Tom Posted March 25, 2014 Report Share Posted March 25, 2014 The calendar says its officially Spring, but will April bring any true Spring weather??? CFSv2 paints a glim hope of that happening during the 1st 2 weeks of April. Blocking and LRC rule the day as the same below normal temperature regime will continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GFS shows a big wet system to start off the month, especially for the western Lakes and Upper Midwest. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 I wonder if the storm system for April 1st-3rd could become a pretty big ice storm for someone, especially with the big high pressure nearby. 18z GFS had a large pocket of FZR/Sleet across WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 0z GFS is actually coming in similar and is colder than 18z. Large pocket of 6-12 inches of snow across MN/WI. The L gets to about E Neb and stalls because of the strong high nearby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 0z GFS is just crazy. I don't even know what to think of that run. Goes from E. NEB to N. IL and then heads due north while strengthening to about Milwaukee and sits overhead for 24 hours. 12+ from LSE to GB with about 5-6 here and FZR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Last couple runs of the GFS look similar to what the 12z Euro was showing but way more snow. Could become a massive cut-off low pressure over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region as we kick off April. Would be quite the opening to April. Even half those totals would be amazing for the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Yup. Certainley doesn't look "warm" in the long-range after that either. Temps in the 30's in early April is pretty cold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 -AO/-NAO and a PNA heading positive...a trough in the east, ridge in the west would support the idea of a cold start to April. Last couple runs of the GFS showing way below normal temperatures to start off the 1st week of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Money, do you see a pattern change??? I think not and its wishful thinking that its going to get warm anytime soon. Booked my plane ticket today to leave for AZ April 1st. Going to enjoy those 80's showing up next week in the desert southwest! West Coast ridge in full effect! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GGEM looks very similar to GFS. Would love to see a snowmap from Tom if he is on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GGEM takes the L to C. NEB then it develops farther south and strengthens and gets to about W/C IL and then cuts-off and gets down to about 992 in C. IL at HR 216. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Nothing special on the 00z GGEM, lots of rain...1-2" of qpf in Wisco... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 You sure about that? Check out through HR 192-204 area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 The storm on the GFS is in the HR 180-228 period, same as GGEM. GGEM has 1.0+ QPF it looks like all snow for N. IL/S. WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Ahhh, yes...sorry about that...thought it was the storm from the 31st-1st. OMG, this would be epic if it came true...IA/S WI and extreme N IL would be under a late season Glacier! LOL I hope this storm pans out for you guys who want snow when I'm out of town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Yeah, that looks more like it lol. Would be epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 So both GFS/GGEM go nuclear with snowfall amounts to open up the 1st week of April. Let's say even half of that amount even comes true, better yet, 1/3 of the amount. Who's to say I was wish casting for more snow & cold to continue in the month of April when I made that call in the beginning of March??? It's about understanding the pattern and believing what YOU see happening and not model hugging one model run from the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 It's going to be all about the blocking. After the storm goes through (HR 120-144) strong blocking comes in and basically makes the storm hit a wall out in NE etc and then re-develops farther south. This time we need blocking to be our friend if we want snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 CFSv2 has the AO tanking to around -2.0, NAO -1.5, PNA +1.0...would support enough blocking. These type of systems are very difficult to track even 2 days out but we get the idea that there is some sort of storm potential for the 1st few days of April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Ahhh, yes...sorry about that...thought it was the storm from the 31st-1st. OMG, this would be epic if it came true...IA/S WI and extreme N IL would be under a late season Glacier! LOL I hope this storm pans out for you guys who want snow when I'm out of town.That might break the record here. Sharp cutoff, but looks like Chicago/ORD area lies in the 6-12" area of that map. Would be amazing to see pan out. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 This storm can go North or South...the only point we can get from the most recent model runs is that there is a possible storm on the way as April opens. Cubs home opener is April 4th. What a scene it would be if there was snow on the field by then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GGEM ensembles are in pretty much remarkable consistency with nearly every member showing some type of storm. One had a sub 965 in Minnesota, another had a 985 in C IL. Some north/some south but nearly everyone showed a strong system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 0z euro hr 168: 987 L in NE Colorado. Blocking looks decent as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 00z Euro...weaker and takes SLP into the U.P. of MI 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 No offense Tom, but it's getting pretty annoying to read at least half of your posts where you are tooting your own horn saying, " who's been saying all along this would happen or this wouldn't happen?" those posts are just as bad as the 24weatherman posts.... We get it. You've been right a lot of the time(not really with Nebraska), but no need to point that out ALL the time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 No offense Tom, but it's getting pretty annoying to read at least half of your posts where you are tooting your own horn saying, " who's been saying all along this would happen or this wouldn't happen?" those posts are just as bad as the 24weatherman posts.... We get it. You've been right a lot of the time(not really with Nebraska), but no need to point that out ALL the time!Thanks... He rips on us for model hugging, but there have been numerous times recently where he has hammered on storms brewing only to see them die. It has been a wash rinse repeat winter, and I dont by the LRC and I sure others dont by it the way he does either, yet we dont ridicule him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Those snow maps on Weatherbell are all wet. 850 mb temps may be cold enough in WI, but the 2 m temps are not except at night around 228 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 The weatherbell snow maps suck in marginal situations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 6z GFS with 20+ for gosaints. 14 for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Those snow maps on Weatherbell are all wet. 850 mb temps may be cold enough in WI, but the 2 m temps are not except at night around 228 hours. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_204_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_216_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_228_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_TT_PN_240_0000.gif Come on Geos, you can get snow with 2M temps right around or a tad above freezing. You should know this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Money the weatherbell snow maps sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 It does, but 850 support snow from the GGEM. The ratios are probably lower than 10:1, but I don't get why Geos and you are arguing that it's not snow. GFS ensembles look decent for a lot of the area as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 This is a typical Spring time storm that can generate enough of it's "own" cold air to produce snow if it is strong enough. We saw a lot of these systems I think it was last winter that would develop in the Plains and even in TX that were cut-off and dumped heavy snows. @ NE Jeremy, wasn't expecting to get under your skin. It's important for me to get my point across and post the reality of what mother nature has in store for us instead of wishful thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 No offense Tom, but it's getting pretty annoying to read at least half of your posts where you are tooting your own horn saying, " who's been saying all along this would happen or this wouldn't happen?" those posts are just as bad as the 24weatherman posts.... We get it. You've been right a lot of the time(not really with Nebraska), but no need to point that out ALL the time! Not as annoying as Geos/weatherbell talking about how warm it's going to be in the long-range and never happening. Geos has been calling for warm temps since Feb and theweatherman called for winter to end like 3 weeks ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 And money was hitting on major snow by now so everyone was wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 And money was hitting on major snow by now so everyone was wrongLol, this was my point the other day. We've all been right and wrong this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsaw111 Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Not surprising, last I checked this wasn't a forum full of NWS meteorologists... Everyone just needs to settle down and swallow their pride. If you were good at this, you'd be doing it for a living. Half of the things people say in here are wish casting, and that's ok! just accept the fact that that's all it is, and don't act like you can predict the weather. Hell even the professionals are wrong, a lot of the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsaw111 Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Not surprising, last I checked this wasn't a forum full of NWS meteorologists... Everyone just needs to settle down and swallow their pride. If you were good at this, you'd be doing it for a living. Half of the things people say in here are wish casting, and that's ok! just accept the fact that that's all it is, and don't act like you can predict the weather. Hell even the professionals are wrong, a lot of the time.That being said, I enjoy reading this forum, and all the information it provides. Been viewing for 2 years, but just joined fully with the new site changes. Also, I am not a professional and wishcast all the time :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 12z GFS still similar. Takes a weaker L up to about NE KS and then develops farther south and takes it up into C/N IL again. 6+ for S. WI through HR 186 and still snowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 This storm is a long ways off yet but it sure looks interesting as there is plenty of qpf and cold air to dump on a few locales. If there is any consistency to this into this weekend then it will definitely be something to watch. Whether it be rain or snow there will be alot of it. Haven't looked closely but a possible ice storm as well but that is just a pure guess at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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