well. Not that it's the time range for globals, but they finally catch on at the last moment. Kinda like my NWS office in that respect.

[Tony]

Don't want to get greedy but it would be nice for a quicker changeover. Hate to waste precip on plain old rain

[jaster220]

d*mn, just peeked and the 12k NAM has me at a foot by 10 am tomorrow morning, with possible LES to follow Monday night thru Wed?

[Tony]

Lake enhancement pretty well defined on the models. Nice benefit for those closer to the lake.

[jaster220]

Don't want to get greedy but it would be nice for a quicker changeover. Hate to waste precip on plain old rain

 

I think current precip is a bit ahead of schedule, thus bonus qpf that shouldn't kill your chances for great totals once it does the flip

[jaster220]

Is it my imagination, or is the GOMEX trying to get in on the act with some moisture feed? Thought I saw a post that this was all pacific origins

[jaster220]

With the southward expansion of BWarn's in KS, feeling pretty good that Chicago gets an upgrade, and SWMI goes Storm Warning with "near bliz conditions". Gotta get my last outside decoration work wrapped-up then get back here for a fun-filled afternoon

[Tony]

I think current precip is a bit ahead of schedule, thus bonus qpf that shouldn't kill your chances for great totals once it does the flip

If it was snow I would be outside putting up lights but not gonna happen with the rain.

[jaster220]

Appears to be running on the southern end of earlier guidance entering MO. So many SR models jumped the SLP north at this point. This looks better for Chicago and us peeps in the Mitt.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/pmsl.gif

[westMJim]

I wake up to a BOOK out of GRR, but still no watch or warning. WWA blankets everything from my office. As said, gotta be staring a solid 12+ in the face to get a watch-->warning scenario outta that office. They chuck a bone mentioning a possible bump to warning (which should happen somewhere in the CWA) when things become blatantly obvious to them. Same office, same old approach, lol.

 

 

I bolded the best stuff:

 

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday)

Issued at 314 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

 

All eyes are on the deepening low pressure system currently entering

southeastern Kansas which is poised to lead to wintry weather across

the Lower Great Lakes tonight and into Monday. Forecast model

guidance is now consistent in showing the low tracking through

through Columbia MO early this afternoon to Lafayette IN toward

midnight tonight and Toledo OH by daybreak Monday. The one exception

continues to be the ECMWF which has a forecast track still slightly

further south. Regardless, synoptic-scale support characterized by a

negatively-tilted shortwave trough and weakly coupled upper-level

jets will allow the low to strengthen as it travels toward the Great

Lakes with an associated band of heavy snow along the northwestern

flank.

 

Compared to 24 hours ago, the axis of heaviest snowfall has shifted

south now favoring the I-96 corridor southward toward I-94. The

initial precipitation type is still expected to be rain but a quick

change over to snow is expected owing to the combination of cold air

sinking into the Great Lakes and heavy precipitation rates. Speaking

of the latter...impressive frontogenetical forcing below and

encompassing the DGZ combined with thermal instability above the

low- level lifting layer suggests that snowfall rates may exceed

1-2"/hr in banded features as the deformation band pivots from

northern Illinois toward Lower Michigan. While both the 12Z

Saturday and more recent 00Z suites of model guidance suggest the

deformation band will weaken as it pivots into Lower Michigan (as

evident by ubiquitously lower QPF of 0.5-0.8" instead of north of

1.0" as previously indicated), there is still enough signal in

forecast upward motion in the DGZ that localized intense banding

may continue into Lower Michigan promoting swath or two of heavier

snowfall. So, total snow accumulations of 3-5" are still in order

across a good chunk of our forecast area with a localized swath

or two of 6-9" possible. It`s worth noting the 00Z model guidance

shares impressive consistency in one such band from roughly

Holland to South Haven northeastward toward Grand Rapids. Another

band may feasibly set-up along I-94 should rain change to snow

fast enough.

 

The storm is moving slower than previously expected with model

guidance now suggesting the heaviest precipitation will occur from

roughly 3Z/10PM to 18Z/1PM Monday. An even later arrival is

possible, meaning that both the Monday morning and evening

commutes may be impacted by the system.

 

So, with all of that in mind and another night of coordination

with WPC and our neighboring offices, we opted to expand the

winter weather advisory to cover all of western Lower Michigan

(except Jackson county where a switch from rain to snow will be

late). We also pushed back and split up the winter weather

advisory, with the earliest group along I-96 starting at 00Z/7PM

tonight. Note that the combination of (1) the heavy, wet nature of

the snow, (2) timing of the heaviest snow during the Monday

morning and possibly extending into the evening commutes after a

holiday weekend, and (3) the fact this is the first snowstorm of

the year, may warrant an upgrade to a winter storm warning for a

small portion of the area later today if confidence continues to

increase in the location of localized banding.

 

There`s no rest for the weary as northerly flow Monday afternoon

will quickly back northwesterly after sunset enabling for bands of

lake effect snow to impact most of the Lake Michigan shore. A

notable uptick in LES intensity is expected Tuesday afternoon and

evening as a vorticity maxima embedded in the broad troughiness

aloft pivots south over Lake Michigan allowing for deep lift into

the DGZ and rising inversion heights. Moderate snow accumulations

and minor impacts to travel are possible west of US-131 which may

require additional winter headlines. The LES is expected to wane

Wednesday afternoon as dry air advects from the west and heights

rise aloft.

 

It appears that we`ll continue the active pattern toward the end of

the week with additional chances for precipitation.

 

&&

There is a new forecaster at GRR if you noticed their discussions have become much shorter. I think in the past they have pulled the trigger too soon on issuing winter storm watches only to back off to a WWA later on. The one issue I have with today's zone forecast is snow amounts they have for the lake effect on Monday night and Tuesday. That is the first time in my memory when less then one inch amounts have been noted for a lake effect set up. Heck we could see more from the lake effect then from the "storm" we shall see. 

[Money]

Appears to be running on the southern end of earlier guidance entering MO. So many SR models jumped the SLP north at this point. This looks better for Chicago and us peeps in the Mitt.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s4/pmsl.gif

Looks awful for you

[Tom]

If it was snow I would be outside putting up lights but not gonna happen with the rain.

Many folks in my neighborhood have yet to put up their lights and I think everyone has been caught off guard with this storm or just didn't believe it would happen.  

[jcwxguy]

My parents in McPherson Kansas went from not being in anything to blizzard warning and 4-8"

[Niko]

Sweetness for you N IL guys! So great to get a storm that's not on life-support as it heads up the OHV to the Lakes. I think I hear angels singing..oh wait, that's my Christmas music playing..nevva mind

:lol:

[Niko]

Yep, and the V3 coming south and hotness as well. Not that it's the time range for globals, but they finally catch on at the last moment. Kinda like my NWS office in that respect.

It just keeps getting betta n betta

[Niko]

Is it my imagination, or is the GOMEX trying to get in on the act with some moisture feed? Thought I saw a post that this was all pacific origins

You have a map of that amigo