Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Come on Geos, you can get snow with 2M temps right around or a tad above freezing. You should know this. Not during the day in April! - that would equal a mix or plain rain. Snow doesn't stick well after a heavy rain either. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 The storm has shown on models right now would be coming through during the night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 The largest April snowstorm in the Twin Cities happened on April 14, 1983. A strong area of low pressure had ample moisture to work with and deepened over northern Iowa as it moved to the east and northeast. The event started as rain on the 13th and changed over to snow during the wee hours of April 14th. Persons in east central Minnesota were surprised to wake up to a foot of snow on the ground with brilliant morning sunshine. The grand total at the Twin Cities airport from that storm was 13.6 inches. The Metrodome deflated for the third time since its construction in this storm. (The first two times were Nov 21, 1981 and December 30, 1982.) Over 400 schools canceled class on April 14 and the University of Minnesota shut down at 2:30pm. Residential mail deliveries and pickups were canceled for only the third time in 20 years. The Twin Cities International Airport was shut down for 5 hours from 9am to 2pm on the 14th. Storm produced heavy rain the day before and twin cities got 12+ on the ground in mid April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GGEM is strong but farther south. Probably a good hit for the Chicago area, need to wait for the precip maps tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 12z GGEM...FWIW, long range patterns have been predicted extremely well utilizing the LRC/East Asian Theory this winter. Very cold run for the 1st week of April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Big thing to this point is that the models are showing some type of strong system cold enough for snow. The storm develops in the HR 126-132 range or so, so it's not like we are talking about way way out in fantasy land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GGEM Ensembles: HR 168: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=168&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm HR 180: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm HR 192: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=192&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm HR 204: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=204&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 On a side note - blocking vanishes over the North Atlantic next week while troughs are dominant along the west coast/south of AK. Replaced with troughs of Greenland further out. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 MJO is forecasted to be in Phase 2/3 in April which are cold signals for the eastern CONUS. MJO has been a "no show" all winter long but it is now waking up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Euro seems to be frozen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 On a side note - blocking vanishes over the North Atlantic next week while troughs are dominant along the west coast/south of AK. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_2_nh.gif Replaced with troughs of Greenland further out. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_3_nh.gifdon't see any blocking south of alaska so the jet stream is flowing from west to east by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 was just looking at the ao forecast that a few days after the first of april that it is going back to negative temporary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 euro run is frozen at hr 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Tom. I hope the GGEM verifies. Would be a nice snowstorm for most of Nebraska and others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 euro run is frozen at hr 24Just like how we have been all winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Tom. I hope the GGEM verifies. Would be a nice snowstorm for most of Nebraska and others.Going out on a limb here and first call is 1'-2' from Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota to central/lower Wisconsin to parts of Michigan. Northern IL will be in a tough spot with rain/snow and ice. HP to the north will keep a nice feed of cold air into this storm with plenty of abundant moisture. Hopefully this will be the last gasp of winter with a monster storm to end it! Just my take of the situation so far as the models will probably change a million times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Message on Wx Bell regarding 12z Euro: "ECMWF 12z Products delayed -- catastrophic failure at their end" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 EURO has mid 60s here sunday at least that will feel nice. If its gonna be cold next week might as well snow. I just have my doubts. 1' to 2' really??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 EURO only out to 105 on underground as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 GFS emsebles don't show much support for enough cold for next weeks storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 EURO has mid 60s here sunday at least that will feel nice. If its gonna be cold next week might as well snow. I just have my doubts. 1' to 2' really???You are in a great spot and with all this moisture I say why can't it happen. Its all going to depend on how much cold air is funneled into this system. Its a slow mover as well which will only enhance the areas that do receive snow. Maybe I'm way off on this and I will be kicking myself come next week but like you said, if its gonna be cold might as well snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 I agree with wanting the snow, but am very leary. Thicknesses on the GFS ensemble are questionable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 I admit I am grasping quite a bit here but at least there is something of interest to watch on the horizon that might/could lead to a pretty big storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Based on the ECMWF website, the 12z Euro takes SLP right thru N IL/S WI...south from its previous run. Looks like a good hit for IA/WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 If it is a moist storm it better be snow otherwise serious flooding around here. The Monday Tuesday system drops plenty of rain plus whatever falls tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 EURO out to 54 hours on WXbell.It's moving, but at a snail's pace. Cut off lows are a beast to forecast... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 CPC Week 1-2, fits in line with teleconnections and supports idea of a trough in the east, ridge in the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Looking at Wundergound thru 174hr, all of S IA is under 3-6" of snow and heading due east. Looks like it may be a good hit for N IL as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 12z Euro takes a classic bowling ball type CO LOW ejecting out of the leeward side of the Rockies just east of Denver, CO and heads due east towards KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Interesting write up from des moines:THE TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS STRONG SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT IMPACT THE FROZEN GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM FRONTS LIFTING NORTH. THIS EVENT WOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND POINTING TOWARD IOWA AND LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 so how much snow in e iowa then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Wunderground only showing maps thru 174hr, doesn't go past then. I have to wait for Wx Bell maps to load. Looks like the system intensifies as it heads east and a lot of cold air funneling into the system from the HP to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 12z Euro takes a classic bowling ball type CO LOW ejecting out of the leeward side of the Rockies just east of Denver, CO and heads due east towards KC.You have no idea how long Nebraskans have been waiting for this type of storm. Good hit for us from 12z EURO Tom?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Right now it looks like 3-6", maybe 7" for NE...I'm really hoping this system pans out for you guys out there. Wouldn't get your hopes up just yet bc this winter we have seen these type of systems 5+ days out and then turn out to be a 4 corners Pan Handle Hook. Right now there is a lot of model consistency of a CO LOW type storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Your going to love the 12z Euro Control run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 What day is this next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 Next Wed/Thu... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 18z GFS takes the L up near Chicago but has less blocking and is a tad warm overall, a lot less snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 26, 2014 Report Share Posted March 26, 2014 12Z Euro is a really snowy run. My fear is that this will be gone in a few days. Cant see us all getting 6-10+. GFS shows nothing. I have witnessed April snowstorms before, but I'm still skeptical of this. This storm would impact us April 2-3. If this keeps showing up, then we might be on to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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