April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

Let me get this right, so you live near La Crosse, WI, probably without a Mathematics Degree, more than likely you hate Math, but you still have the balls to mock an educated Meteorologist, in fact, who has a Doctorates Degree, who more than likely has a higher degree of education than you, who works for a reputable firm that was started from the ground up and has achieved more than you in your lifetime.

 

I'd say that Dr. Ryan Maue, who wrote these algorithms, did a far better job than what you would have programmed. Enough said.

So you are saying someone that can write an algorithm for a snow map better than a biomedical engineer should be able to post then online and then have others post them like they are gospel and have it be OK? I have no doubt that he could make a better map but they are just trying to sell a product but I guess you fail to realize that.

[gosaints]

Please show me where I said people were gonna get 12+

 

PLEASE show me. I never said that it was a guaranteed big snowstorm.

 

You have serious reading problems.

You hit the crap out of the last 2 storms posting citing crappy map after crappy map without even looking at anything other than 850mb temps

[Money]

I never posted any map. I don't even have access to the euro maps.

[gosaints]

Please show me where I said people were gonna get 12+

 

PLEASE show me. I never said that it was a guaranteed big snowstorm.

 

You have serious reading problems.

The last storm tom predicted widespread 1 to 2 foot amounts because that's what the LRC told him

[Money]

He never predicted that. Never.

 

You sir are a joke. Have a good night.

[gosaints]

I never posted any map. I don't even have access to the euro maps.

You have bought high on every storm since the beginning of march

[gosaints]

He never predicted that. Never.

 

You sir are a joke. Have a good night.

He did to without a doubt

[NEJeremy]

Wow, I don't check this board for a couple of hours and I come to 33 posts of anger by gosaints. bad day?! geesh!!

[Money]

He did to without a doubt

 

I've been asking for proof of this and you keep ignoring it. If you're going to accuse someone of something have proof. 

[gosaints]

Wow, I don't check this board for a couple of hours and I come to 33 posts of anger by gosaints. bad day?! geesh!!

Anger or being realistic?

[Geos]

I think this current conversation between Money and GoSaints can be taken to private messaging at this point.

 

Let's get back on track and discuss what we do know and what the models show now.

 

On that note I'm going to start a thread for it. No matter what it brings. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/230-april-13-14th-spring-storm-system/

 

Climatology at this general latitude doesn't support big snow amounts in mid-April. Enough said there. Upper Midwest is different.

 

Imo, on the LRC - I think it does exist, but can be disrupted by strong ENSO events and solar flare activity. I'm skeptical whether it extends between late April/May to October though.

[The Snowman]

Tom you use overall weather patterns to predict individual storms. Its a joke

Not true, see the Typhoon Rule (also known as the East Asian correlation). Been dead on all winter.

[The Snowman]

I think this current conversation between Money and GoSaints can be taken to private messaging at this point.

 

Let's get back on track and discuss what we do know and what the models show now.

 

On that note I'm going to start a thread for it. No matter what it brings. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/230-april-13-14th-spring-storm-system/

 

Climatology at this general latitude doesn't support big snow amounts in mid-April. Enough said there. Upper Midwest is different.

 

Imo, on the LRC - I think it does exist, but can be disrupted by strong ENSO events and solar flare activity. I'm skeptical whether it extends between late April/May to October though.

I've communicated with a couple folks who really know their stuff with respect to the LRC, and the general feel is that the cycle forms in October-November, cycles thru winter, and begins to weaken in the spring-summer season before a new cycle begins.

[East Dubzz]

Once again it got much colder overnight than forecasted. Dropped down to 35, but it's on the rise now and looking at an awesome day today. Actually, I think tonight may be my first bonfire of the year!

[East Dubzz]

I wonder what's up with the temps going well below guidance for like 3 or 4 days in a row now. The temps still recover well and it's been hitting the high for the day basically right on target, but it's been getting cold at night.

[tim the weatherman]

looks like that nextweek could be our last hard freeze.

[Geos]

Once again it got much colder overnight than forecasted. Dropped down to 35, but it's on the rise now and looking at an awesome day today. Actually, I think tonight may be my first bonfire of the year!

 

It was like 34° here. A bit chilly, but the sun is full on this morning.

[Meichel]

35º overnight here as well. Up to 52º already under full sun, light SE breeze.

[East Dubzz]

Are the models continuing to show a good soaking for this weekend?

[Hawkeye]

My bird baths had ice in them this morning.  I was not expecting that.

[Tom]

Models are backing off on any warm up for Easter weekend and bringing in a trough over the region and temps in the 40's.  The below normal temp regime continues.  GGEM/EURO/GFS and CFSv2 are no longer showing much of a sustained warm up the next 10 Days.  This pattern seems like its not going to break in the Lakes/Midwest region.  Enjoy the 70's while you can this Saturday.  My decision coming out here to AZ makes it that much more enjoyable.  I'm in summer mode!  Spring can be a depressing season in Chicago, especially the way this one is shaping up to be coming out of a once in a century cold season Dec-Mar.

[Sciascia]

GFS dumping snow in C & N WI. 144hrs out showing widespread 6-12+". 144hrs out still, but something to see.

[Geos]

Imo, we've switched too another pattern. Everything is more progressive/transitory. Sure we'll have below normal days, but I think they will be more evenly distributed by the time we close out the month (with the exception of areas with snow cover and near it.) - close to 50/50.

 

Up to 63° at the noon hour here in Racine. 74° in my grid tomorrow! 

[Tom]

Overall, the 500mb pattern has been consistent since Fall of last year as well as the storm track thus far into Spring.  I don't see that changing this month.  12z GFS still showing a chilly pattern over the Lakes, ridge in the west, same ol' song and dance.

[Tom]

CFSv2...trending cooler for next week.  Impressive Ridge poking high into the arctic regions near Alaska next week.  Same pattern we have seen the past 4 months, this will be the April version.

[Geos]

Well we don't live at 500mb luckly. Surface departures should be as extreme as last month.

 

Actually I think the month is running a slight surplus now.

 

Flirting with 68° now at 3:15.

[Tom]

True, but temp departures have been reacting relatively the same but not as extreme as the winter months.

 

That 68F temp must feel wonderful out there!  Tomorrow should be down right gorgeous.  I'm sure a lot of ppl will be doing some Spring cleaning Saturday and opening up their windows.  Next weeks cool off will bring back the temp deficit for the month.

[Tom]

It's official, ORD has hit 70F!

[Hawkeye]

As of last night the forecast was upper 60s, but we are sitting at 74 now.

[th_snow]

Hit 57 for a high today. My warmest temp of the year so far. Snow depth down to 9". It was 28" one week ago today.  Many roads in the area are closed due to the flooding caused by the snowmelt.

[Geos]

Yeah 68° was the high today. Many, many people outside today and a lot of people out in general! People will probably be outside late into the evening. Still in the 60s now.

[East Dubzz]

Got to 70 here today. Felt so nice out.

[Geos]

Local predicted highs tomorrow.

 

[Steblow]

best day of the yr but nothing special becasue of clouds and wind.. liking this nice slow warm up for the body and around june we get 1st 80.   Pretty much all brown yet here except sun baked areas starting to add some color but still mostly brown mixed in...   Prob wont be until around may 1st for the first cut i would guess.

[Tom]

Never to late to look ahead into next Winter and see what the models are showing.  I used the theory last Spring that if you have a back loaded winter you typically see a Fast start to the following Winter.  We did in fact see a fast start to winter this past season and winter kept coming even into March, some folks saw it into early April and we are not finished with this month.

 

Having said that, there are 2 reasons why I do believe we will have another fast start to winter yet again next year.  1) Another Spring with cold/snow  2) Warm waters near NE Pacific

 

I took a look at the CFSv2 tonight and its now in range to show signs of what I'm thinking for the following winter.  Looks like another fast start coming in November.  500mb pattern has a classic cold signal, I didn't post the precip maps but they look real wet east of the Rockies from NE/KS ENE into the Lakes (signs of an active subtropical jet stream thanks to a forming El Nino).  I will post these maps from time to time during the Spring/Summer season just to fill everyone in.

 

 

[Money]

GFS dumping snow in C & N WI. 144hrs out showing widespread 6-12+". 144hrs out still, but something to see.

 

GGEM showing this too but not as much. 

[Money]

GGEM actually showing snow from HR 108-120 in S/C/N WI and still snowing at HR 120

 

Precip hourly Maps:

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/SN_000-240_0000.gif

[Money]

GFS with 12+ from just n of GB into N. WI for the midweek storm. 

[Money]

Also has 12+ in Nebraska and 6+ in most of Minnesota. 

[Money]

GGEM however is farther south bringing snow to gosaints and east-central WI

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif