April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

6z GFS went way north with the 2nd wave.

[Tony]

It looks like the 1st wave(6z GFS) puts down snow or ice so back and forth the models go.

[Money]

12z GFS has a stronger 1st wave producing 2-3 inches of snow from IA up into WI. (4-6 up from about FDL to GB)

 

2nd wave developing in N. Texas (1002.9 at HR 114)

[Money]

2nd wave goes from OK/TX border (1000.5 HR 123 to 996.6 just E. of STL at HR 144) 

 

2nd wave produces 3-5 from IA east into N. IL 

[Money]

GGEM doesn't even have a storm. It goes from being way north to being suppressed and weak lol

[Geos]

Would likely be an "on the grass" event given it spans the daylight hours - if it happens like that.

[Money]

Would likely be an "on the grass" event given it spans the daylight hours - if it happens like that.

 

Doubt it. Snow can stick anywhere regardless of the time of day or year if it snows hard enough.

[Geos]

Doubt it. Snow can stick anywhere regardless of the time of day or year if it snows hard enough.

 

Lol, I have yet to see snow on the pavement in April during the day! 

The pavement is going to warm up between now and then too. Temps will be marginal with this system.

[bud2380]

GGEM doesn't even have a storm. It goes from being way north to being suppressed and weak lol

A hour 132 ggem has a low in Oklahoma with heavy snow in Nebraska. Waiting for hour 144 to update

[Tony]

Lol, I have yet to see snow on the pavement in April during the day!

The pavement is going to warm up between now and then too. Temps will be marginal with this system.

It was the first week of April back in the early 80's and we had close to a foot of snow. My friends and I were just coming back from Florida and we had a heck of a time driving from Indiana to Chicago. So yes it can stick no matter what the temp is as it was probably in the 60's prior to that storm.

[bud2380]

Well last year on may 1st many areas in Iowa saw heavy snow make roads slick. Some places reported 11" of snow. But it is true that it does have to snow hard during the day for it to do a lot of accumulations on the road this time of year. At night not as hard. Also hour 144 on the gem appears to show widespread snow in the Midwest

[Geos]

It was the first week of April back in the early 80's and we had close to a foot of snow. My friends and I were just coming back from Florida and we had a heck of a time driving from Indiana to Chicago. So yes it can stick no matter what the temp is as it was probably in the 60's prior to that storm.

 

Haha, not that old to remember that one!

Well the only noteworthy April snow (day) that I remember was 04/11/07 and I remember shoveling what fell up to about 9am. Once the driveway was clear it snowed another 6 hours, but it didn't accumulate on the driveway more than a minute or so. Temp was 32-34° for the whole event and I remember during light radar returns it would turn to rain. Another thing that is common with daytime April snow systems - it has to snow moderate to hard just to prevent snow flake melting before they reach ground level.

[Money]

Well last year on may 1st many areas in Iowa saw heavy snow make roads slick. Some places reported 11" of snow. But it is true that it does have to snow hard during the day for it to do a lot of accumulations on the road this time of year. At night not as hard. Also hour 144 on the gem appears to show widespread snow in the Midwest

 

Yeah B/W maps suck. Looks like maybe 3-5 from IA/MN/NE/WI 

 

I'm sure Tom will post the maps tho

[Geos]

GGEM keeps more of the snow in Iowa and Nebraska. Runs out of gas as it crosses the MS River. - few inches along I-80 though.

[Tony]

Haha, not that old to remember that one!

Well the only noteworthy April snow (day) that I remember was 04/11/07 and I remember shoveling what fell up to about 9am. Once the driveway was clear it snowed another 6 hours, but it didn't accumulate on the driveway more than a minute or so. Temp was 32-34° for the whole event and I remember during light radar returns it would turn to rain. Another thing that is common with daytime April snow systems - it has to snow moderate to hard just to prevent snow flake melting before they reach ground level.

I guess I am dating myself!

[Money]

Ukie 994 in NE Iowa at HR 144

[Money]

ggem ensembles are mostly farther north/stronger than op and gfs ensembles are pretty similar to 12z op gfs 

[Money]

Euro is way north as well.

 

euro/ukie vs gfs/ggem it seems 

[Geos]

This was the GGEM.

 

[Tony]

Euro is way north as well.

 

euro/ukie vs gfs/ggem it seems

I would say Ukie is admired as much as the NAM

[james1976]

gfs has a wed system and a fri system. which one is everyone talking about?

[james1976]

th_snow gets destroyed early week. 3 systems total.

[Money]

This was the GGEM.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_000-120_0000.gif

 

Why do you only go to HR 120 when the system isn't until 144-156 hours out?

[Money]

Here's the whole system:

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_000-240_0000.gif

[Geos]

Why do you only go to HR 120 when the system isn't until 144-156 hours out?

 

I thought the first map that popped up was the whole run.

[Money]

Lol, I have yet to see snow on the pavement in April during the day! 

The pavement is going to warm up between now and then too. Temps will be marginal with this system.

 

NE Ohio is getting hit good right now and the snow is accumulating on all surfaces right now.

 

It's been proven time and time again that snow will accumulate no matter what if temps are cold enough and if it snows hard enough. 

[tim the weatherman]

this is the current watches,warnings and advisorys in the ushttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

[Geos]

NE Ohio is getting hit good right now and the snow is accumulating on all surfaces right now.

 

It's been proven time and time again that snow will accumulate no matter what if temps are cold enough and if it snows hard enough. 

 

Yes, but they haven't experienced temperatures like there will be tomorrow and Monday. Paved surface should be able to warm easily into the 70s and retain enough heat so salt doesn't have to be used. My neighbor who works for the township said that pavement temps are already well above freezing and doesn't expect to use anymore salt this season. That was his take and I figure that sounds legit.

Roads during the day should be a non issue.

[CentralNebWeather]

Another day, another red flag warning in Nebraska. It never ends. We could be in real trouble this summer if this pattern doesn't change. I have cracks in the soil in my backyard.

[Geos]

Big shift NW for the GFS this afternoon.

 

[tim the weatherman]

was just looking at the mjo and shifting to phase 4 (within the next two weeks we will have a pattren shift so troughing in the west and ridging in the east).7-8-1 are the best for ridging on/near the West Coast, which allows troughs to amplify in the in the Eastern half. 3-4-5-6 are the torchy phases, as they tend to produce troughing in the west and ridging in the east.

[NEJeremy]

Anyone have the snowfall maps from the GGEM and the Euro from todays 12Z runs?

[Money]

Huge freezing rain event on the 0z GFS. Over 1+ qpf for S. WI. 

[Money]

GGEM takes the low on a similar path as the GFS just slower/weaker and a bit warmer

[clintbeed1993]

Wow!  This pretty much sums up Nebraska for the past 4 years.  Our drought is going to get horrible if we can't break this pattern.

[Money]

GFS with 1.12 QPF of FZR for MKE

 

0.6+ for MSN.

[Geos]

6z GFS came in weaker and south.

 

 

So far the NAM is south as well.

 

[gosaints]

Looks like a boring week ahead and not nearly as cold as previously expected.  Looks like in the end neither camp was right...

[Geos]

I think the case this week will be a couple spells of cold rain, maybe a few flurries at night at the tail end of the second wave.

[Money]

I think the case this week will be a couple spells of cold rain, maybe a few flurries at night at the tail end of the second wave.

 

lol