11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[Stormhunter87]

mixing here in western sharpy county

Nice going to go check now then

[Stormhunter87]

A little sleet in Papillon now so we are close. Before the grided output but within the timeframe oax called for

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Getting concerned about all this sleet falling. Needs to hurry its a** up

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Whatever..I'm ready for this D**n storm to be over with.

[snowstorm83]

Whatever..I'm ready for this d**n storm to be over with.

Sad!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Sorry for my ranting lol. But this blows! We are getting our heaviest precipitation right now of the entire event in the form of sleet. A winter weather enthusiasts nightmare scenario lol

[snowstorm83]

It's all snow in Lincoln right now.

[jcwxguy]

It's all snow in Lincoln right now.

and Gretna

[Bryan1117]

All snow here now and coming down pretty good I might add. Craig, relax man- it’s only November buddy.

[snowstorm83]

Coating on grass/elevated surfaces, though it's too warm to stick on roads and pavement.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

All snow here now and coming down pretty good I might add. Craig, relax man- it’s only November buddy.

Yeah i remember that line quite well almost every month of last winter lol. Blizzard warnings dont come around too often. Oh well. Best thing to do is go to bed and see what happened lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Weird now after my ranting the HRRR wants to give us another 3 inches here lol. Im done with this one. I'll just wake up and we'll see what happened lol

[snowstorm83]

Looking blizzardy out there. Though I feel like we're behind at this point, but radar looks good still at least.

[VMB443]

Milwaukee upgrades from an Advisory to a Warning - saying 4-7 inches with winds gusts at 25-35 mph. Nice to move “up” rather than down as a storm approaches!

[Tom]

So I unfortunately had a family emergency tonight and had to fly out of town to Texas I’m rooting for my town tho so I can come back to a winter wonderland Also, Nebraska! I bess be seeing some videos/pics! Enjoy guys.

Hope all is well buddy. Safe travels.

[Tom]

"All systems a Go!"  Good luck to everyone who gets hit by this one.  It doesn't happen often to see such a dynamic and powerful storm target our region in the month of November.  For that reason, I'm going to appreciate this experience and "live in the moment".  Models seem to be delaying the onset of the snow after 6:00pm local time which is kinda nice bc it'll accumulate better given marginal temps, but on the flip side, I'm going to have to pull an all-nighter!

 

Power outages are a real threat from this system...I have not seen such strong wording out from LOT in years...prob not since the GHD-1 Blitz back in 2011 or the Super Bowl Blitz of '14???  Nonetheless, they pound the "B" word pretty adamantly.

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

2"/hr snowfall rates????  Ya buddy...this will certainly be a memorable storm for Chicago and the rest of N IL!

 

 

 

[Tom]

HRRR suggesting barely any rain on the onset around Chicago and transitions to snow between 7:00-8:00pm....man, look at those thunderstorms wrapping into the cold sector.  Thundersnow is going to be a real possibility...

 

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like the best reflectivities passed Lincoln when it was still rain. Beatrice has those reflectivities right now but it's snow. This is likely to be an underperformer for everyone. The city of Lincoln snow website is calling for 4" now. I think OAX's latest graphic giving Lincoln 4-6" and Beatrice 8-12" is pretty spot on.

[Minny_Weather]

DISCUSSION...Short-term guidance remains consistent with the

forecast for a vigorous shortwave trough, now located over eastern

CO, to emerge eastward across KS overnight, with deepening of this

system between 12-18Z as it reaches eastern KS/western MO by late

morning. Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a band of

precipitation had developed from north-central KS to southeast NE.

This corridor in the northern part of the discussion area is

expected to be the first southwest-northeast oriented zone to change

to snow and increase in rates as surface temperatures fall through

the lower 30s to upper 20s F by 11-12Z. This same trend with snow

developing across the rest of the discussion area after daybreak

from central to northeast KS and far northwest MO to southwest IA

will occur as the surface low shifts east-northeast into MO. This

will allow low-level winds on its north-northwest periphery to back

to northerly and strengthen, ushering in colder temperatures, and

supporting a high likelihood for reduced visibilities in whiteout

conditions.

 

Meanwhile, an increase in upward vertical motion through the

dendritic-growth zone per forecast soundings is expected as, 1) the

shortwave trough deepens with eastward progression and 2) within the

exit region of a strengthening 500-mb 100-kt jet spreading across

northeast KS/northwest MO this morning. This factor which is

expected to become stronger by 15-18Z suggests snowfall rates could

be up to 2 inches per hour, generally north of a line from KSLN to

KSTJ to 25 S KLWD, while the initial aforementioned band of snow

could have rates up to 1 inch per hour. Forecast soundings also

indicated weak elevated instability rooted around 600 mb, given the

likelihood of steepening midlevel lapse rates (around 8 C/km) in the

exit region of the midlevel jet. This could enhance snowfall rates.

[Grizzcoat]

The heavier echoes in S.IA are being reported as mostly -RA with some PL and FZRA being reported. If it doesn't switch soon ; the higher totals are not going to be met.

[snowstorm83]

Yeah it's wild out there right now, but the snow shield is steadily sinking south. Hope it slows.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah it's wild out there right now, but the snow shield is steadily sinking south. Hope it slows.

This storm is about 5 hours ahead of what the models had it at.

[Tom]

Parts of E IA into W IL may end up being the big winners in terms of snowfall...I feel the NWS offices in parts of E IA/NW IL will upgrade into a Blizzard Warning later today. 

.

 

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[bud2380]

HRRR has shifted well south again. Showing the cutoff south of Iowa City. Yikes.

[Tom]

Boy, the SREF's have shot up in DVN (13.5") and at ORD (9.6")...those out near GRR (7")

[Grizzcoat]

Most of S,IA (Central and W) is finally changing over to SN from PL -RA -FZRA. There was a brief transition to SN around 4AM then some WAA moved in again and changed things back to the nasty crap, This system really has some warm air aloft in it- something that was not forecasted (PL -FZRA) here in C.IA so bear that in mind for forecasted snow totals.

[Clinton]

06z Euro...

 

Tom do you have a way to zoom into my area on that 6z Euro?

[Bryan1117]

Snow just about done here in Southwest Omaha as the dreaded northern cutoff it passing through the city a little bit earlier than expected.

 

Doesn’t look like we even will make it to 2 inches of snow here unless something changes... on to the next - good luck to the south and east everyone, time to move on from this one here.

[Grizzcoat]

Look at a radar loop out of DMX and try making a forecast for Des Moines.  24 hours ago, not now.  HA!

 

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Niko]

4-7 inches for my area...not too shabby for this time of the year

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

00z model trends with the upcoming winter storm continue to edge
generally southward it terms of low pressure track and hence the
amount of cold air that filters into the forecast area during the
period of heaviest precipitation overnight tonight into Monday
morning. This will lead to a quicker changeover to snow over a
broader portion of the area and also a slight southward shift of the
heaviest precipitation amounts. These initial trends continue to be
supported by 06z extended run of the hrrr.

 

Confidence is high that the area from north of M-59 on into the
Saginaw Valley and Thumb will achieve accumulations of 4-7 inches of
snow. Given the fact that the main timing for this event is still in
from late tonight into the first half of Monday, opted to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory from roughly M-59 north to highlight the
high potential for notable accumulations. This leaves plenty of time
to upgrade a narrower corridor to a Winter Storm Warning if trends
suggest amounts closer to 8 inches may occur anywhere within this
broader area of accumulation. At this time, confidence is low to
medium that these higher totals will occur over part of the area so
stayed tuned for any adjustments to the forecast later today.

[snowstorm83]

Still barely hanging on to good banding. Not the storm of the century or anything, but more blizzard like than the storm last year at least.

[Grizzcoat]

On a humorous note-

 

I live about 20 mins WNW of DSM. My son just texted me and said "screwed again; we are moving to Traverse City,MI".

We did get really shafted. But on to the next storm.

[Money]

Latest HRRR has zero for Milwaukee. NWS MKE forecasted 6-8+ and bumped the totals up earlier this morning

[Minny_Weather]

The band is way more narrow than models predicted, and there is absolutely no snow falling outside of the heavy swath. That's the issue.

[westMJim]

I see what a difference the new forecaster at GRR makes in our area forecast. Off to our west in Chicago land they are in a winter storm warning and there is talk of blizzard like conditions. While on our side of the lake we are in a winter weather advisory. I see there are areas to our west where up to 13+ inches are being the guessed snow fall amounts. While on our side of the lake it is only in the 3-5" range with a small area of 6-9 possible. we will have to see how this all plays out. Now to put this in perspective. Using the highest amounts in the guess of 5" at Chicago IL 10" at Rockford IL and 9" at Grand Rapids. In recorded history there have only been 6 times where 5" of more of snow has fallen in a one day storm in November at Chicago 2015, 1975, 1951, 1940, 1895 and 1891. At Rockford IL if the 10" plays out there has only been 8 times ever where a one days storm has recorded 10"  there and none were in November the earliest was in December of 1987. And here in Grand Rapids we have only had 3 times where a one day storm dumped 9" or more in November. and they were all lake effect events as far as I can tell. They happened in 2014, 2000 and 2014. I can see why the GRR forecaster is some what gun shy on this storm. We will have to set back and see how this plays out. My guess is west Michigan could be under a Winter Storm Warming later today and or tonight (depending how this all pays out) Time will tell. My guess for Grand Rapids is 6"

[westMJim]

At this time my temperature is 39° so we still have a ways to go before there is any snow here in west Michigan. The wind here is light out of the NW at this time.

[Hawkeye]

I perked up a bit after seeing the NAM and HRRR taking the decent snow up through the Cedar Rapids metro on last evening's runs, but that was nothing more than a tease.  All models are going back south.  Radar shows all precip hitting a brick wall just south of Cedar Rapids.  We may not get anything at all.

[GDR]

Just got thunder and snowing real hard