April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Geos, please show me where I said areas would get an inch of ice? I would love to see it.

 

Post 7 in the storm thread. You seemed to be on board with a big ZR event.

 

 

Posted 31 March 2014 - 09:11 AM

Bufkit still has 10+ for LSE and GRB. 0.5 fzr + qpf for LSE and over 10 inches of snow.

 

Over 4 here with 1+ qpf fzr

 

Post 15

 

Yup. Big FZR event again. Even for here, it stays FZR for pretty much all but 3 hours. 

 

 

 

No point in rehashing what happened now. The freezing rain was further north.

[Money]

I guess you missed where I made my official forecast and said 1/4 to 2/3 inch of FZR from LSE NE to GB right? 

[Geos]

Clouds are really thin today. Should be able to hit 50° if winds stay light enough.

 

I didn't search the whole thread Money. Your call seemed a bit on the heavy side. Anyways, LSE went straight from rain to snow on Friday. NE Wisconsin was the focus of the freezing rain where the lake ice and snow pack had more of an influence.

[tim the weatherman]

Post 7 in the storm thread. You seemed to be on board with a big ZR event.

 

Post 15

 

 

No point in rehashing what happened now. The freezing rain was further north.

i did not heard of a major ice storm in wisc with this storm.

[tim the weatherman]

Clouds are really thin today. Should be able to hit 50° if winds stay light enough.

i walked for a few and it is so nice that our cold weather has came to an end and all of our big snows are over so what it is said on this fourm is wrong.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the sun just came out, so should end up being a pretty nice day today. Hopefully up can make it to about 60.

 

Gonna be a pretty enjoyable week temperature-wise.

[Geos]

i walked for a few and it is so nice that our cold weather has came to an end and all of our big snows are over so what it is said on this fourm is wrong.

 

Upper Midwest is still game imo.

 

Cloud shield isn't very solid west of I-55.

 

[Money]

i walked for a few and it is so nice that our cold weather has came to an end and all of our big snows are over so what it is said on this fourm is wrong.

 

So snow has to end because you walked outside and it's nice?

 

LOL

[gosaints]

GFS much more progressive look.  Up and down sure but lost the idea of parking cold over the upper Midwest for days.  Was unrealistic in the first place

[tim the weatherman]

12z Euro Ensembles agree with the GFS in the long range with resurging cold shots over the eastern CONUS.  This would be a significant impact on the growing season in our region and in the south with possible freeze events.  Models are definitely looking colder and not warmer like they were this past week.  Looks like the west coast ridge and the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific is going to continue to be in the driver seat. 

 

Guess I made the right decision to come out west and enjoy the warmth!  All my friends out here have been asking me about the winter we had back in Chicago and how in comparison their unusual warm winter was here in AZ.  Tucson, AZ had the warmest winter on record.  The tale of 2 cities is sharp contrast.

this does fit for our last hard freeze that it will be good news for the farmers  for people that plants flowers for the spring and to plants vegatables for their garden.

[East Dubzz]

Up to 57 here, which is what guidance was. Really warmed up once the clouds starting breaking up a little bit.

[Geos]

Today is turning out to be like yesterday with temps in the low 50s. Several blocks from the lake though it is cool.

[gosaints]

GGEM is probably as bad as it could be and even it gets temps above freezing everday and after 2 days things are moderating

[Geos]

Up to 57° at RAC despite a light NE wind.

[Tom]

12z Euro...run after run its showing snow.  Even half those totals would be impressive for April.  Would not discount the possibility of the white stuff just yet.  Still days away to see how this system evolves.

[Tony]

Tom, are you trying to lure me back in again by showing the Euro

[Tom]

LOT is even mentioning the possibility of snow....we'll see

 

 

SOME MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SNOW
POTENTIAL BEFORE ANY PRECIP WRAPS UP...WHETHER THAT BE AT THE TAIL
END OF THE WEEKEND OR ON MONDAY. BY ONE WEEK FROM NOW...THAT IS
GETTING AWFULLY LATE FOR FROZEN PRECIP BUT WITH THE DEGREE OF COLD
AIR MOVING IN AND JUST THIS NEVER-ENDING COOL SEASON...HAVE
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL IN THAT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY PERIOD.

[Money]

People would freak if we got half that much snow like the euro is showing. 20+ is laughable lol

 

Not going to count out a solution like the euro though and it nailed last storm as the models all jumped to what it was showing all along.

[Money]

MKE

 

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COUPLED UPPER JET WILL AID IN PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGHS INTO ONE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER WI
ON SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGHS INTO ONE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL OPEN UP THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF KEEPS SHOWING A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER WI/IL WITH PLENTY
OF QPF ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW
FOR SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF
THE QPF ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHIFTS THE TROUGH OFF TO
THE EAST QUICKER WHICH WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH SNOW AND HAVE DRY
WEATHER BY MONDAY. WENT WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR THE FORECAST-
NO CONFIDENCE TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER.

BOTH MODELS AGREE ON COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
 

[BrianJK]

Someone needs to inform LOT and MKE weather offices that it can not snow because I hearing that if when walk outside feels good then that means it is impossible to snow anymore just maybe 1 last hard freeze so that means spring is here to stay

[Geos]

I wouldn't discount the EURO, but I would discount the amounts the Wxbell maps are showing. 

 

High of about 53° today.

[BrianJK]

Beautiful today.  Cant wait for this weekend.  Grid forecast: Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

[Tom]

GFS is notorious for skirting the energy east to quick and the Euro is biased keeping the energy hanging back farther west.  If this storm ejects out into the Plains just right it can phase into a pretty solid Spring time storm.

[Tom]

CFSv2 now brings some major warmth all the way up to the Canadian border around the 20th and sticks around for the rest of the month .  Could be the sustained pattern flip our region has been waiting for.

[Madtown]

can't wait for this storm on Sunday night-Monday

[tim the weatherman]

CFSv2 now brings some major warmth all the way up to the Canadian border around the 20th and sticks around for the rest of the month .  Could be the pattern flip our region has been waiting for.

the old farmers almanac says by the 18th thru the 21 warm 21th thru the 24 cool 25th thru 30 warm for us.

[Money]

Someone needs to inform LOT and MKE weather offices that it can not snow because I hearing that if when walk outside feels good then that means it is impossible to snow anymore just maybe 1 last hard freeze so that means spring is here to stay

 

I love how he thanks this post even though you were mocking him lol

 

Anyways 18z GFS is more amped than 12z and takes a L farther north/stronger. Trend towards the Euro.

[gosaints]

the old farmers almanac says by the 18th thru the 21 warm 21th thru the 24 cool 25th thru 30 warm for us.

Farmers almanac? Really?

[MKEstorm]

I wouldn't discount the EURO, but I would discount the amounts the Wxbell maps are showing. 

 

High of about 53° today.

 

Exactly! Wxbell maps are always nuts anyways! But, ya, the possibility for snow is there. None of the other models are showing this though, so the Euro is the outlier...but it's not budging.  

[East Dubzz]

Farmers almanac? Really?

It's pretty darn accurate.

[tim the weatherman]

CFSv2 now brings some major warmth all the way up to the Canadian border around the 20th and sticks around for the rest of the month .  Could be the sustained pattern flip our region has been waiting for.

this is indicating tha the epo and the wpo by then will flipped to positve so that means like you said a wile back tom that the country will be flooded by sustained warmth by the 20th of this month.

[Geos]

Interesting new look to the forum. Looks like it has been over hauled quite a bit.

 

Well Easter looks mild on the GFS as of now! 

Looks like 80s in the High Plains that week.

[tim the weatherman]

just now finding out that there is a significant winter storm by 13 to 15th of this month that is targeting ne kansas to michigan and andrew of the weather centre said that the threat is very low.

[gosaints]

It's pretty darn accurate.

???

[Tom]

Sending you some warm weather thoughts from Fountain Hills, AZ...hit 84F today under prestine blue sky's.

 

 

 

[Geos]

just now finding out that there is a significant winter storm by 13 to 15th of this month that is targeting ne kansas to michigan and andrew of the weather centre said that the threat is very low.

 

He mentions; most importantly, the ensembles aren't biting on the idea yet.

 

---

 

Nice picture Tom! Wish there was some yellow flowers to look at here. haha

[Money]

Geos doesn't mention this part either

 

There is some merit to the idea that we may see a strong storm system, as the ECMWF is suggesting. Shown above was the observed 500mb height anomaly chart over the Western Pacific, where cool colors depict negative height anomalies/stormy weather, and warm colors represent quiet, warm weather. On the morning of April 6th, we saw a trough moving through Japan, possessing a pretty decent strength. This is significant, as it directly relates to what we may see in this April 13-15 timeframe .There is a rule, well explained by Joe Renken, that states a weather phenomenon in East Asia will be reciprocated in the United States 6-10 days later. This means that if there is a storm system in Japan on a certain day, we can expect a storm in the US 6-10 days after that. The same goes for high pressure and warm weather. Thus, we can expect a storm in the US on an April 12-16 period, and the April 13-15 ECMWF snowstorm falls right within this timeframe. Additionally, this trough in Japan brought along some pretty cold weather, which COULD contribute to additional chances for snow in this potential storm system. - See more at:

 

This sort of weaker projection is to be expected, as these ensemble means take the average of 52 ensemble members, unlike the ECMWF model, which only shows one solution. The next item we observe is the swath of oranges and yellows over the Plains and Midwest. These warmer colors indicate a higher spread in the ensembles; in other words, the ensemble members are in higher disagreement with one another over this higher spread envelope, thus indicating increased uncertainty. While this would initially disprove the idea of a storm system in this timeframe, note how the highest spread is located further west of the ensemble low pressure alignment, more in line with the ECMWF model. All in all, this means that the ensembles are seeing this idea of a storm, but aren't biting yet. 

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/#sthash.yp9AFm6L.dpuf

 

Geos rooting hard for this to not happen.

[Money]

He mentions; most importantly, the ensembles aren't biting on the idea yet.

 

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Nice picture Tom! Wish there was some yellow flowers to look at here. haha

 

 

The euro ensembles have 52 members, do you really expect most of them to have the same solution 144-168 hours out? He even said that the colors on the map show that the majority are west of the ensemble mean like the OP. Of course you are going to have some outliers when you are this far out which is going to screw up the ensemble mean. 

[Tom]

He mentions; most importantly, the ensembles aren't biting on the idea yet.

 

---

 

Nice picture Tom! Wish there was some yellow flowers to look at here. haha

The flowers are all blooming here and the majority of them are all vibrant yellows, pinks and reds...Cactus's should start blooming next month.  Going to get Hot around here Wed/Thu/Fri with highs in mid 90's.  Anything above 95F starts getting uncomfortable, but when the sun sets the temps drop because of the dry air and nights are very comfortable.

 

We get wild Bobcats, Havalina Pigs, Coyotes and Jack Rabbits to roam around here since this town is on the outskirts of the city/suburbs.

[Geos]

The euro ensembles have 52 members, do you really expect most of them to have the same solution 144-168 hours out? He even said that the colors on the map show that the majority are west of the ensemble mean like the OP. Of course you are going to have some outliers when you are this far out which is going to screw up the ensemble mean. 

 

I read the entire article. It's a red flag when most of the ensembles are in disagreement or don't even show an organized storm system within 7 days.

 

Significant April snow possible, but not as big as what the EURO op run shows.