April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

You should tell RC yourself; you know where he posts lol.

 

I don't even think he works at that location. 

 

EURO showing 70s region wide for Easter. A lot of people will be lovin' that! Big thaw down in the northwoods starting at Easter.

[james1976]

yeah that snowstorm up north looks awesome!
local met calling for 70 next wednesday. very awesome. time for severe weather season to kick in.

[Niko]

Happy Easter everyone!  I will be going to New York City with my wife for Easter to visit family and friends. Will be gone a week. Leaving Friday.  Cant wait to eat some NY Pizza...yUM yUM.

[tim the weatherman]

i would of say that the forecast for the next two weeks looks good so that means no more snow for the central and east conus and we could be looking at severe weather too.

[Geos]

Euro showing these highs through 04/25 here.

 

58, 48, 51, 72, 68, 58, 54, 72, 66

 

I'm reading to track MCS complex's now!

[Hawkeye]

Just north and nw of the Twin Cities this storm dropped 12-17 inches.

[Geos]

@ Hawkeye - yeah I was just looking at that! Mainly the northern suburbs got the snow. Pretty amazing for mid-April.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=snowtotals

 

A lot milder this morning. At 43° currently.

[East Dubzz]

Still pretty chilly this morning. 36 as of 9 AM.

[Money]

I thought it couldn't accumulate that much in April?

[Tom]

Models are starting to come into agreement of a tanking -NAO during the last week of April.  Both EURO/GFS agree, certainly will have an impact on temps late month into May.  Big Spring storm shaping up for late next week.  Might be a huge severe wx outbreak somewhere in Plains/Midwest.

[Madtown]

19" at our place up north

[Tom]

Duluth hit 5th snowiest on record sitting at 125.3", record is 135.4", one or two more late season storms and they are in business.  Pattern may be setting up for some more snow chances late month for the Northwoods.

[Tom]

Pattern may get nasty in the lakes late month...GFS flipped cooler, CFSv2 still showing below normal temps.  Enjoy next week while you can.  As soon as the pattern warms, you can see the colder air coming.  Seems like this is the type of pattern shaping up for this Spring.

[Geos]

On the other side of things the CFS is hammering a dry (east), wet (Plains) and warm May.

 

 

 

This month looks to go down as above normal as it looks now.

[Tom]

Let's see if the CFSv2 continues to stay warm as we head into late April, this model tends to flip as we get closer to the target month.  It's teleconnection forecast wouldn't support a warm May, but that may change.

[East Dubzz]

Actually feels pretty nice out today. I, of course, would like it to be his a little bit warmer, but we're getting closer to that. I just hope it doesn't go straight from colder like this to really hot, because I'm not a fan of mid-80s or higher either, especially with humidity.

[Tom]

I don't think the month will end up above normal with the rest of the month looking like this.....next 45 days looking cooler than normal.

[Tom]

CPC indicating a cooler than normal lakes region for May and no heat waves/droughts in the heartland this summer.  Should be a great growing season.

[FiNsTa]

Let's see if the CFSv2 continues to stay warm as we head into late April, this model tends to flip as we get closer to the target month.  It's teleconnection forecast wouldn't support a warm May, but that may change.

toss it

[Tom]

Just look at the NOAA forecast, they usually have an under done forecast for below normal temps.  I wouldn't buy into a warm May just yet.  JMA comes out tomorrow and if its showing cooler than normal temps, I'd say that is locked in.  Below normal pattern has been locked in since November, its trying to break in April, but look what is coming last 8-10 days of April.

[Geos]

CPC indicating a cooler than normal lakes region for May and no heat waves/droughts in the heartland this summer.  Should be a great growing season.

 

We can't assume zero heat waves! We always get at least one unfortunately.

 

EURO definitely not on board with a cool finish to the month. I think a +1° departure is possible locally.

 

EURO highs Friday through next Saturday here. Few cool days, but not too bad.

 

49, 55, 70, 72, 53, 47, 58, 70, 50

[Tom]

I meant seeing prolong heat waves that last for days, even weeks on end.  I don't think that type of pattern is expected this summer.  Sure you'll see 4 or 5, 6 days of real warmth but not lasting to long.  Maybe a pattern like last year where we had lots of rain chances along with plenty cool fronts coming out of Canada.

[james1976]

Des Moines talking thunderstorms sunday and strong to possible sever storms throughout much of next week. And dewpoints rising to 60. Summertime weather!

[james1976]

this system next week sounds rather impressive. i havent looked at models too much so im just going off what i have been reading.

[Tom]

00z EURO/GGEM/CFSv2 not to glamorous with warm up end of month.  Pretty solid cold pool developing in Plains/Midwest/Lakes.

[Tom]

Meanwhile, 12z GFS with a torch....lol...oh long range GFS...

[Tom]

CFSv2 not looking pretty....

 

[The Snowman]

Think we see a warm end to April, followed by cool beginning to May.

[Tom]

00z Euro showing some real chilly air from N IL on north towards day 8-10.  Highs near 40F and lower as you head north.  The below normal pattern continues...today and tomorrow should feel pretty good though.  Teleconnections not supporting any warming trend to close out the month IMO.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing HIGHS in the 30's from I-80 on north all the way from NE to IL next Monday!  Winter-like temps still want to hang around....there may be some records being broken last week of April.

[Geos]

I'd be inclined to toss the last two EURO and its highs in the 30s. Too cold to be supported in late April. Reality will likely be highs in the 40s with clouds and light rain.

Typical cut-off low weather.

 

GFS supports a western trough and central ridge during the medium range.

 

[Tom]

Not sure why you would toss the Euro when it has support from the GGEM/CFSv2.  We all know how bad the GFS can get in the 7-14 day range.  Low 40's are certainly possible, even upper 30's if this trough builds deeper.*

[tim the weatherman]

I'd be inclined to toss the last two EURO and its highs in the 30s. Too cold to be supported in late April. Reality will likely be highs in the 40s with clouds and light rain.

Typical cut-off low weather.

 

GFS supports a western trough and central ridge during the medium range.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_2_nh.gif

http://tribunecwcblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/feature04192014.jpgthis is the chicago weather center is saying for the 11 to 15 day forecast from april 29 to may 3.

[th_snow]

Made it up to 40 today. Had some sleet and light rain this morning. 0.12" of total precipitation.

[East Dubzz]

Made it up to 40 today. Had some sleet and light rain this morning. 0.12" of total precipitation.

Wow that's chilly. Great day here, got up to 69. Had a baseball tournament yesterday and today, some very enjoyable weather.

[th_snow]

Wow that's chilly. Great day here, got up to 69. Had a baseball tournament yesterday and today, some very enjoyable weather.

I better get used to it. 40s with a lake breeze will probably be the norm around here for the spring.

[gosaints]

Not sure why you would toss the Euro when it has support from the GGEM/CFSv2. We all know how bad the GFS can get in the 7-14 day range. Low 40's are certainly possible, even upper 30's if this trough builds deeper.*

Hate to say it tom but your crazy calls lately have come up short.

[The Snowman]

Looking more & more like we're in for a warm-ish end to April, and now even a warm start to May. Development of a decent -PNA regime in the 1-2 week timeframe, as well as a strong ridge blossoming over Japan in late April means we're in for some solidly springlike weather to progress deeper into spring. Beyond that, some cooler/seasonal temperatures are expected.

[gosaints]

 

Looking more & more like we're in for a warm-ish end to April, and now even a warm start to May. Development of a decent -PNA regime in the 1-2 week timeframe, as well as a strong ridge blossoming over Japan in late April means we're in for some solidly springlike weather to progress deeper into spring. Beyond that, some cooler/seasonal temperatures are expected.[/quote

 

Oh fun snowman versus tom

[Geos]

this is the chicago weather center is saying for the 11 to 15 day forecast from april 29 to may 3.

 

Seems to be a lot of discrepancy what the pattern will do in the mid to long range.

 

My guess is April will be normal or slightly above normal in the lower Lakes. 

 

30s for highs during the last few days of April is crazy as seeing 70s in December! 

 

54° was the high today. Lots of people were outside today, despite the lake breezes. Noticed roadside shrubs are starting to push out green leaves now.